{"id":6223,"date":"2026-07-09T16:45:51","date_gmt":"2026-07-09T16:45:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/?p=6223"},"modified":"2026-07-09T16:45:57","modified_gmt":"2026-07-09T16:45:57","slug":"glapinski-turns-dovish-despite-higher-inflation-projection-zloty-weakest-since-late-2024-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/glapinski-turns-dovish-despite-higher-inflation-projection-zloty-weakest-since-late-2024-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Glapi\u0144ski turns dovish despite higher inflation projection: zloty weakest since late 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Today\u2019s comments from NBP President Adam Glapi\u0144ski were quite dovish. Despite the NBP revising its inflation projection upward and oil prices rising this week, the bar for monetary policy easing appears to be lower than the market had expected. A return to interest-rate cuts later this year cannot be ruled out, perhaps as soon as after the summer, provided that the external environment does not get in the way \u2014 in particular, further escalation in the Middle East. In response, the zloty weakened visibly: against the euro, it reached its lowest level since late 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"ceo-nbp7\">\n<style>\n.ceo-nbp7{--ceo-navy:#131F49;--ceo-amber:#e67a2d;--ceo-bg:#f7f8fb;--ceo-line:#e2e4ea;--ceo-pos:#1f7a3d;--ceo-neg:#c0392b;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;color:#1a1a1a;font-size:16.5px;line-height:1.65;max-width:900px;margin:0 auto;}\n.ceo-nbp7 .ceo-kicker{display:inline-block;background:var(--ceo-amber);color:#fff;font-size:12.5px;font-weight:700;letter-spacing:.08em;text-transform:uppercase;padding:6px 14px;border-radius:3px;margin-bottom:14px;}\n.ceo-nbp7 .ceo-h2{font-family:Georgia,serif;font-size:30px;line-height:1.25;color:var(--ceo-navy);margin:0 0 10px;font-weight:700;}\n.ceo-nbp7 .ceo-dateline{font-size:13.5px;color:#7a8194;margin:0 0 22px;font-weight:600;letter-spacing:.02em;text-transform:uppercase;}\n.ceo-nbp7 .ceo-lead{font-family:Georgia,serif;font-size:19px;line-height:1.55;color:#2a2a2a;border-left:4px solid 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16px;}\n.ceo-nbp7 .ceo-chart-box{background:#fff;border:1px solid var(--ceo-line);border-radius:4px;padding:18px 18px 12px;margin:14px 0 26px;}\n.ceo-nbp7 .ceo-chart-title{font-size:15.5px;font-weight:700;margin:0 0 12px;color:var(--ceo-navy);}\n.ceo-nbp7 .ceo-chart-wrap{position:relative;width:100%;height:340px;}\n.ceo-nbp7 .ceo-callout{background:var(--ceo-navy);border-left:5px solid var(--ceo-amber);border-radius:4px;padding:22px 26px;margin:30px 0;}\n.ceo-nbp7 .ceo-callout p{margin:0;color:#ffffff !important;font-size:17px;line-height:1.6;}\n.ceo-nbp7 .ceo-callout p strong{color:var(--ceo-amber) !important;}\n.ceo-nbp7 .ceo-takeaways{background:#fdf1e7;border-left:4px solid var(--ceo-amber);border-radius:4px;padding:22px 26px;margin:30px 0;}\n.ceo-nbp7 .ceo-takeaways-title{font-size:13px;font-weight:700;letter-spacing:.1em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#b9591a;margin:0 0 12px;}\n.ceo-nbp7 .ceo-takeaways ul{margin:0;padding-left:0;list-style:none;}\n.ceo-nbp7 .ceo-takeaways li{position:relative;padding:8px 0 8px 24px;border-bottom:1px solid #f0d8c2;font-size:15px;line-height:1.55;}\n.ceo-nbp7 .ceo-takeaways li:last-child{border-bottom:none;}\n.ceo-nbp7 .ceo-takeaways li:before{content:\"\";position:absolute;left:0;top:15px;width:9px;height:9px;background:var(--ceo-amber);border-radius:1px;}\n.ceo-nbp7 .ceo-method{font-size:13.5px;color:#5a5a5a;line-height:1.6;background:var(--ceo-bg);border-radius:4px;padding:16px 20px;margin:26px 0;}\n.ceo-nbp7 .ceo-method strong{color:var(--ceo-navy);}\n.ceo-nbp7 .ceo-foot{font-size:13px;color:#7a8194;margin-top:22px;font-style:italic;}\n@media(max-width:820px){.ceo-nbp7 .ceo-kpi-grid{grid-template-columns:repeat(2,1fr);}}\n@media(max-width:600px){\n.ceo-nbp7{font-size:15.5px;}\n.ceo-nbp7 .ceo-h2{font-size:23px;}\n.ceo-nbp7 .ceo-kpi-grid{grid-template-columns:1fr;}\n.ceo-nbp7 .ceo-kpi-value{font-size:22px;}\n.ceo-nbp7 .ceo-chart-wrap{height:300px;}\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class=\"ceo-kpi-grid\">\n  <div class=\"ceo-kpi-card\">\n    <div class=\"ceo-kpi-label\">NBP reference rate<\/div>\n    <div class=\"ceo-kpi-value\">3.75<span class=\"ceo-kpi-unit\">%<\/span><\/div>\n    <div class=\"ceo-kpi-delta\">unchanged, decision of 8 July<\/div>\n  <\/div>\n  <div class=\"ceo-kpi-card\">\n    <div class=\"ceo-kpi-label\">Inflation projection for 2026<\/div>\n    <div class=\"ceo-kpi-value\">2.4-3.3<span class=\"ceo-kpi-unit\">%<\/span><\/div>\n    <div class=\"ceo-kpi-delta ceo-up\">raised from 1.6-2.9%<\/div>\n  <\/div>\n  <div class=\"ceo-kpi-card\">\n    <div class=\"ceo-kpi-label\">EUR\/PLN<\/div>\n    <div class=\"ceo-kpi-value\">~4.32<span class=\"ceo-kpi-unit\"><\/span><\/div>\n    <div class=\"ceo-kpi-delta ceo-down\">weakest PLN since late 2024<\/div>\n  <\/div>\n  <div class=\"ceo-kpi-card\">\n    <div class=\"ceo-kpi-label\">Brent crude<\/div>\n    <div class=\"ceo-kpi-value\">&gt;80<span class=\"ceo-kpi-unit\"> USD\/bbl<\/span><\/div>\n    <div class=\"ceo-kpi-delta\">increase this week<\/div>\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<h3 class=\"ceo-h3\">No surprise in the decision, but a surprise in the tone<\/h3>\n<p>The Monetary Policy Council kept interest rates unchanged on 8 July \u2014 the reference rate remained at 3.75%, the deposit rate at 3.25% and the lombard rate at 4.25%. This was in line with the near-unanimous expectations of analysts. The tone of Thursday\u2019s press conference by President Glapi\u0144ski, however, came as a surprise. The market had expected a more cautious, even hawkish message \u2014 after all, on the same day the NBP published a projection assuming higher inflation, while oil prices were rising in response to the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Instead, the NBP president did not rule out a return to rate cuts later this year, while making it conditional on the stabilisation of the external environment.<\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"ceo-h3\">NBP projection: inflation higher, GDP slightly lower<\/h3>\n<p>The July projection by the NBP\u2019s Economic Analysis and Research Department \u2014 based on data available up to 17 June and assuming unchanged interest rates \u2014 raised the CPI inflation range for 2026 to 2.4-3.3%, from 1.6-2.9% in the March projection. At the same time, the GDP growth path for 2026 was slightly lowered \u2014 to 3.0-4.4%, from 3.1-4.7% in March. The NBP indicated that although domestic CPI inflation fell in June to 2.5% year on year, from 3.1% in May, and returned to the target, the external environment \u2014 especially the conflict in the Middle East \u2014 remains the main source of uncertainty for the future price path.<\/p>\n\n<div class=\"ceo-chart-box\">\n  <div class=\"ceo-chart-title\">Chart 1. NBP projection for 2026: ranges with 50% probability, March vs July<\/div>\n  <div class=\"ceo-chart-wrap\"><canvas id=\"nbp7-chart-projekcja\"><\/canvas><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<h3 class=\"ceo-h3\">Oil and the Middle East: a risk that could disrupt the plans<\/h3>\n<p>Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalated again in early July \u2014 after Iranian forces attacked commercial vessels, the United States responded with a series of strikes on targets in Iran. The oil market reacted with a jump in prices: Brent, which at the beginning of July was still trading around pre-war levels, broke back above USD 80 per barrel within a few days. This factor \u2014 rather than domestic data \u2014 has been the main test in recent weeks for the credibility of the MPC\u2019s dovish rhetoric. President Glapi\u0144ski admitted, however, that a hard stance against rate cuts is not a foregone conclusion, provided the geopolitical situation does not deteriorate.<\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"ceo-h3\">NBP rate path: from 5.75% to 3.75% in 14 months<\/h3>\n<p>The current level of interest rates is the result of an easing cycle that began in May 2025 with an immediate 50-basis-point cut and continued at almost every subsequent meeting \u2014 a total of six cuts in 2025 amounting to 175 basis points, followed by one more 25-basis-point cut in March 2026. Since then, the MPC has kept rates unchanged for five consecutive meetings. The next meeting, on 25 August, will be non-decision-making because of the summer break \u2014 the first real opportunity for a possible move will therefore come only in September.<\/p>\n\n<div class=\"ceo-chart-box\">\n  <div class=\"ceo-chart-title\">Chart 2. NBP reference rate, January 2025 &#8211; July 2026<\/div>\n  <div class=\"ceo-chart-wrap\"><canvas id=\"nbp7-chart-stopy\"><\/canvas><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<h3 class=\"ceo-h3\">Zloty under pressure from dovish remarks<\/h3>\n<p>Against this backdrop, it is no surprise that the zloty came under pressure. After President Glapi\u0144ski\u2019s remarks, the currency reached its weakest level against the euro since late 2024, with EUR\/PLN at around 4.32. A dovish tone from the central bank, while it simultaneously raises its inflation projection, sends investors a signal that the real premium on Polish assets may shrink faster than assumed as recently as the beginning of the week \u2014 and that directly undermines the attractiveness of the zloty compared with regional currencies.<\/p>\n\n<div class=\"ceo-callout\">\n  <p>The combination of a <strong>higher inflation projection<\/strong> and the NBP president\u2019s <strong>dovish tone<\/strong> is unusual \u2014 the market was prepared for caution, but instead received a signal of openness to further cuts. It was this contrast, rather than the decision to leave rates unchanged itself, that surprised investors most and weakened the zloty.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"ceo-takeaways\">\n  <div class=\"ceo-takeaways-title\">What this means for business<\/div>\n  <ul>\n    <li>The scenario of rate cuts after the summer is back on the table \u2014 companies should recalculate the cost of floating-rate financing in their fourth-quarter budgets.<\/li>\n    <li>The weakening of the zloty to levels not seen since late 2024 increases the cost of imports and components settled in euros or dollars \u2014 an important factor for companies with import-intensive supply chains.<\/li>\n    <li>The higher inflation projection for 2026, at 2.4-3.3% versus 1.6-2.9%, means cost pressure may persist longer than assumed in the spring.<\/li>\n    <li>The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains a key risk factor \u2014 further escalation could quickly test the MPC\u2019s dovish stance, regardless of domestic data.<\/li>\n    <li>The next real opportunity for a rate change will come only in September \u2014 the August MPC meeting will be purely review-based.<\/li>\n  <\/ul>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"ceo-method\">\n  <strong>Context and sources:<\/strong> The MPC decision of 8 July 2026 and the NBP\u2019s July inflation and GDP projection, prepared by the Economic Analysis and Research Department on the basis of data available up to 17 June 2026. EUR\/PLN and Brent crude oil data based on current market quotations. Information on the escalation in the Strait of Hormuz based on agency reports from 7-9 July 2026.\n<\/div>\n\n<p class=\"ceo-foot\">Own analysis based on NBP\/MPC announcements and market data.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<script class=\"nowprocket\" data-cfasync=\"false\" data-no-minify=\"1\" src=\"https:\/\/cdnjs.cloudflare.com\/ajax\/libs\/Chart.js\/4.4.1\/chart.umd.min.js\"><\/script>\n<script class=\"nowprocket\" data-cfasync=\"false\" data-no-minify=\"1\">\n(function(){\n  var nbp7Attempts = 0;\n  var nbp7MaxAttempts = 100;\n  var nbp7Poll = setInterval(function(){\n    nbp7Attempts++;\n    if (typeof Chart !== 'undefined') {\n      clearInterval(nbp7Poll);\n      nbp7InitCharts();\n    } else if (nbp7Attempts >= nbp7MaxAttempts) {\n      clearInterval(nbp7Poll);\n    }\n  }, 100);\n\n  function nbp7InitCharts(){\n    var navy = '#131F49';\n    var amber = '#e67a2d';\n    var gridColor = 'rgba(19,31,73,0.08)';\n\n    try {\n      var c1 = document.getElementById('nbp7-chart-projekcja');\n      if (c1) {\n        new Chart(c1.getContext('2d'), {\n          type: 'bar',\n          data: {\n            labels: ['Inflation 2026 (March)', 'Inflation 2026 (July)', 'GDP 2026 (March)', 'GDP 2026 (July)'],\n            datasets: [{\n              label: 'Projection range with 50% probability',\n              data: [[1.6,2.9],[2.4,3.3],[3.1,4.7],[3.0,4.4]],\n              backgroundColor: [amber, navy, '#c7cee0', navy],\n              borderRadius: 4\n            }]\n          },\n          options: {\n            indexAxis: 'y',\n            responsive: true, maintainAspectRatio: false,\n            plugins: {\n              legend: { display: false },\n              tooltip: { callbacks: { label: function(ctx){ var v = ctx.raw; return v[0].toLocaleString('en-US',{minimumFractionDigits:1}) + '% - ' + v[1].toLocaleString('en-US',{minimumFractionDigits:1}) + '%'; } } }\n            },\n            scales: {\n              x: { min:0, max:5, ticks: { color: '#1a1a1a', font: { size: 11.5 }, callback: function(v){ return v+'%'; } }, grid: { color: gridColor } },\n              y: { ticks: { color: '#1a1a1a', font: { size: 11.5 } }, grid: { display: false } }\n            }\n          }\n        });\n      }\n    } catch (e) { console.error('nbp7 chart-projection error', e); }\n\n    try {\n      var c2 = document.getElementById('nbp7-chart-stopy');\n      if (c2) {\n        new Chart(c2.getContext('2d'), {\n          type: 'line',\n          data: {\n            labels: ['Jan 25','May 25','Jul 25','Sep 25','Oct 25','Nov 25','Dec 25','Mar 26','Jul 26'],\n            datasets: [{\n              label: 'NBP reference rate',\n              data: [5.75,5.25,5.00,4.75,4.50,4.25,4.00,3.75,3.75],\n              borderColor: navy,\n              backgroundColor: navy,\n              borderWidth: 3,\n              stepped: true,\n              pointRadius: 4,\n              fill: false\n            }]\n          },\n          options: {\n            responsive: true, maintainAspectRatio: false,\n            plugins: {\n              legend: { display: false },\n              tooltip: { callbacks: { label: function(ctx){ return ctx.parsed.y.toLocaleString('en-US',{minimumFractionDigits:2}) + '%'; } } }\n            },\n            scales: {\n              x: { ticks: { color: '#1a1a1a', font: { size: 11.5 } }, grid: { display: false } },\n              y: { min:3.5, max:6, ticks: { color: '#1a1a1a', font: { size: 11.5 }, callback: function(v){ return v+'%'; } }, grid: { color: gridColor } }\n            }\n          }\n        });\n      }\n    } catch (e) { console.error('nbp7 chart-rates error', e); }\n  }\n})();\n<\/script>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Today\u2019s comments from NBP President Adam Glapi\u0144ski were quite dovish. Despite the NBP revising its inflation projection upward and oil prices rising this week, the bar for monetary policy easing appears to be lower than the market had expected. A return to interest-rate cuts later this year cannot be ruled out, perhaps as soon as [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3998,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"The NBP left interest rates unchanged, but Adam Glapi\u0144ski\u2019s tone was more dovish than markets expected.\n\nDespite a higher inflation projection and rising oil prices, the central bank did not close the door to further rate cuts later this year. The reaction was immediate: the zloty weakened against the euro to its lowest level since late 2024.","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[15],"tags":[3404,2783,2909,3263,2726,2701],"class_list":["post-6223","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-adam-glapinski","tag-contrast","tag-iran","tag-nbp","tag-target","tag-usd"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6223","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6223"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6223\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3998"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6223"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6223"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6223"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}