{"id":6082,"date":"2026-07-01T08:10:43","date_gmt":"2026-07-01T08:10:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/?p=6082"},"modified":"2026-07-01T08:10:43","modified_gmt":"2026-07-01T08:10:43","slug":"apartment-sales-to-slow-developers-see-risk-of-slowdown-for-the-first-time-since-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/apartment-sales-to-slow-developers-see-risk-of-slowdown-for-the-first-time-since-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Apartment Sales to Slow? Developers See Risk of Slowdown for the First Time Since 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The June Developer Sentiment Index published by the housing portal Tabelaofert sends the strongest signal of caution in the primary housing market in months. The Sales Pace Change Index fell to -0.09, dropping below zero for the first time since November 2024.<\/p>\n<p>Developers are becoming less likely to expect further sales growth and more likely to anticipate a decline. At the same time, optimism about price increases has fallen sharply \u2014 although price stability remains the dominant scenario for now.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cSentiment among developers is deteriorating quickly. Expectations that sales will continue to grow have disappeared. That is the key difference. For several months, the industry had hoped that interest-rate cuts would stimulate demand and improve buyers\u2019 creditworthiness. Today, it is clear that without such an impulse, the market has stalled. Buyers have not disappeared, but they are no longer in a hurry. They have choice \u2014 and plenty of it \u2014 because supply is growing. They compare offers, review financing options and negotiate. Developers can see this, and the number of pessimists is rising,\u201d says Robert Chojnacki, founder and vice-president of Tabelaofert.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/apartment-sales-to-slow-developers-see-risk-of-slowdown-for-the-first-time-since-2024\/#Fewer_Optimists_More_Caution\" >Fewer Optimists, More Caution<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/apartment-sales-to-slow-developers-see-risk-of-slowdown-for-the-first-time-since-2024\/#Sales_Are_Weakening_but_Prices_Have_Not_Cracked_%E2%80%94_Yet\" >Sales Are Weakening, but Prices Have Not Cracked \u2014 Yet<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/apartment-sales-to-slow-developers-see-risk-of-slowdown-for-the-first-time-since-2024\/#Two_Indices_Two_Sharp_Declines\" >Two Indices, Two Sharp Declines<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/apartment-sales-to-slow-developers-see-risk-of-slowdown-for-the-first-time-since-2024\/#Without_a_Credit_Impulse_a_Recovery_Will_Be_Difficult\" >Without a Credit Impulse, a Recovery Will Be Difficult<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Fewer_Optimists_More_Caution\"><\/span>Fewer Optimists, More Caution<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>The biggest shift is not that developers are now widely predicting falling sales. The key issue is how rapidly the group of companies expecting further acceleration in the market has shrunk.<\/p>\n<p>As recently as February, nearly 58% of surveyed developers expected sales to increase. By June, that share had fallen to around 18%.<\/p>\n<p>At the same time, the number of companies expecting weaker results is rising. At the beginning of the year, only a few percent of respondents expected sales to deteriorate. In May, the figure rose to 17.2%, and in June it approached 27%.<\/p>\n<p>The market has therefore moved away from expectations of improvement and towards the more difficult task of defending the current sales pace. This is not because demand has disappeared, but mainly because it is now spread across a growing number of sales offices and projects. Stability remains the most common response, but it is increasingly clear that developers are preparing for a more challenging holiday season.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cThis is a moment of sobering up after a highly optimistic start to the year. In February, most developers expected sales to keep growing; today, only one in five companies still points to that scenario. It does not mean that buyers have left the market. It means that the market is beginning to ruthlessly verify the quality of each offer. Good projects will defend their sales performance, while weaker ones will have to compete much more aggressively on price,\u201d adds Robert Chojnacki.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Sales_Are_Weakening_but_Prices_Have_Not_Cracked_%E2%80%94_Yet\"><\/span>Sales Are Weakening, but Prices Have Not Cracked \u2014 Yet<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>The decline in sentiment is also visible in price expectations. The Apartment Price Change Index stood at 0.03 in June. This was significantly lower than in May, when it was 0.14, and well below its annual peak of 0.22 recorded in March.<\/p>\n<p>This suggests that developers have almost stopped expecting price growth, although they are not yet forecasting broad declines.<\/p>\n<p>However, this is not a sign that the market is moving towards widespread price cuts. In June, 84.0% of surveyed companies expected to maintain their current price lists. Price increases were expected by 9.3% of developers, while 6.3% anticipated price reductions.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cWeaker sales do not automatically mean cheaper apartments. Developers can see that the market is becoming more difficult, but most still want to defend their price lists. The price lists, though not necessarily the final transaction prices. This does not mean that buyers have no room for negotiation. Sales pressure is likely to show up not through straightforward cuts in catalogue prices, but through discounts, promotions, parking spaces, payment schedules or individual negotiations,\u201d comments Katarzyna Tworska, managing director of Rednet24, a company specialising in apartment sales for developers.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Two_Indices_Two_Sharp_Declines\"><\/span>Two Indices, Two Sharp Declines<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>This creates an important contrast with sales sentiment. The Sales Pace Change Index has fallen below zero, while the Apartment Price Change Index, despite a record decline, has remained slightly positive.<\/p>\n<p>Developers see that sales may become more difficult, and they are increasingly open to the possibility of price reductions.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cDemand is weakening, and so are expectations of price growth. But the market is not homogeneous, and the situation will increasingly depend on the specific city, project and structure of the offer. In some developments, pressure for discounts may rise, while in others developers will continue to defend their listed prices,\u201d says Ewa Palus, chief analyst at Tabelaofert.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Without_a_Credit_Impulse_a_Recovery_Will_Be_Difficult\"><\/span>Without a Credit Impulse, a Recovery Will Be Difficult<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>One reason for weaker sentiment is the lack of a clear financing-related stimulus. At the beginning of the year, the market expected further interest-rate cuts that could improve buyers\u2019 borrowing capacity. That scenario is now less certain, meaning that some buyers may postpone their purchasing decisions for longer.<\/p>\n<p>Another factor is persistently high supply. At the current pace, by the summer of next year every second apartment in developers\u2019 offer could be a completed unit ready for handover.<\/p>\n<p>Seasonality is also affecting developers\u2019 caution. July and August are typically weaker months for apartment sales. With such a wide range of available properties, buyers know that they do not need to make an immediate decision, which may further lengthen the sales process.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cWith supply at such high levels, the housing market now needs a genuine stimulus that translates into buyers\u2019 borrowing capacity. Without cheaper financing, sales will become more demanding and customer decision-making will take longer. This means that the coming months will not be a period of easy demand, but a test for developers: those with well-matched offers will defend their sales, while those relying solely on improving sentiment will face a more difficult environment,\u201d concludes Robert Chojnacki, founder and vice-president of Tabelaofert.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The June Developer Sentiment Index published by the housing portal Tabelaofert sends the strongest signal of caution in the primary housing market in months. The Sales Pace Change Index fell to -0.09, dropping below zero for the first time since November 2024. Developers are becoming less likely to expect further sales growth and more likely [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2411,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"Apartment developers in Poland are becoming more cautious.\r\n\r\nFor the first time since November 2024, Tabelaofert\u2019s Sales Pace Change Index has fallen below zero, signalling that more developers are preparing for slower sales rather than further market acceleration.\r\n\r\nBuyers are still active \u2014 but they have more choice, more time to compare projects and stronger room to negotiate. With supply remaining high, developers may increasingly compete through discounts, promotions, parking spaces or flexible payment schedules rather than visible cuts to catalogue prices.\r\n\r\nPrice expectations are also weakening. Most developers still expect prices to remain stable, but optimism about further increases has dropped sharply.\r\n\r\nThe coming months may become a real test for the residential market: strong projects with the right location, pricing and offer may defend sales, while weaker developments could face growing pressure.\r\n\r\n#Poland #RealEstate #HousingMarket #PropertyMarket #Developers #Apartments #Economy #WarsawRealEstate","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[8],"tags":[3344,2783,4710,4711,4712,2692],"class_list":["post-6082","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-real-estate","tag-catalogue","tag-contrast","tag-ewa-palus","tag-katarzyna-tworska","tag-robert-chojnacki","tag-sharp"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6082","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6082"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6082\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6083,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6082\/revisions\/6083"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2411"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6082"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6082"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6082"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}