{"id":3577,"date":"2023-10-10T10:38:42","date_gmt":"2023-10-10T10:38:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/?p=3577"},"modified":"2023-10-10T10:38:42","modified_gmt":"2023-10-10T10:38:42","slug":"polish-zloty-defies-market-trends-34994","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/polish-zloty-defies-market-trends-34994\/","title":{"rendered":"Polish Zloty Defies Market Trends"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Polish Currency Defies Market Trends: Amidst the end of the interest rate hike cycle in the US and the fading impact of Middle Eastern conflicts.<\/strong><\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_84 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/polish-zloty-defies-market-trends-34994\/#Markets_Have_Short_Memories\" >Markets Have Short Memories<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/polish-zloty-defies-market-trends-34994\/#End_of_the_Cycle_in_the_US\" >End of the Cycle in the US<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/polish-zloty-defies-market-trends-34994\/#Unexpected_Rally_of_the_Polish_Zloty\" >Unexpected Rally of the Polish Z\u0142oty<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Markets_Have_Short_Memories\"><\/span>Markets Have Short Memories<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>The situation in the Middle East quickly fades from the headlines of economic news outlets. On one hand, oil and gold prices remain elevated, but stock markets are rapidly returning to growth. On the other, local stock indices and the currency are still under significant pressure. Since last Friday&#8217;s close, the Israeli shekel has lost about 2.5% of its value against the dollar, reflecting the scale of market apprehension. Global markets, however, were much more concerned about a broad escalation of the conflict. The lack of escalation is what&#8217;s behind the visible sigh of relief on many stock market charts. This doesn&#8217;t mean that the situation in Israel has calmed down. Hostages are still being held, human tragedies continue, and retaliatory actions persist. However, the chances of escalation into a full-scale armed conflict are diminishing, though the scenario still exists.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"End_of_the_Cycle_in_the_US\"><\/span>End of the Cycle in the US<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Looking at the futures contracts for interest rates, it seems that the US is coming to the end of its interest rate hike cycle. Just a week ago, the odds for keeping the interest rates at the current level were only marginally higher. 53.3% for maintaining the current rates until the end of the year and 46.7% for an increase presented a very balanced situation. Today, contracts predicting unchanged rates are already at 69%. Given that interest rates already exceed inflation by about 1.5%, this scenario seems very rational. The receding chance of interest rate hikes works against the dollar. As a result, we may finally have the first week in three months where the dollar doesn&#8217;t strengthen against the euro.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Unexpected_Rally_of_the_Polish_Zloty\"><\/span>Unexpected Rally of the Polish Z\u0142oty<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>It appears that we are witnessing a pre-election speculation on the Polish z\u0142oty. For the past week, there&#8217;s been a trend strengthening the Polish currency, which, despite its momentum, doesn&#8217;t seem to have a strong correlation with events. Decreasing interest rates should be weakening the z\u0142oty, but this hasn&#8217;t happened. The conflict in the Middle East should also typically result in the weakening of emerging market currencies against major global ones. Yet, despite a series of negative triggers, the z\u0142oty continues its rally. The euro rate dropped below 4.56 today, whereas just last week it hovered around 4.64 z\u0142. The dollar rate, in the same period, has fallen by an impressive 12 groszy.<\/p>\n<p>Today&#8217;s macroeconomic calendar lacks significant readings, but that doesn&#8217;t change the fact that the markets have been very active post-weekend.<\/p>\n<p>Maciej Przyg\u00f3rzewski \u2013 Chief Analyst at InternetowyKantor.pl and Walutomat.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Polish Currency Defies Market Trends: Amidst the end of the interest rate hike cycle in the US and the fading impact of Middle Eastern conflicts. Markets Have Short Memories The situation in the Middle East quickly fades from the headlines of economic news outlets. On one hand, oil and gold prices remain elevated, but stock [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2456,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[14],"tags":[3368,3369,3473],"class_list":["post-3577","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-investing","tag-internetowykantor-pl","tag-maciej-przygorzewski","tag-walutomat"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3577","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3577"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3577\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2456"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3577"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3577"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3577"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}