{"id":3423,"date":"2023-10-09T07:32:00","date_gmt":"2023-10-09T07:32:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/?p=3423"},"modified":"2023-10-09T07:37:36","modified_gmt":"2023-10-09T07:37:36","slug":"gold-under-pressure-but-not-for-long-66481","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/gold-under-pressure-but-not-for-long-66481\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold under pressure, but not for long"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The price of gold continues to be under pressure from a strong dollar and high returns on US bonds due to the Federal Reserve&#8217;s stance. The motto of &#8220;higher for longer&#8221; is a call to maintain interest rates at their current level for an extended period of time. The National Bank of Poland (NBP) has no dilemmas and is slashing rates amid significantly higher inflation.<\/p>\n<p>The gold price quoted in the US dollar has reached levels last seen in March of this year, hovering in recent days around $1,820 per ounce.<\/p>\n<p>The Federal Reserve and its &#8220;higher for longer&#8221; campaign, which pledges to keep interest rates at current (or higher) levels for an extended period, are responsible for this state of affairs. Real interest rates in the USA are currently positive (exceeding inflation), which strengthens the dollar, increases bond yields, making bonds and bank deposits more attractive for many market players compared to gold.<\/p>\n<p>However, not for everyone \u2013 the low price of gold attracts those who use gold as a safe haven and as a way of storing value regardless of market conditions. Demand stays high.<\/p>\n<p>There are therefore two things worth noting: gold is currently heavily oversold, and despite the Fed&#8217;s &#8220;higher for longer&#8221; stance, it will not be able to maintain interest rates at such a high level for an extended period of time due to, among other things, public debt. Sooner or later it will have to cut.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_84 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/gold-under-pressure-but-not-for-long-66481\/#Will_the_Fed_hike_rates_further_this_year\" >Will the Fed hike rates further this year?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/gold-under-pressure-but-not-for-long-66481\/#NBP_has_no_dilemmas\" >NBP has no dilemmas<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Will_the_Fed_hike_rates_further_this_year\"><\/span>Will the Fed hike rates further this year?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>According to the FedWatch Tool, the probability that the US central bank will raise rates in November is just 19.6%. In December it&#8217;s 29.4%. With each passing week, these values decrease, while public statements by various representatives of the institution have a dual tone: either we will have the end of the rate hike cycle, or we will see another 25 basis points increase this year.<\/p>\n<p>This shows that despite the strong declaration of &#8220;higher for longer&#8221;, the Federal Reserve is not unanimous, and it&#8217;s more of a &#8220;wait and see&#8221; approach. Jerome Powell himself is quoted as saying in Jackson Hole, &#8220;we navigate by the stars under cloudy skies&#8221;, which ultimately reflects US inflation fighting nature.<\/p>\n<p>Inflation in the USA has been falling since June of last year, from 9.1 to 3% in June of this year. However, July and August brought hikes despite higher interest rates, reported at 3.2 and 3.7%, respectively.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"NBP_has_no_dilemmas\"><\/span>NBP has no dilemmas<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Following a sharp cut in September, the NBP reduced rates again in October, this time by only 25 basis points. The zloty did not react as sharply, nor did it strengthen significantly. However, inflation fell &#8211; in September prices grew at a rate of 8.2% annually (compared with 10.1% in August), and it was the first time since February 2022 when this figure was single-digit.<\/p>\n<p>Nevertheless, let&#8217;s delve into the nuances \u2013 fuel prices for private transport fell by 7%. However, the pace of growth in food and energy carriers fell slightly, and are currently at 10.3% and 9.9%, respectively.<\/p>\n<p>Lower inflation in September could serve to legitimize current actions by the Monetary Policy Council, and thereby lead to further interest rate cuts, despite the fact that Poland&#8217;s real interest rates are negative.<\/p>\n<p>Author: Micha\u0142 Tekli\u0144ski, Director for International Markets in Goldenmark Group<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The price of gold continues to be under pressure from a strong dollar and high returns on US bonds due to the Federal Reserve&#8217;s stance. The motto of &#8220;higher for longer&#8221; is a call to maintain interest rates at their current level for an extended period of time. The National Bank of Poland (NBP) has [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2754,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[14],"tags":[3070,3495,3463,3263,64,3496,2692,2727],"class_list":["post-3423","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-investing","tag-fed","tag-jerome-powell","tag-michal-teklinski","tag-nbp","tag-poland","tag-powell","tag-sharp","tag-usa"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3423","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3423"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3423\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2754"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3423"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3423"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3423"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}