{"id":5895,"date":"2026-06-28T08:38:54","date_gmt":"2026-06-28T08:38:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/?p=5895"},"modified":"2026-06-28T08:39:03","modified_gmt":"2026-06-28T08:39:03","slug":"polands-software-industry-enters-a-more-selective-growth-phase-80978","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/polands-software-industry-enters-a-more-selective-growth-phase-80978\/","title":{"rendered":"Poland\u2019s Software Industry Enters a More Selective Growth Phase"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Poland\u2019s software-services industry is still benefiting from strong export demand and rising technology spending, but growth is no longer lifting every provider equally. Artificial intelligence, currency volatility and tougher procurement standards are increasing pressure on companies that sell developer hours, while rewarding firms that combine technical delivery with sector expertise, recurring services and accountability for measurable business outcomes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Polish<\/figure>\n\n\n\n\n
\nSector analysis \u00b7 IT<\/span>\n

Polish Software Houses Between Export Growth and Margin Pressure. AI and Exchange Rates Are Reshaping the Services Model<\/h2>\n

Poland\u2019s IT services sector remains one of the economy\u2019s stronger export segments. However, robust growth in the value of services does not automatically translate into better results for every software provider. In 2026, the industry is being shaped simultaneously by three forces: a shift in demand driven by artificial intelligence, exchange-rate volatility, and rising client expectations for measurable business outcomes rather than simply the number of hours worked.<\/p>\n

Krak\u00f3w, 28 June 2026<\/p>\n

\n
\n+12%<\/span>\nestimated growth in foreign revenue from IT services in 2025<\/span>\nNBP \/ Rzeczpospolita calculations<\/span>\n<\/div>\n
\nUSD 58.3bn<\/span>\nestimated value of Poland\u2019s business-services exports in 2025<\/span>\nNBP \/ PKO BP \/ Rzeczpospolita<\/span>\n<\/div>\n
\nPLN 3.7599<\/span>\nUSD\/PLN exchange rate in the NBP table of 26 June 2026<\/span>\nNBP<\/span>\n<\/div>\n
\n8,7%<\/span>\nof businesses in Poland using AI technologies in 2025<\/span>\nGUS<\/span>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Analytical thesis: the sector is growing, but outcomes will become increasingly uneven<\/h2>\n

The key conclusion from macroeconomic data and market observations is not that Polish software companies are becoming less relevant. It is that the sector is becoming increasingly polarised. Providers in the stronger position are those that combine technical capability with industry knowledge, operate critical systems, deliver integrations, or take responsibility for production-environment maintenance. Under pressure, meanwhile, are businesses that rely mainly on supplying specialists and billing for their time.<\/p>\n

Two levels of analysis should be kept distinct. NBP data cover the broad category of IT and business services, including shared-service centres, data analytics and other professional services. Their growth rate therefore cannot be mechanically applied to the performance of an individual software house. For any particular company, the currency mix of contracts, client concentration, billing model, share of maintenance services and ability to retain part of automation\u2019s benefits in its margin may matter more than market growth itself.<\/p>\n

\n

Growth in IT-services exports remains a positive signal for the sector. It does not, however, determine who captures the value created by AI: the client, infrastructure provider, software producer, or the services company delivering the implementation.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

IT services exports: a solid foundation, but uneven exposure<\/h2>\n

Poland maintains a surplus in trade in services, and services exports are becoming an increasingly important component of the balance of payments. In December 2025, receipts from exports of all services reached PLN 44.3bn, up 5.2% year on year. Estimates based on NBP data indicate that foreign revenue from IT services rose by around 12% in full-year 2025, faster than the broad business-services category.<\/p>\n

The scale of exports gives Polish companies a clear advantage: access to larger budgets, work for clients in more digitally mature markets, and the ability to build specialisation in sectors such as finance, industry, energy, e-commerce, medtech and cybersecurity. At the same time, foreign exposure brings greater competition and stronger procurement pressure. Global clients increasingly compare Polish suppliers not only with companies in Central Europe but also with teams in Latin America, Asia and Southern Europe.<\/p>\n

For exporters, the contract structure is also important. An agreement billed in US dollars may improve revenue diversification, but the exchange rate affects the value of sales once converted into zloty. On 26 June 2026, the USD\/PLN rate was PLN 3.7599 and EUR\/PLN stood at PLN 4.2869. The exchange-rate level alone does not determine a company\u2019s financial result. Key factors include contract duration, natural cost hedges, the share of foreign-currency expenses and the use of hedging instruments.<\/p>\n

Exchange rates: a performance factor, not a standalone forecast of financial health<\/h2>\n

For companies invoicing in dollars, a stronger zloty may reduce revenue reported in Polish currency even when contract rates and work volumes remain stable. The effect is particularly visible in models where the vast majority of costs\u2014salaries, office expenses and some outsourced services\u2014are incurred in zloty while revenue remains in foreign currencies.<\/p>\n

This does not mean that exporters are automatically in a weaker position than domestic firms. International contracts can offer larger budgets, greater continuity of work and access to more complex projects. Currency risk should be assessed alongside gross margin, order-book duration and client structure. A highly specialised company that bills some work by outcome or through managed services may be less exposed to exchange-rate movements than a business dependent on individual staff-augmentation contracts.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Business model<\/th>\nImpact of a weaker USD\/PLN<\/th>\nMitigating factor<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
USD-billed staff augmentation<\/td>\ndirect decline in revenue value after conversion into zloty<\/td>\nshorter contracts, rate indexation, hedging<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Fixed-price project for an overseas client<\/td>\npressure on profitability, especially in lengthy delivery<\/td>\nproject-cost control, phased delivery, currency clauses<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Maintenance and managed services<\/td>\nexchange-rate effects remain, but generally with more predictable volume<\/td>\nrecurring revenue, long-term client relationships<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Company operating mainly in Poland<\/td>\nlimited direct currency exposure<\/td>\nregulatory demand, local relationships, knowledge of client processes<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

AI is changing project economics, not eliminating the need to build software<\/h2>\n

Artificial intelligence is neither solely a threat to the industry nor solely a new source of demand. Its direct impact lies in changing how software is built. Tools that support developers can shorten the delivery time for simpler tasks and accelerate the preparation of documentation, tests, prototypes and code migrations. This puts pressure on a model in which the client pays only for the number of billable hours.<\/p>\n

Automation does not, however, remove the most difficult elements of a project: business-process analysis, architecture design, integration with client systems, security, data management, quality assurance and responsibility for how the solution performs after deployment. In these areas, AI can raise team productivity, but it does not replace the provider\u2019s accountability for the outcome.<\/p>\n

The key question for software houses is therefore not whether AI will reduce the number of programming hours. More important is whether the company captures part of the economic benefit of shorter project delivery. In an hourly model, a substantial share of that benefit may remain with the client. In fixed-price, subscription, managed-services or outcome-based models, the provider has greater scope to protect margin\u2014provided it can price delivery risk correctly.<\/p>\n

From selling skills to selling accountability for outcomes<\/h3>\n

The most resilient service models combine development capabilities with responsibility for a measurable element of the client\u2019s operations. This may mean maintaining an e-commerce system, managing a customer-service process, automating document workflows, integrating data, deploying an AI environment or ensuring technology compliance in a regulated industry.<\/p>\n

In this arrangement, the client is not merely buying access to a developer. The client is buying the capacity to launch, maintain and develop a specific business function. It is a more difficult model to build because it requires domain knowledge, mature project management and stronger contractual accountability. It can, however, provide greater revenue stability than a conventional time-and-materials model.<\/p>\n

Domestic market: substantial implementation potential, but price remains highly important<\/h2>\n

Domestic demand for technology services remains an important counterweight to uncertainty in overseas markets. According to Statistics Poland, 8.7% of enterprises in Poland used AI technologies in 2025. This represents a clear increase from 5.9% a year earlier, but still means that the overwhelming majority of companies do not use such tools.<\/p>\n

For software providers, this is both an opportunity and a warning. Low adoption may indicate substantial implementation potential, but it also reflects client-side barriers: a lack of quality data, skills shortages, limited budgets and uncertainty about return on investment. Domestic companies often expect not only a technology deployment but also help in organising processes, integrating systems and training employees.<\/p>\n

Demand is also supported by regulatory and modernisation processes: the digitisation of invoice workflows, security requirements, cloud adoption, reporting and the need to connect fragmented systems. It should not, however, be assumed that every regulatory obligation automatically creates a high-margin market for software houses. Some work goes to large integrators, off-the-shelf software producers or ERP suppliers, while price competition remains intense in many projects.<\/p>\n

Margins: scale helps, but does not replace specialisation<\/h2>\n

Caution is required when analysing sector profitability. A frequently cited report by SoDA and the Kronenberg Foundation at Citi Handlowy placed software-house margins in a 5\u201320% range and indicated relatively higher profitability among companies with annual revenue above PLN 5m. The study dates from 2019, however, and should not be treated as a current average for the entire industry.<\/p>\n

It remains useful as a description of the economic mechanism. Scale can improve team utilisation, diversify the client portfolio and reduce the relative cost of sales and management. It does not, however, guarantee profitability. A large company with high employee turnover, too large a share of fixed-price projects or concentration on one customer may be more exposed than a smaller specialised provider with recurring revenue.<\/p>\n

Over the coming quarters, the main determinants of margin will be the pace of salary increases, team utilisation, the ability to update billing rates, the share of recurring revenue, currency exposure and the real productivity achieved through AI tools. The last factor is especially important: a lower cost of completing a task will improve performance only if the company retains the value in the contract price or increases project volume without a proportional rise in costs.<\/p>\n

IT spending is rising, but its composition does not always favour software services<\/h2>\n

Global forecasts remain broadly positive. Gartner estimates that worldwide IT spending will rise by 13.5% in 2026 to USD 6.31tn. Software spending is expected to grow by 15.1%, while data-centre systems remain the fastest-growing segment. IDC forecasts that ICT spending by enterprises and small businesses will increase by around 10%.<\/p>\n

For Polish software houses, however, it is not only the size of the IT spending \u201cpie\u201d that matters, but how it is divided. Some of the growth may go to providers of infrastructure, cloud services, data centres, AI models and hardware. The remainder may generate demand for integrations, application modernisation, cybersecurity, data management and business implementations. These are the areas where service companies have the greatest opportunity to participate in AI-related spending.<\/p>\n

\n
Forecast IT spending growth in 2026<\/figcaption>\n
\n
\n
Gartner \u2014 total IT spending<\/div>\n
\n
13,5%<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
Gartner \u2014 software<\/div>\n
\n
15,1%<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
IDC \u2014 enterprise and SMB ICT<\/div>\n
\n
10,0%<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
Sources: Gartner, IDC. The forecasts use different market definitions and are not fully comparable. The chart shows the direction and scale of expected growth, not a direct revenue forecast for services companies.<\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n

Areas of potential competitive advantage<\/h2>\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Segment<\/th>\nImpact of AI<\/th>\nMain risk<\/th>\nSource of advantage<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Staff augmentation<\/td>\npressure on the number of billable hours for simpler tasks<\/td>\nservice commoditisation and price competition<\/td>\ndeep technical or industry specialisation<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Custom software<\/td>\nshorter prototyping cycles and selected delivery tasks<\/td>\nunderpricing of fixed-price projects<\/td>\narchitecture, business analysis, delivery quality<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Managed services<\/td>\nautomation of monitoring, support and part of maintenance<\/td>\nclient pressure to reduce subscription fees<\/td>\nrecurring revenue and operational accountability<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AI and data integrations<\/td>\ngrowing demand for deployments, governance and integrations<\/td>\nrisk of rapid technology obsolescence<\/td>\nsecurity, data quality, knowledge of client processes<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Proprietary SaaS products<\/td>\nscope to expand functionality with automation and AI<\/td>\nhigh customer-acquisition costs and pressure from global platforms<\/td>\nrecurring subscription model and strong product stickiness<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Regulated industries<\/td>\nAI expands opportunities for process automation and data analysis<\/td>\nlengthy procurement processes, compliance requirements<\/td>\ndomain expertise, security and client trust<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

Three scenario frameworks for the sector<\/h2>\n

Base case: market growth with moderate margin pressure<\/h3>\n

In this scenario, IT-services exports continue to grow, but the pace of growth does not translate evenly into the performance of all companies. AI tools improve productivity, but clients capture part of the benefit through lower budgets or broader expectations for project scope. Providers with recurring revenue, high team utilisation and specialisation in specific industries perform best.<\/p>\n

Upside case: AI becomes a source of new implementation projects<\/h3>\n

The more favourable scenario assumes that clients move rapidly from pilots to production deployments. Demand rises in data integration, customer-service automation, analytics, cybersecurity and application modernisation. Companies able to offer not only team access but also accountability for architecture and delivery outcomes can improve their revenue mix and increase the share of higher-value projects.<\/p>\n

Risk case: IT spending growth is concentrated outside services<\/h3>\n

In the risk scenario, technology spending rises mainly in infrastructure, cloud services, data centres and ready-made AI platforms, while budgets for services projects are constrained. At the same time, pressure on rates, currency risk and lower team utilisation weaken the profitability of providers built around selling labour hours. Such a scenario could accelerate market consolidation, although it would not mean the disappearance of demand for IT services as a whole.<\/p>\n

What to watch in the coming quarters<\/h2>\n
\n

Indicators to monitor<\/p>\n

    \n
  • the pace of IT-services exports and growth in total services exports;<\/li>\n
  • USD\/PLN and EUR\/PLN rates, especially for companies with substantial foreign exposure;<\/li>\n
  • team utilisation, order book and share of recurring contracts;<\/li>\n
  • the share of projects billed fixed-price, by subscription or by business outcome;<\/li>\n
  • the pace at which companies move from AI testing to production deployments;<\/li>\n
  • M&A transactions in the sector and the availability of funding for smaller businesses;<\/li>\n
  • the pace of wage growth and companies\u2019 ability to maintain their billing rates.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n

    Conclusions<\/h2>\n

    Polish software houses are entering a phase in which market growth alone will not be sufficient to improve profitability. The industry still benefits from Poland\u2019s strong position in IT-services exports, a broad pool of technical capabilities and growing demand for business digitisation. At the same time, the mechanism of value creation is changing: less depends on the number of available developers, and more on the ability to solve a client\u2019s specific business problem.<\/p>\n

    AI may shorten the delivery time of some tasks, but it simultaneously increases the importance of architecture, data, security and systems integration. For services companies, it therefore does not necessarily mean lower demand. It may, however, force a change in pricing and a move away from a model in which the labour hour is the only product. The sector remains promising, but increasingly selective\u2014both in terms of business models and specialisation.<\/p>\n

    Sources and methodology<\/h2>\n

    This article was prepared using National Bank of Poland data on the balance of payments and exchange rates, Statistics Poland data on AI use in businesses, Gartner and IDC forecasts, and materials from PMR, PKO BP, SoDA, the Kronenberg Foundation at Citi Handlowy and Baker Tilly TPA. Data on business-services and IT-services exports cover broad statistical categories and should therefore not be equated directly with the revenue of all software houses.<\/p>\n

    Methodological note:<\/strong> forecasts from research institutions differ in geographic scope, market definition and estimation methodology. Margin data for software houses come from a report published in 2019 and are used solely as a historical reference point for the structure of the sector, not as a current market average.<\/p>\n

    This material is informational and analytical in nature. It does not constitute an investment recommendation, investment, legal or tax advice, or an invitation to enter into transactions involving financial instruments. The conclusions concern sector trends and do not replace an analysis of the circumstances of a particular company.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n