{"id":6340,"date":"2026-07-17T10:53:21","date_gmt":"2026-07-17T10:53:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/?p=6340"},"modified":"2026-07-17T10:53:29","modified_gmt":"2026-07-17T10:53:29","slug":"heatwaves-could-cost-europe-up-to-7-of-gdp-by-2030-2030","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/heatwaves-could-cost-europe-up-to-7-of-gdp-by-2030-2030\/","title":{"rendered":"Heatwaves Could Cost Europe Up to 7% of GDP by 2030"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Heatwaves are turning into a structural economic cost for Europe, and the damage runs deeper than lost workdays. New research from Allianz Trade&#8217;s Economic Research division finds that once temperatures cross a threshold of roughly 30\u00b0C, every additional degree drives increasingly steep productivity losses and higher energy use \u2014 and the biggest long-term casualty isn&#8217;t consumption, but corporate investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"ep26-wrap\">\n<style>\n.ep26-wrap{max-width:900px;margin:0 auto;font-family:-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,\"Segoe UI\",Roboto,Arial,sans-serif;color:#1a1a1a;line-height:1.7;}\n.ep26-wrap h2,.ep26-wrap h3{font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',serif;color:#161616;}\n.ep26-wrap h2{font-size:1.55em;margin:2em 0 0.6em;border-left:6px solid #dd1313;padding-left:14px;}\n.ep26-wrap h3{font-size:1.2em;margin:1.6em 0 0.5em;}\n.ep26-dateline{display:inline-block;background:#161616;color:#fff!important;font-size:0.85em;padding:6px 14px;border-radius:20px;margin-bottom:1.4em;}\n.ep26-lead{font-size:1.15em;color:#161616;font-weight:600;margin-bottom:1.2em;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',serif;}\n.ep26-tldr{background:#f7f2f2;border:1px solid #eccccb;border-left:6px solid #dd1313;border-radius:8px;padding:18px 22px;margin:1.4em 0;}\n.ep26-tldr p{margin:0 0 12px;}\n.ep26-tldr p:last-child{margin-bottom:0;}\n.ep26-tldr strong{color:#161616;}\n.ep26-callout{background:#161616;border-radius:10px;padding:20px 24px;margin:1.6em 0;}\n.ep26-callout p, .ep26-callout li, .ep26-callout strong, .ep26-callout h3{color:#fff!important;}\n.ep26-callout h3{margin-top:0;color:#ff8f8c!important;}\n.ep26-stat-grid{display:flex;flex-wrap:wrap;gap:16px;margin:1.4em 0;}\n.ep26-stat{flex:1 1 140px;background:#f7f2f2;border:1px solid #eccccb;border-radius:10px;padding:16px;text-align:center;}\n.ep26-stat .ep26-num{font-size:1.8em;font-weight:800;color:#dd1313;display:block;}\n.ep26-stat .ep26-lab{font-size:0.85em;color:#161616;}\n.ep26-chart-box{background:#fff;border:1px solid #e2e2e2;border-radius:10px;padding:18px;margin:1.6em 0;}\n.ep26-chart-box canvas{max-height:360px;}\n.ep26-table{width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;margin:1.2em 0;font-size:0.95em;}\n.ep26-table th{background:#161616;color:#fff!important;padding:10px;text-align:left;}\n.ep26-table td{padding:9px 10px;border-bottom:1px solid #e2e2e2;}\n.ep26-table tr:nth-child(even) td{background:#f7f7f7;}\n.ep26-source{font-size:0.85em;color:#666;margin-top:0.6em;}\n.ep26-figure-note{background:#f7f2f2;border-radius:8px;padding:16px 20px;margin:1.4em 0;font-size:0.95em;color:#333;}\n<\/style>\n\n<div class=\"ep26-tldr\">\n<p><strong>At what temperature does the economic impact of heat start rising sharply?<\/strong> Allianz Trade&#8217;s Economic Research division points to a clear threshold around 30\u00b0C. Below that level, the impact of temperature on the economy is limited; above it, each additional degree brings increasingly larger productivity losses and higher energy consumption.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What is the biggest long-term cost of heatwaves?<\/strong> In the scenarios modeled by Allianz Trade, losses from investment forgone due to heat are typically larger than the drop in consumption. In the most exposed economies, investment could run as much as double digits lower than the baseline scenario, limiting the economy&#8217;s future capacity to grow.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Why do heatwaves hurt corporate profitability?<\/strong> As the analysis shows, productivity deteriorates almost immediately, while wages adjust with a lag. That means the cost of heat hits corporate margins directly, first.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Heatwaves are becoming an increasingly measurable business cost.<\/strong> Beyond the productivity hit, they also mean higher energy bills, greater risk of logistics disruptions, and the need for additional investment.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/heatwaves-could-cost-europe-up-to-7-of-gdp-by-2030-2030\/#Why_are_heatwaves_becoming_an_economic_problem\" >Why are heatwaves becoming an economic problem?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/heatwaves-could-cost-europe-up-to-7-of-gdp-by-2030-2030\/#Which_industries_are_most_exposed\" >Which industries are most exposed?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/heatwaves-could-cost-europe-up-to-7-of-gdp-by-2030-2030\/#What_is_changing_in_the_economy\" >What is changing in the economy?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/heatwaves-could-cost-europe-up-to-7-of-gdp-by-2030-2030\/#Is_Europe_prepared_for_extreme_heat\" >Is Europe prepared for extreme heat?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/heatwaves-could-cost-europe-up-to-7-of-gdp-by-2030-2030\/#What_can_businesses_do\" >What can businesses do?<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/heatwaves-could-cost-europe-up-to-7-of-gdp-by-2030-2030\/#In_depth_what_the_underlying_research_shows\" >In depth: what the underlying research shows<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-7\" href=\"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/heatwaves-could-cost-europe-up-to-7-of-gdp-by-2030-2030\/#Fiscal_consequences_hit_the_least_resilient_economies_hardest\" >Fiscal consequences hit the least resilient economies hardest<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-8\" href=\"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/heatwaves-could-cost-europe-up-to-7-of-gdp-by-2030-2030\/#The_insurance_gap\" >The insurance gap<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-9\" href=\"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/heatwaves-could-cost-europe-up-to-7-of-gdp-by-2030-2030\/#Policy_still_focuses_on_compensating_losses_not_preventing_them\" >Policy still focuses on compensating losses, not preventing them<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-10\" href=\"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/heatwaves-could-cost-europe-up-to-7-of-gdp-by-2030-2030\/#The_missing_piece_households\" >The missing piece: households<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Why_are_heatwaves_becoming_an_economic_problem\"><\/span>Why are heatwaves becoming an economic problem?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n<p>The largest economic impact of high temperatures comes from falling labor productivity and rising energy consumption. Allianz Trade notes that heat is becoming an increasingly measurable business cost. Once the roughly 30\u00b0C threshold is crossed, each additional degree can lower labor productivity by around 3% of average hourly value added, while simultaneously increasing energy consumption by around 1.2% \u2014 raising operating costs at exactly the moment operational efficiency declines.<\/p>\n\n<p>In practice, this also creates pressure on profitability. Productivity falls immediately, while wages adjust to the new conditions with a lag. In the short term, the effects of heat therefore weigh mainly on corporate margins, only later feeding through to household income and consumption.<\/p>\n\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Which_industries_are_most_exposed\"><\/span>Which industries are most exposed?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n<p>The effects of extreme temperatures are felt most strongly in sectors dependent on physical labor, logistics, and weather conditions \u2014 chiefly construction, transport, logistics, manufacturing, and agriculture. In these industries, high temperatures more frequently lead to falling output, delayed order fulfillment, and rising operating costs.<\/p>\n\n<p>Energy-intensive businesses face a double challenge. Allianz Trade estimates that once the critical temperature threshold is crossed, energy consumption can rise by an average of around 1.2% for every additional degree, pushing up the costs of production, cooling, and storage.<\/p>\n\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_is_changing_in_the_economy\"><\/span>What is changing in the economy?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n<p>The report&#8217;s most striking conclusion is that heatwaves hit investment harder than consumption. In the scenarios analyzed, corporate investment falls by a multiple of the drop in consumer spending. In France, the cumulative decline in investment could reach 14.7%; in Italy, 12.8%; and in Portugal, 6%. In other words, the largest cost of heatwaves is not the immediate loss of output, but the constraint placed on the economy&#8217;s future growth capacity.<\/p>\n\n<p>According to Allianz Trade, the most exposed economies could lose between 5% and 7% of GDP relative to the baseline scenario over 2026\u20132030. In monetary terms, that would correspond to roughly USD 240 billion for France, USD 147 billion for Italy, and USD 131 billion for Germany.<\/p>\n\n<div class=\"ep26-stat-grid\">\n<div class=\"ep26-stat\"><span class=\"ep26-num\">~30\u00b0C<\/span><span class=\"ep26-lab\">threshold above which heat damage accelerates sharply<\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"ep26-stat\"><span class=\"ep26-num\">5\u20137%<\/span><span class=\"ep26-lab\">potential GDP loss 2026\u20132030 for the most exposed economies<\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"ep26-stat\"><span class=\"ep26-num\">14.7%<\/span><span class=\"ep26-lab\">projected cumulative investment decline in France<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"ep26-chart-box\">\n<canvas id=\"ep26Chart1\"><\/canvas>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"ep26-source\">Source: Allianz Trade, Economic Research. Cumulative GDP loss, 2026\u20132030, most exposed economies vs. baseline scenario.<\/p>\n\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Is_Europe_prepared_for_extreme_heat\"><\/span>Is Europe prepared for extreme heat?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n<p>Not really. Allianz Trade points out that one reason for Europe&#8217;s high vulnerability to heat is its comparatively underdeveloped cooling infrastructure. Air conditioning covers around 19% of buildings in Europe on average, compared with roughly 90% in the United States.<\/p>\n\n<p>That means part of today&#8217;s economic losses stems not just from rising temperatures themselves, but from infrastructure that has not adequately adapted to the new climate conditions.<\/p>\n\n<div class=\"ep26-stat-grid\">\n<div class=\"ep26-stat\"><span class=\"ep26-num\">19%<\/span><span class=\"ep26-lab\">of European buildings have air conditioning<\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"ep26-stat\"><span class=\"ep26-num\">~90%<\/span><span class=\"ep26-lab\">of buildings in the United States have air conditioning<\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"ep26-stat\"><span class=\"ep26-num\">7x<\/span><span class=\"ep26-lab\">increase in heat-stress episodes since the 1980s<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_can_businesses_do\"><\/span>What can businesses do?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n<p>Not every effect of heat can be eliminated, but many can be reduced. Investments that improve building energy efficiency, cooling systems, and solutions that limit overheating in plants and offices are becoming increasingly important. At the same time, companies should adapt work schedules to periods of peak heat, but also \u2014 something usually overlooked in heat-related analysis \u2014 <strong>assess the resilience of their suppliers and factor weather risk into business continuity plans<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n<p>According to estimates from Allianz Trade&#8217;s research division, investment in climate resilience is increasingly becoming an investment in competitiveness. It limits productivity losses, helps protect margins, and reduces the risk of costly business disruptions.<\/p>\n\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"In_depth_what_the_underlying_research_shows\"><\/span>In depth: what the underlying research shows<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n<div class=\"ep26-figure-note\">\n<strong>Chart referenced in the original report:<\/strong> Impact of the strongest heatwaves recorded since 2014 on labor productivity relative to the 1991\u20132010 average \u2014 (a) change in output value per hour worked (USD), (b) change in hourly wages (%), plotted against Tx5d (the average maximum temperature over the five consecutive hottest days of the year). Source: Allianz Trade, Economic Research.\n<\/div>\n\n<p>Extreme heat is becoming a structural economic threat to which Europe is particularly exposed. The number of heat-stress episodes has risen sevenfold since the 1980s, and the average death toll per episode has risen fivefold. Part of this result reflects measurement: civil registration and excess-mortality monitoring are far more developed in Europe than in most of Africa and South Asia, where heat-related deaths largely go unrecorded. But genuine structural vulnerability also plays a role \u2014 aging populations, dense urban development designed to retain heat, and severely underdeveloped cooling infrastructure, with air-conditioning penetration averaging 19% across Europe, compared with roughly 90% in the United States.<\/p>\n\n<p>The economic effects of heat stress are non-linear, with a critical threshold of around 30\u00b0C \u2014 above that level, productivity losses intensify sharply. Below that threshold, warming actually lowers heating costs and is associated with a small productivity gain. Above it, the relationship reverses, and both effects worsen with every additional degree. The dominant channel runs through labor: hourly output falls by roughly USD 1.3 (at constant purchasing power parity, around 3% of average hourly output in the 2014\u20132024 sample) for every degree in the 30\u201335\u00b0C range. Wage adjustment lags productivity considerably, so in the short term costs fall disproportionately on corporate profitability before gradually passing through to household income and consumption. A second, smaller channel runs through the energy sector: energy consumption rises by around 1.2% per degree, raising companies&#8217; input costs exactly at the temperatures where labor productivity falls.<\/p>\n\n<p>To estimate the macroeconomic consequences, Allianz Trade built a stress scenario in which each country&#8217;s five hottest years recorded between 2014 and 2024 are replayed in ascending order across 2026\u20132030 \u2014 the fifth-hottest year in 2026, the fourth-hottest in 2027, and so on, up to each country&#8217;s hottest year on record in 2030. Under this trajectory, cumulative implied GDP losses (2026\u20132030) could reach 5\u20137% for the most exposed economies: USD 240 billion for France, USD 354 billion for Japan, USD 147 billion for Italy, USD 131 billion for Germany, and USD 120 billion for Spain. What matters more for long-term growth is that, in this scenario, the decline in fixed-capital spending systematically exceeds the loss in consumption, averaging around 8% in the affected countries: because heat lowers expected returns on capital, investment falls, which reduces future productive capacity in a self-reinforcing brake on economic growth. A shift toward stagflation dynamics can also be expected \u2014 rising prices alongside rising unemployment \u2014 putting monetary authorities in a difficult position, particularly in the eurozone, where a single interest rate must serve economies with very different climate exposures.<\/p>\n\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Fiscal_consequences_hit_the_least_resilient_economies_hardest\"><\/span>Fiscal consequences hit the least resilient economies hardest<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n<p>Lost economic output caused by heat reduces tax revenue: estimated annual losses would amount to 1.8% in France, 1.3% in Italy and Spain, and 0.7% in Germany \u2014 partly because progressive tax systems mean revenue typically falls faster than output itself, amplifying the fiscal drag beyond the headline GDP loss. At the same time, inflation-indexed transfers, healthcare costs, and emergency infrastructure repairs push public spending up. Budget balances worsen by an average of around 0.5% of GDP per year. Italy and Spain, once heat-related pressures are factored in, risk (re-)breaching the Maastricht deficit ceiling. France, which already has a projected deficit of \u22124.9% of GDP, faces an additional 2.2 percentage points of pressure from heatwaves.<\/p>\n\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_insurance_gap\"><\/span>The insurance gap<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n<p>Insured losses from heatwaves cover only a small fraction of total damage, revealing a structural mismatch between what heat destroys and what traditional property insurance was designed to cover. In 2022, total climate-related losses in Europe reached EUR 46 billion, while the share of losses covered by insurance rose only marginally. Most heat-related damage comes from excess mortality, lost working hours, strain on the healthcare system, and infrastructure stress \u2014 factors that insurance contracts are not built to capture. This makes extreme heat harder to insure than other climate hazards, since losses are diffuse and often indirect \u2014 such as productivity declines or health effects \u2014 making them difficult to measure and price. Closing the protection gap is therefore a challenge both for product design and underwriting capacity, and the insurance toolkit is already evolving in response: parametric instruments that pay out once objective temperature or duration thresholds are met, public-private risk-sharing arrangements for systemic exposures, and dedicated public backstops where private insurance capacity cannot provide adequate cover.<\/p>\n\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Policy_still_focuses_on_compensating_losses_not_preventing_them\"><\/span>Policy still focuses on compensating losses, not preventing them<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n<p>Europe&#8217;s policy response to heat impacts relies mainly on compensating losses rather than preventing them. Following the IPCC&#8217;s (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a UN body established in 1988) multi-pronged approach, closing this gap in Europe requires coordinated action on four fronts: labor market regulation, construction, public finance, and households.<\/p>\n\n<p>An effective worker-protection system requires binding temperature thresholds, automatic work restrictions once those thresholds are breached, compensation for lost hours, and coverage extending to fixed-term, seasonal, and platform workers. No major European economy has all four elements in place, and the gap is concentrated in the last one: protections were designed around standard employment contracts and largely overlook the workers most exposed to heat. Preventive measures themselves also remain underused \u2014 shifted working hours, partial mechanization, and indoor cooling are still rare.<\/p>\n\n<p>For buildings, four elements need to work together: overheating standards for new construction, mandatory passive cooling during renovations, access to cooling for vulnerable households as a social entitlement, and grid-adequacy planning that accounts for simultaneous summer cooling demand alongside heat-related derating of generators. The revised EU Energy Performance of Buildings Directive delivers the first of these; the gap lies in the remaining three, which are what actually limit indoor temperatures, mortality, and peak electricity demand.<\/p>\n\n<p>On fiscal architecture, every major European economy has a national adaptation strategy, but almost none has translated it into a multi-year budget line, so the response defaults to ad hoc emergency packages \u2014 and each such episode quietly consumes fiscal space that ex-ante adaptation would otherwise have used to limit the next one.<\/p>\n\n<div class=\"ep26-callout\">\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_missing_piece_households\"><\/span>The missing piece: households<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>EU households hold nearly EUR 40 trillion in financial assets, including very large deposit holdings, while a significant share of Europe&#8217;s housing stock remains poorly adapted to warmer years. Mobilizing even a small, well-targeted share of these funds \u2014 through incentives for retrofitting, passive cooling, and affordable climate-risk-reduction solutions \u2014 could help close part of the gap that public funds alone cannot cover. This is not, however, a case for private financing alone: the households most exposed to climate change are typically not the ones with the largest liquid savings, which is why public guarantees, subsidies, and safeguards should be the mechanism that turns household wealth into greater heat resilience \u2014 rather than deepening inequality.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<script src=\"https:\/\/cdnjs.cloudflare.com\/ajax\/libs\/Chart.js\/4.4.1\/chart.umd.min.js\" nowprocket data-cfasync=\"false\"><\/script>\n<script nowprocket data-cfasync=\"false\">\n(function(){\n  var ep26Attempts = 0;\n  var ep26Interval = setInterval(function(){\n    ep26Attempts++;\n    if (typeof Chart !== 'undefined') {\n      clearInterval(ep26Interval);\n      ep26InitCharts();\n    } else if (ep26Attempts > 100) {\n      clearInterval(ep26Interval);\n    }\n  }, 100);\n\n  function ep26InitCharts(){\n    var red = '#dd1313';\n    var dark = '#161616';\n\n    try {\n      var c1 = document.getElementById('ep26Chart1');\n      if (c1) {\n        new Chart(c1, {\n          type: 'bar',\n          data: {\n            labels: ['France', 'Japan', 'Italy', 'Germany', 'Spain'],\n            datasets: [{ label: 'Estimated cumulative GDP loss, 2026\\u20132030 (USD bn)', data: [240, 354, 147, 131, 120], backgroundColor: red }]\n          },\n          options: {\n            responsive: true,\n            plugins: { title: { display: true, text: 'Estimated cumulative GDP loss under heat stress scenario, 2026\\u20132030' }, legend: { display: false } },\n            scales: { y: { beginAtZero: true, ticks: { callback: function(v){ return '$' + v + 'bn'; } } } }\n          }\n        });\n      }\n    } catch(e) { console.error('ep26 chart1 error', e); }\n  }\n})();\n<\/script>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Heatwaves are turning into a structural economic cost for Europe, and the damage runs deeper than lost workdays. New research from Allianz Trade&#8217;s Economic Research division finds that once temperatures cross a threshold of roughly 30\u00b0C, every additional degree drives increasingly steep productivity losses and higher energy use \u2014 and the biggest long-term casualty isn&#8217;t [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6341,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"Heatwaves are no longer only a public health or environmental issue. They are becoming a structural cost for European businesses and economies.\n\nNew research from Allianz Trade shows that once temperatures exceed around 30\u00b0C, every additional degree brings sharper productivity losses, higher energy consumption and growing pressure on corporate margins.\n\nThe biggest long-term impact may not be lower consumption, but falling investment. Under the heat-stress scenario analysed, the most exposed economies could lose between 5% and 7% of GDP by 2030. France alone could face cumulative losses of around USD 240 billion.\n\nConstruction, transport, logistics, manufacturing and agriculture are among the sectors most exposed. Europe\u2019s limited cooling infrastructure further increases the risk.\n\nRead more about how extreme heat is reshaping business costs, investment decisions and Europe\u2019s economic outlook.\n\n#Heatwaves #EuropeanEconomy #Business #ClimateRisk #EconomicGrowth #Investment #Productivity #AllianzTrade\n","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[5,15,7],"tags":[2975,3848,2789,2690,284,285,286,2701],"class_list":["post-6340","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-business","category-economy","category-reports-analysis","tag-allianz","tag-allianz-trade","tag-beyond","tag-gap","tag-italy","tag-portugal","tag-spain","tag-usd"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6340","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6340"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6340\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6341"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6340"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6340"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ceo.com.pl\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6340"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}