Chinese carmakers could account for 17% of new-car registrations in Poland in 2026, according to IBRM SAMAR forecasts. The expanding market is also seeing changes in vehicle financing, with buyers increasingly comparing monthly ownership and usage costs.
Poland’s car fleet remains older than Europe’s
Poland had 21.077 million registered passenger cars at the end of 2025, up 2.5%. Their average age was 16.24 years, according to IBRM SAMAR’s adjusted vehicle registry figures, versus an EU average of 12.7 years in ACEA’s Vehicles on European Roads 2026 report.
New-car registrations reached 597,428 in 2025, while used-car imports totalled around 857,500. IBRM SAMAR forecasts 669,700 new registrations in 2026, representing approximately 12.1% annual growth.
Chinese brands gain share
Chinese brands held 8.2% of Polish new-car registrations in 2025 and 13.7% in January–September 2026. IBRM SAMAR projects a 17% share for the full year. The forecast suggests Chinese brands could account for about 66,200 of a projected 72,200 additional registrations. Their anticipated shares are particularly high among plug-in hybrids, at 61.8%, and battery-electric vehicles, at 22%.
Leasing and private demand
Leasing and fleet-management channels represented 52.8% of new-car registrations in 2025. The 2026 projection implies 318,300 registrations, but a reduced share of 47.5%. Individual customers’ registrations are projected to grow 18.7% to 220,900. Diesel’s share could decline from 33.6% in 2015 to 9.6%, while hybrids are forecast at 24.3% and plug-in hybrids plus electric vehicles at 17.2%.
Vehicle prices increase sharply
Median new-car prices for individual buyers increased from PLN 88,400 in 2020 to PLN 146,100 in January–September 2026, a rise of around 65%. For leased cars the median rose from PLN 118,300 to PLN 173,700, or approximately 47%. Monthly payments do not fully represent the cost of financing: deposits, insurance, servicing, mileage limits and end-of-contract values also matter.
Long-term rental grows
Volkswagen Financial Services reports that long-term rental’s share of its retail financing portfolio rose from 0.3% in 2022 to 25.7% in 2026. These are company-specific figures, not industry-wide averages. The firm also says its customer base grew from 170,000 in 2019 to 319,000 in 2026, while the number of returning contract-end vehicles is forecast to increase from 10,000 in 2024 to 47,000 in 2028.
Digital financing and emission zones
Volkswagen Financial Services says 57% of its leasing and rental contracts are completed remotely and 80% of financing decisions take no more than twenty minutes. Clean transport zones in Warsaw and Kraków are also affecting decisions about engine type and long-term usability of vehicles.
Sources: IBRM SAMAR, ACEA and Volkswagen Financial Services. Figures for 2026 and 2028 identified as forecasts are not final annual results. Original Polish article.
