At its July meeting, the Monetary Policy Council left interest rates unchanged. The reference rate of the National Bank of Poland has remained at 3.75 percent since March 2026, and the decision was in line with market expectations, coming as no surprise to investors.<\/p>\n
The latest inflation data, however, were of much greater significance. Both the May and June consumer inflation readings positively surprised the market. In June, inflation stood at 2.5 percent year on year, reaching the NBP\u2019s inflation target and coming in below market forecasts of 2.7 percent. In May, the CPI stood at 3.1 percent, while the consensus had pointed to 3.7 percent.<\/p>\n
It was precisely these better-than-expected inflation figures that led to a revision of expectations regarding the future path of interest rates. Currently, both economists and representatives of the Monetary Policy Council, including the NBP governor, indicate that the most likely scenario is for interest rates to remain at their current level in the coming quarters. This means that the market expects monetary policy to stabilise, which supports greater predictability of investment conditions.<\/p>\n
However, one factor that could change this scenario in the near term is the geopolitical situation. A further escalation of the Iran\u2013US conflict is increasing uncertainty in financial markets, primarily through the risk of further rises in energy prices. If tensions persist, they could once again trigger inflationary pressure and influence expectations regarding the future path of interest rates.<\/p>\n
Disclaimer:<\/strong> The information contained in this publication is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or any other form of advice, is general in nature and is not addressed to any specific recipient. Before using this information for any purpose, independent advice should be sought.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" At its July meeting, the Monetary Policy Council left interest rates unchanged. The reference rate of the National Bank of Poland has remained at 3.75 percent since March 2026, and the decision was in line with market expectations, coming as no surprise to investors. The latest inflation data, however, were of much greater significance. Both […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4010,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"\ud83c\uddf5\ud83c\uddf1 **Polish interest rates unchanged. A longer period of stability may be ahead**\r\n\r\nAt its July meeting, the Monetary Policy Council left interest rates unchanged. The National Bank of Poland\u2019s reference rate has remained at **3.75 percent** since March 2026, and the decision was fully in line with market expectations.\r\n\r\nThe latest inflation figures were more important. Both the May and June CPI readings positively surprised economists. In June, inflation stood at **2.5 percent year on year**, reaching the NBP\u2019s inflation target and coming in below market forecasts. In May, CPI was **3.1 percent**, while the consensus had expected **3.7 percent**.\r\n\r\nBetter-than-expected inflation data have changed expectations for the future path of interest rates. The most likely scenario now appears to be stabilisation, with rates remaining at their current level in the coming quarters. For investors and businesses, this means greater predictability in financing conditions.\r\n\r\nHowever, geopolitics remains a key risk. A further escalation of the Iran\u2013US conflict could increase uncertainty in financial markets, mainly through the risk of higher energy prices. This could once again fuel inflationary pressure and influence expectations regarding monetary policy.\r\n\r\n\u2139\ufe0f This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or an investment recommendation.","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[3263,64,2726],"class_list":["post-6201","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-news","tag-nbp","tag-poland","tag-target"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6201","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6201"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6201\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4010"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6201"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6201"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6201"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}