{"id":4933,"date":"2026-04-14T10:01:28","date_gmt":"2026-04-14T10:01:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/?p=4933"},"modified":"2026-04-14T10:01:28","modified_gmt":"2026-04-14T10:01:28","slug":"constitutional-majority-for-tisza-marks-political-earthquake-in-hungary-58972","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/constitutional-majority-for-tisza-marks-political-earthquake-in-hungary-58972\/","title":{"rendered":"Constitutional Majority for TISZA Marks Political Earthquake in Hungary"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>TISZA\u2019s victory, bringing Viktor Orb\u00e1n\u2019s 16-year rule to an end, does not come as a major surprise. What did shake the markets, however, was the scale of the win. A historic mobilisation of Hungarian voters allowed the opposition party to secure 137 seats, giving it a constitutional majority. The forint and the Hungarian stock market are posting substantial gains.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The most optimistic market scenario has materialised: the opposition TISZA has won more than 132 seats, guaranteeing a constitutional majority. This makes it possible, among other things, to amend the constitution without opposition support and to adopt or change so-called \u201ccardinal laws\u201d covering issues such as electoral law, the status of public media, the powers of the judiciary, and certain tax and budget matters.<br \/>\n<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-381490\" src=\"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/1.-Podzial-mandatow-w-wegierskim-parlamencie-stan-na-13.04.webp\" alt=\"Chart 1: Distribution of seats in the Hungarian parliament (as of 13 April)\" width=\"1280\" height=\"779\" title=\"\"><\/p>\n<p>Although, in our view, TISZA\u2019s victory had been partly priced in by investors (we see it as one of the factors behind the strong appreciation of the currency in 2025), markets did not assign a particularly high probability to a scenario in which the opposition would secure a constitutional majority. This explains the remarkable scale of the appreciation of the Hungarian currency, which has strengthened by more than 4% against the reference euro in recent days. Optimism is also visible on the Budapest Stock Exchange. Over the past week, Hungary\u2019s BUX index has recorded gains of nearly 10%.<\/p>\n<p>For investors, the key takeaway is that we can expect a significant warming of relations between Budapest and Brussels \u2014 an end to veto politics, constructive cooperation with Brussels, and preparation of the country for potential euro adoption. Over the coming months, this should lead to the unlocking of EUR 8.4 billion from the Cohesion Fund and EUR 9.5 billion from the RRF, as well as approval of a low-interest loan plan under the SAFE programme (EUR 17.4 billion). We expect this to provide a meaningful growth stimulus for the Hungarian economy.<\/p>\n<p>We also draw attention to:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>the rule of law and the fight against corruption:<\/strong> Magyar has announced plans to hold the National System of Cooperation (NER) to account, join the European Public Prosecutor\u2019s Office (EPPO), and ensure full transparency in the spending of public funds;<\/li>\n<li><strong>the model of democracy and the approach to state media:<\/strong> restoring pluralism \u2014 for example by limiting the prime minister\u2019s term to 8 years or allowing citizens to directly elect the president \u2014 is one of TISZA\u2019s priorities. Considerable attention is also being paid to the depoliticisation of public media;<\/li>\n<li><strong>the approach to Russia and the war in Ukraine:<\/strong> unlike Fidesz, TISZA supports maintaining sanctions against Russia and providing humanitarian aid to Ukraine. In his speeches, Magyar has announced a gradual reduction of energy dependence on Russia. He does not rule out Ukraine\u2019s accession to the EU in the long term, though not through an accelerated process;<\/li>\n<li><strong>values:<\/strong> although also conservative, TISZA is seen as a party that is decidedly more centrist and liberal than Fidesz. Magyar is far more cautious on issues related to LGBT rights, uses a more inclusive definition of patriotism, and treats Christianity in a less instrumental way.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Despite appearances, however, TISZA has much in common with Fidesz. Magyar consistently describes himself as a \u201cconservative liberal\u201d. Like Viktor Orb\u00e1n, he fought for right-wing voters by referring in his rhetoric to national values, patriotism, and the country\u2019s Christian roots.<\/p>\n<p>Their shared features include:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>migration policy:<\/strong> TISZA has declared that it will keep the border fence built by Orb\u00e1n on the border with Serbia and supports a hard-line anti-immigration policy. In many votes on this issue, it has maintained a common front with Fidesz in the European Parliament;<\/li>\n<li><strong>pro-family policy:<\/strong> Magyar stresses that this was one of the \u201cfew good things\u201d in Fidesz\u2019s record and only requires refinement. His party\u2019s election programme includes, among other things:<\/li>\n<li>doubling the family allowance, which has not been indexed for years,<\/li>\n<li>introducing a one-off childbirth benefit,<\/li>\n<li>maintaining tax relief for families with children,<\/li>\n<li>preserving preferential housing loan schemes,<\/li>\n<li>introducing tax relief for mothers in large families;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Christian values:<\/strong> the new prime minister emphasises his attachment to Catholic values, and TISZA\u2019s programme includes a reference to protecting \u201cChristian culture\u201d. It is worth recalling that one of Hungary\u2019s largest demonstrations in recent years began in front of St Stephen\u2019s Basilica;<\/li>\n<li><strong>elements of state interventionism:<\/strong> despite being more liberal than Fidesz, TISZA is not a free-market party per se. Notable points include its willingness to:<\/li>\n<li>support sectors and companies considered strategically important for the state;<\/li>\n<li>intervene in the housing construction sector;<\/li>\n<li>continue controlling energy prices for households;<\/li>\n<li>undertake significant public investments, using EU funds.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Who is Hungary\u2019s new prime minister?<\/h2>\n<p>The story of the 45-year-old is particularly interesting because he spent half of his life associated with Fidesz \u2014 he was already active in local party structures during his student years, when the party was in opposition to the MSZP (Hungarian Socialist Party) government. After Fidesz returned to power in 2010, he began working at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He later served as part of Hungary\u2019s Permanent Representation to the EU, the Prime Minister\u2019s Office, and the legal departments of major state-owned enterprises.<\/p>\n<p>However, he never rose through the party ranks the way his former wife, Judit Varga, did, becoming justice minister in 2019. Senior politicians did not regard Magyar, who repeatedly criticised government actions in internal disputes, as a \u201cteam player\u201d, and the breakdown of his relationship with Varga only pushed him further from Fidesz\u2019s inner circle.<\/p>\n<p>The turning point came with the scandal surrounding the presidential pardon granted to Endre Konyi, who had been convicted of covering up paedophile crimes. The media\u2019s disclosure of details of the case in February 2024 remains one of the most severe crises for Fidesz to this day \u2014 it led to the resignation of President Katalin Nov\u00e1k and Justice Minister Judit Varga, who was already Magyar\u2019s former wife.<\/p>\n<p>Magyar saw in this situation the opportunity of a lifetime and shortly afterwards released an audio recording of Varga concerning the most high-profile corruption case of recent years (Schadl\u2013V\u00f6lner). He also gave an interview to the opposition-linked Partiz\u00e1n YouTube channel, which was viewed more than one million times within a few days and has now reached 2.5 million views.<\/p>\n<p>Momentum around Magyar grew at an alarming pace, allowing TISZA, which he had joined only shortly before, to win nearly 30% of the vote in the European Parliament elections. Since then, the party\u2019s ratings have risen almost continuously, making it the unexpected favourite in the parliamentary election that it ultimately won. Magyar will take office as prime minister no later than 12 May \u2014 the inaugural sitting must be convened by President Tam\u00e1s Sulyok within one month of the election date.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>TISZA\u2019s victory, bringing Viktor Orb\u00e1n\u2019s 16-year rule to an end, does not come as a major surprise. What did shake the markets, however, was the scale of the win. A historic mobilisation of Hungarian voters allowed the opposition party to secure 137 seats, giving it a constitutional majority. The forint and the Hungarian stock market [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4934,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[4],"tags":[179,197,63,4491,2679,34,2907,51,2526,3735],"class_list":["post-4933","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-politics","tag-brussels","tag-construction-sector","tag-hungary","tag-lgbt","tag-media","tag-russia","tag-serbia","tag-ukraine","tag-war-in-ukraine","tag-youtube"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4933","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4933"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4933\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4934"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4933"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4933"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4933"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}