{"id":4944,"date":"2026-04-15T19:04:48","date_gmt":"2026-04-15T19:04:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/?p=4944"},"modified":"2026-04-15T19:04:48","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T19:04:48","slug":"polands-housing-market-in-q1-2026-mortgage-boom-shrinking-supply-and-a-secondary-market-comeback-54972","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/polands-housing-market-in-q1-2026-mortgage-boom-shrinking-supply-and-a-secondary-market-comeback-54972\/","title":{"rendered":"Poland\u2019s Housing Market in Q1 2026: Mortgage Boom, Shrinking Supply and a Secondary Market Comeback"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Strong demand growth, a record surge in mortgage interest, and a clear contrast between shrinking developer supply and a gradually recovering secondary market \u2013 this is how the beginning of the year can be summarized. According to Otodom experts, recent months have been marked by a market that is \u201crevived, but not yet overheated,\u201d with buyers navigating growing geopolitical uncertainty and diverging prices across cities.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_84 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/polands-housing-market-in-q1-2026-mortgage-boom-shrinking-supply-and-a-secondary-market-comeback-54972\/#Financing_boom_and_geopolitical_pressure\" >Financing boom and geopolitical pressure<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/polands-housing-market-in-q1-2026-mortgage-boom-shrinking-supply-and-a-secondary-market-comeback-54972\/#Fewer_new_residential_projects\" >Fewer new residential projects<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/polands-housing-market-in-q1-2026-mortgage-boom-shrinking-supply-and-a-secondary-market-comeback-54972\/#Secondary_market_regains_momentum\" >Secondary market regains momentum<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/polands-housing-market-in-q1-2026-mortgage-boom-shrinking-supply-and-a-secondary-market-comeback-54972\/#Price_divergence\" >Price divergence<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/polands-housing-market-in-q1-2026-mortgage-boom-shrinking-supply-and-a-secondary-market-comeback-54972\/#What_about_Q2\" >What about Q2?<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Financing_boom_and_geopolitical_pressure\"><\/span>Financing boom and geopolitical pressure<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>As noted by Waldemar Rogowski, Chief Analyst at BIK Group and Director of the Institute of Corporate Finance and Investment at SGH, the first quarter of 2026 brought exceptionally strong growth in the mortgage market. The scale is evident in the 144,000 individuals applying for housing loans during this period \u2013 up 47% compared to 2025 and as much as 83% compared to 2024.<\/p>\n<p>According to estimates, around 70,000 mortgages were granted over the past three months, with a total value of PLN 31 billion. Notably, 56% of this amount was concentrated in the seven largest metropolitan areas.<\/p>\n<p>This record demand, with an average requested loan amount reaching PLN 506,000, was driven primarily by continued interest rate cuts by the National Bank of Poland (down to 3.75% for the reference rate in March) and strong wage growth of 8\u201310% year-on-year. At the same time, geopolitical uncertainty related to the conflict in the Middle East and rising commodity prices accelerated purchasing decisions.<\/p>\n<p>Concerns about higher inflation and the potential return of rate hikes also contributed to a high share of refinancing activity (around 30% by volume and 25% by value). Among newly issued mortgages, 45% financed purchases on the secondary market, while 40% went to newly built properties.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Fewer_new_residential_projects\"><\/span>Fewer new residential projects<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>On the supply side, sentiment among developers was markedly different. According to Otodom data, developers remained cautious in the first quarter. Only 8,800 units were launched for sale across the seven largest markets \u2013 the lowest quarterly result in three years, down 23% quarter-on-quarter and 29% year-on-year.<\/p>\n<p>The sharpest declines were recorded in Wroc\u0142aw and Katowice (-48% and -44% respectively), followed by \u0141\u00f3d\u017a (-35%) and Pozna\u0144 (-33%). In Warsaw, new supply dropped by 24%, while Krak\u00f3w saw a 19% decline. The smallest reduction was observed in the Tricity area (-11%).<\/p>\n<p>At the same time, sales remained relatively strong. Around 12,700 units were sold in Q1 2026 \u2013 6% fewer than in Q4 2025 (preliminary data), but 31% higher year-on-year. As demand exceeded new supply for the second consecutive quarter, total developer inventory declined for the first time in nine quarters, reaching 58,900 units at the end of March \u2013 down 5% compared to the end of 2025.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cSurprisingly strong March sales were not enough to match the excellent results of Q1 2025, but they did shift sentiment on both sides of the developer market. Combined with declining supply, this has made outlooks for the housing market in major Polish cities more optimistic than a quarter ago,\u201d said Katarzyna Kuniewicz, Head of Market Research at Otodom.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Secondary_market_regains_momentum\"><\/span>Secondary market regains momentum<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>The situation in the secondary housing market has evolved differently. This segment entered a phase of moderate recovery, with supply gradually increasing. By the end of March, the number of active listings across the seven largest markets reached 41,600 \u2013 up 3% compared to January.<\/p>\n<p>The strongest growth in listings was recorded in Tricity and Pozna\u0144 (+6%), followed by Warsaw (+4%). Supply grew more slowly in \u0141\u00f3d\u017a and Wroc\u0142aw (+3%), and in Krak\u00f3w (+2%). Katowice was the only city to record a slight decline (-1%).<\/p>\n<p>Demand varied significantly across regions. Pozna\u0144 (+16% year-on-year) and Wroc\u0142aw (+11%) led in buyer interest, while Krak\u00f3w and Katowice saw declines in inquiries (-5% and -4% respectively).<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe increased activity in this segment is also driven by concerns about the future. According to a March 2026 Otodom and Kantar survey, as many as 59% of respondents expect further price increases, rising to 62% among the most active buyers. Combined with worsening macroeconomic indicators, such as rising CPI inflation and WIBOR 6M rates, this has encouraged buyers to close transactions more quickly,\u201d explained Pawe\u0142 Jarz\u0105bek, Market Research and Analysis Manager at Otodom.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Price_divergence\"><\/span>Price divergence<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>A comparison of both markets reveals clear differences in price dynamics. According to Otodom, average prices of new developer units increased by 1.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q1. On an annual basis, prices rose by 6.4% \u2013 nearly twice the current inflation rate. Tricity led the growth, with primary market prices jumping by as much as 18% year-on-year.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, prices on the secondary market remained stable throughout the quarter, with an average annual increase of around 2% \u2013 below inflation. This translates into real price stabilization, or even a slight correction. Exceptions include Tricity (+5.2% year-on-year) and Pozna\u0144 (+4.9%), while Wroc\u0142aw recorded only a marginal increase (+0.3%), and \u0141\u00f3d\u017a and Katowice saw near-zero growth.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_about_Q2\"><\/span>What about Q2?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Despite geopolitical turbulence, the outlook for the coming months remains positive. The upward trend is expected to continue in Q2 2026. As Waldemar Rogowski emphasizes, key factors supporting borrowing capacity \u2013 favorable cost of money (stable interest rates) and real income growth \u2013 should continue to sustain high buyer activity.<\/p>\n<p>Mortgage availability remains strong, which is likely to support optimistic sentiment among both buyers and sellers in both the primary and secondary housing markets.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Strong demand growth, a record surge in mortgage interest, and a clear contrast between shrinking developer supply and a gradually recovering secondary market \u2013 this is how the beginning of the year can be summarized. According to Otodom experts, recent months have been marked by a market that is \u201crevived, but not yet overheated,\u201d with [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2411,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[8],"tags":[3183,2783,2678,3602,75,70,73,3603,4493,64,74,72,3449,82,3264,71],"class_list":["post-4944","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-real-estate","tag-bik","tag-contrast","tag-kantar","tag-katarzyna-kuniewicz","tag-katowice","tag-krakow","tag-lodz","tag-otodom","tag-pawel-jarzabek","tag-poland","tag-poznan","tag-tricity","tag-waldemar-rogowski","tag-warsaw","tag-wibor","tag-wroclaw"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4944","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4944"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4944\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2411"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4944"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4944"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4944"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}