{"id":5557,"date":"2026-06-01T19:49:41","date_gmt":"2026-06-01T19:49:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/?p=5557"},"modified":"2026-06-01T19:49:41","modified_gmt":"2026-06-01T19:49:41","slug":"warsaw-in-april-2026-a-resilient-economy-with-a-softer-labour-market-and-weaker-construction-cycle-38556","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/warsaw-in-april-2026-a-resilient-economy-with-a-softer-labour-market-and-weaker-construction-cycle-38556\/","title":{"rendered":"Warsaw in April 2026: a resilient economy with a softer labour market and weaker construction cycle"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Warsaw entered the second quarter of 2026 with a mixed economic picture.<\/strong> The city remained one of Poland\u2019s strongest business centres, with rising wages, a growing number of registered companies and higher retail and wholesale sales than a year earlier. At the same time, the labour market showed signs of cooling: average employment in the enterprise sector declined year on year, registered unemployment increased, and the number of people per job offer rose.<\/p>\n<p>The data from the Statistical Office in Warsaw suggest that the capital is not facing a broad economic downturn, but rather a more uneven phase of the cycle. Consumption and business activity remain relatively solid, industry is still expanding, while construction and parts of the housing market are clearly weaker than in 2025.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_84 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/warsaw-in-april-2026-a-resilient-economy-with-a-softer-labour-market-and-weaker-construction-cycle-38556\/#Labour_market_employment_falls_while_unemployment_rises\" >Labour market: employment falls while unemployment rises<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/warsaw-in-april-2026-a-resilient-economy-with-a-softer-labour-market-and-weaker-construction-cycle-38556\/#Wages_still_rising_but_April_brought_a_monthly_correction\" >Wages: still rising, but April brought a monthly correction<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/warsaw-in-april-2026-a-resilient-economy-with-a-softer-labour-market-and-weaker-construction-cycle-38556\/#Construction_the_weakest_part_of_the_picture\" >Construction: the weakest part of the picture<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/warsaw-in-april-2026-a-resilient-economy-with-a-softer-labour-market-and-weaker-construction-cycle-38556\/#Retail_and_wholesale_trade_consumption_remains_supportive\" >Retail and wholesale trade: consumption remains supportive<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/warsaw-in-april-2026-a-resilient-economy-with-a-softer-labour-market-and-weaker-construction-cycle-38556\/#Industry_modest_April_growth_stronger_year-to-date_performance\" >Industry: modest April growth, stronger year-to-date performance<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/warsaw-in-april-2026-a-resilient-economy-with-a-softer-labour-market-and-weaker-construction-cycle-38556\/#Housing_market_more_completions_in_April_but_fewer_since_January\" >Housing market: more completions in April, but fewer since January<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-7\" href=\"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/warsaw-in-april-2026-a-resilient-economy-with-a-softer-labour-market-and-weaker-construction-cycle-38556\/#Business_activity_Warsaw_keeps_attracting_companies\" >Business activity: Warsaw keeps attracting companies<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-8\" href=\"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/warsaw-in-april-2026-a-resilient-economy-with-a-softer-labour-market-and-weaker-construction-cycle-38556\/#Comparative_perspective_Warsaw_remains_strong_but_not_immune\" >Comparative perspective: Warsaw remains strong, but not immune<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Labour_market_employment_falls_while_unemployment_rises\"><\/span>Labour market: employment falls while unemployment rises<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Average employment in Warsaw\u2019s enterprise sector stood at <strong>1.1101 million people<\/strong> in April 2026. This was <strong>0.06% lower than in March<\/strong> and <strong>0.5% lower than in April 2025<\/strong>. In absolute terms, employment was down by around <strong>5,100 jobs year on year<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>The decline was not evenly distributed across sectors. Compared with April 2025, employment fell most visibly in accommodation and food services, real estate services, transport and storage, administrative and support activities, and trade. At the same time, employment increased in construction and professional, scientific and technical activities, while information and communication and industry recorded slight gains.<\/p>\n<p>This indicates that Warsaw\u2019s labour market is still relatively strong, but the balance of demand is changing. Sectors linked to business services and higher-value activities remain more resilient, while trade, hospitality and support services are under more pressure.<\/p>\n<p>Registered unemployment also increased. At the end of April 2026, Warsaw had <strong>22,304 registered unemployed people<\/strong>, up <strong>4.8% month on month<\/strong> and <strong>10.6% year on year<\/strong>. The registered unemployment rate remained low by national standards, at <strong>1.6%<\/strong>, but it was slightly higher than a year earlier, when it stood at 1.5%.<\/p>\n<p>The number of job offers submitted to labour offices reached <strong>1,476<\/strong> in April. At the end of the month, there were <strong>19 registered unemployed people per one job offer<\/strong>, compared with 17 a month earlier. This is still better than the Mazowieckie regional average of 27 people per offer, but the change confirms that the market has become less favourable for jobseekers.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Wages_still_rising_but_April_brought_a_monthly_correction\"><\/span>Wages: still rising, but April brought a monthly correction<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Average gross monthly wages in Warsaw\u2019s enterprise sector reached <strong>PLN 11,786.67<\/strong> in April 2026. This was <strong>6.0% higher than a year earlier<\/strong>, but <strong>5.0% lower than in March<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>The monthly decline likely reflects the fading of March bonus effects in some sectors. Wage decreases compared with March were recorded in real estate services, professional, scientific and technical activities, accommodation and food services, information and communication, industry, trade, and administrative support services. By contrast, wages increased strongly in construction and moderately in transport and storage.<\/p>\n<p>The wage hierarchy remains clear. In April 2026, wages in <strong>information and communication<\/strong> were <strong>41.9% above<\/strong> the city\u2019s enterprise-sector average. Professional, scientific and technical activities were almost <strong>30% above average<\/strong>, while construction was <strong>18.5% above average<\/strong>. At the other end of the scale, accommodation and food services were <strong>34.7% below average<\/strong>, and administrative and support services were <strong>32.5% below average<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>This reinforces Warsaw\u2019s dual labour-market structure. The city continues to reward knowledge-intensive and technology-oriented work, but lower-paid service sectors remain far below the capital\u2019s average wage level.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Construction_the_weakest_part_of_the_picture\"><\/span>Construction: the weakest part of the picture<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Construction was one of the clearest weak spots in April. Sold production of construction amounted to <strong>PLN 5.512 billion<\/strong> at current prices, down <strong>4.1% from March<\/strong> and <strong>16.2% year on year<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>In January\u2013April 2026, sold construction production reached <strong>PLN 20.816 billion<\/strong>, which was <strong>11.1% lower<\/strong> than in the same period of 2025. Construction and assembly production also declined year on year. In April it stood at <strong>PLN 1.339 billion<\/strong>, down <strong>7.0% from April 2025<\/strong>, despite a <strong>7.4% monthly increase<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>The data suggest that the construction sector is experiencing a demand and investment slowdown rather than a complete collapse. Building construction itself increased slightly year on year, but specialist construction works and civil engineering recorded declines. Labour productivity in construction also weakened, falling <strong>17.7% year on year<\/strong> in April.<\/p>\n<p>For Warsaw, this matters beyond the construction sector itself. Weaker construction activity can affect housing supply, infrastructure delivery, subcontractors, materials suppliers and parts of the local labour market.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Retail_and_wholesale_trade_consumption_remains_supportive\"><\/span>Retail and wholesale trade: consumption remains supportive<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Retail sales in Warsaw were <strong>2.9% higher year on year<\/strong> in April 2026, although they fell <strong>0.4% compared with March<\/strong>. For the first four months of the year, retail sales were <strong>5.0% higher<\/strong> than in the same period of 2025.<\/p>\n<p>The annual increase was driven mainly by fuel sales, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics and orthopaedic equipment, as well as some non-specialised retail categories. At the same time, sales fell year on year in food, beverages and tobacco, motor vehicles, clothing and footwear, furniture, electronics and household appliances.<\/p>\n<p>This structure suggests that nominal retail growth is not uniformly strong. Part of the increase may be linked to prices or specific categories, while discretionary consumer spending appears more selective.<\/p>\n<p>Wholesale trade looked stronger on an annual basis. Wholesale sales in trade enterprises were <strong>10.3% higher year on year<\/strong>, while wholesale enterprises recorded a <strong>17.2% annual increase<\/strong>. However, both categories fell sharply compared with March, which points to monthly volatility rather than a simple upward trend.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Industry_modest_April_growth_stronger_year-to-date_performance\"><\/span>Industry: modest April growth, stronger year-to-date performance<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Industrial sold production in Warsaw reached <strong>PLN 15.504 billion<\/strong> in April 2026 at current prices. In constant prices, it was <strong>1.7% higher than in April 2025<\/strong>. Manufacturing output rose by <strong>1.2% year on year<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>The year-to-date picture was stronger. In January\u2013April 2026, sold industrial production amounted to <strong>PLN 64.489 billion<\/strong>, up <strong>6.3% year on year<\/strong> in constant prices. Manufacturing increased by <strong>6.7%<\/strong> over the same period.<\/p>\n<p>The strongest growth was recorded in several manufacturing branches, including textiles, beverages, furniture, computers and electronic products, machinery and equipment, metals, food products and pharmaceuticals. Declines were seen in wood products, coke and refined petroleum products, electrical equipment, clothing, non-metallic mineral products and paper products.<\/p>\n<p>This shows that Warsaw\u2019s industrial base, although less dominant than services in the city\u2019s economic structure, remains an important source of growth. However, the April reading was weaker than the cumulative January\u2013April result, suggesting some moderation after a stronger start to the year.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Housing_market_more_completions_in_April_but_fewer_since_January\"><\/span>Housing market: more completions in April, but fewer since January<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Warsaw recorded <strong>1,175 dwellings completed<\/strong> in April 2026, <strong>7.2% more<\/strong> than a year earlier. At first glance, this looks positive. However, the cumulative data tell a different story.<\/p>\n<p>In January\u2013April 2026, <strong>3,795 dwellings<\/strong> were completed in Warsaw, which was <strong>28.5% fewer<\/strong> than in the same period of 2025. The decline was concentrated mainly in dwellings built for sale or rent, where completions fell by <strong>31.0%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>The number of dwellings whose construction began also fell sharply. In January\u2013April 2026, construction started on <strong>3,586 dwellings<\/strong>, down <strong>28.8% year on year<\/strong>. At the same time, permits and construction notifications were almost unchanged, at <strong>3,802 dwellings<\/strong>, or <strong>0.1% more<\/strong> than a year earlier.<\/p>\n<p>This is an important distinction. Developers and investors still have a pipeline of formally approved projects, but fewer projects are being started and fewer units are being completed. This may reflect weaker sales expectations, financing conditions, construction costs or strategic delays in launching new investments.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Business_activity_Warsaw_keeps_attracting_companies\"><\/span>Business activity: Warsaw keeps attracting companies<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>At the end of April 2026, <strong>605,987 entities<\/strong> were registered in Warsaw in the REGON register. This represented <strong>55.1%<\/strong> of all registered entities in Mazowieckie province. The number increased by <strong>1,539 month on month<\/strong> and by <strong>21,485 year on year<\/strong>, or <strong>3.7%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>The city had <strong>198,490 commercial companies<\/strong>, up <strong>4.1% year on year<\/strong>, and <strong>332,534 sole proprietors<\/strong>, up <strong>3.8% year on year<\/strong>. The largest shares of registered entities were in professional, scientific and technical activities, trade and vehicle repair, and information and communication.<\/p>\n<p>The strongest annual increases in the number of entities were recorded in administrative and support services, energy supply, health and social work, education, construction, information and communication, and accommodation and food services. Trade was one of the few sectors where the number of entities declined year on year.<\/p>\n<p>In April, <strong>3,524 new entities<\/strong> were registered, while <strong>1,921 were removed<\/strong> from the register. The net balance remained positive, although new registrations were lower than in March. This suggests that Warsaw remains a major centre of entrepreneurship, but business formation is not immune to short-term fluctuations.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Comparative_perspective_Warsaw_remains_strong_but_not_immune\"><\/span>Comparative perspective: Warsaw remains strong, but not immune<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Compared with other large Polish cities, Warsaw still stands out for the scale of its labour market and wage levels. Its enterprise-sector employment of <strong>1.110 million<\/strong> was by far the highest among the cities listed in the report. The average gross wage of <strong>PLN 11,786.67<\/strong> was also among the highest.<\/p>\n<p>At the same time, Warsaw\u2019s registered unemployment rate of <strong>1.6%<\/strong> was very low, but not unique. Some other large cities also recorded low unemployment. The difference is that Warsaw combines low unemployment with very high employment, high wages and a large business base.<\/p>\n<p>The weakness lies mostly in construction and housing starts. While the capital remains economically strong, the decline in construction activity and lower cumulative housing completions suggest a cooling investment cycle. For a city with strong demographic and business demand, this may become a supply-side problem if the trend continues.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Warsaw entered the second quarter of 2026 with a mixed economic picture. The city remained one of Poland\u2019s strongest business centres, with rising wages, a growing number of registered companies and higher retail and wholesale sales than a year earlier. At the same time, the labour market showed signs of cooling: average employment in the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2019,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[15],"tags":[2789,197,2783,37,82],"class_list":["post-5557","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-beyond","tag-construction-sector","tag-contrast","tag-machinery","tag-warsaw"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5557","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5557"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5557\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5559,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5557\/revisions\/5559"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2019"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5557"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5557"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5557"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}