{"id":1792,"date":"2021-11-19T11:38:05","date_gmt":"2021-11-19T11:38:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/?p=1792"},"modified":"2021-11-19T11:38:05","modified_gmt":"2021-11-19T11:38:05","slug":"breakfast-costs-a-bigger-problem-14767","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/breakfast-costs-a-bigger-problem-14767\/","title":{"rendered":"\u2018Breakfast\u2019 costs a bigger problem"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>A 55% surge in our \u2018breakfast\u2019 cost index the past year is outpacing the commodity rally and piling cost pressures on many. This is boosting inflation, interest rates, and price restrictions in emerging markets (EM) especially, and contributes to our investment caution there. Worse may be to come, with La Nina weather disruption forecast this winter and could impact key southern hemisphere producers. Ag \u2018producers\u2019 from Deere (D) to Mosaic (MOS) benefit and \u2018users\u2019 like Kraft (KHC) suffer.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_84 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/breakfast-costs-a-bigger-problem-14767\/#%E2%80%98BREAKFAST_INDEX\" >\u2018BREAKFAST INDEX\u2019<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/breakfast-costs-a-bigger-problem-14767\/#LA_NINA\" >LA NINA<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/breakfast-costs-a-bigger-problem-14767\/#INFLATION\" >INFLATION<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E2%80%98BREAKFAST_INDEX\"><\/span>\u2018BREAKFAST INDEX\u2019<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Our equal-weight index of eight popular breakfast items, from sugar to wheat, has led the broader commodity rally. Gains the past year have been led by oats (+130%), coffee (70%), wheat and OJ (both 50%) with cocoa (6%) the only laggard.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"LA_NINA\"><\/span>LA NINA<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>US Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/news\/double-dip-la-nina-emerges\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">NOAA<\/a>) is forecasting a 90% chance of a \u2018double-dip\u2019 La Nina weather phenomenon, for the second winter in a row. This normally drives dry weather in Argentina and Brazil, two of the largest ag exporters.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"INFLATION\"><\/span>INFLATION<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>The UN (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.fao.org\/worldfoodsituation\/foodpricesindex\/en\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">FAO<\/a>) food price index is at a decade high. Food costs are rising below inflation in developed markets, but well above in EM\u2019s like Brazil, Mexico, Turkey, Russia, South Africa, Indonesia. Food is a bigger proportion of spending and inflation indices, and less processed. 72 of 77 interest rate hikes this year have been in EM. <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-1793\" src=\"http:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/BREAKFAST-INDEX.png\" alt=\"BREAKFAST INDEX\" width=\"787\" height=\"359\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/BREAKFAST-INDEX.png 787w, https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/BREAKFAST-INDEX-300x137.png 300w, https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/BREAKFAST-INDEX-768x350.png 768w, https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/BREAKFAST-INDEX-696x317.png 696w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 787px) 100vw, 787px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Ben Laidler, eToro<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A 55% surge in our \u2018breakfast\u2019 cost index the past year is outpacing the commodity rally and piling cost pressures on many. This is boosting inflation, interest rates, and price restrictions in emerging markets (EM) especially, and contributes to our investment caution there. Worse may be to come, with La Nina weather disruption forecast this [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1094,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[6],"tags":[2481,2482,3233,34],"class_list":["post-1792","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-finance","tag-ben-laidler","tag-etoro","tag-oceanic","tag-russia"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1792","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1792"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1792\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1094"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1792"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1792"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1792"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}