The June Developer Sentiment Index published by the housing portal Tabelaofert sends the strongest signal of caution in the primary housing market in months. The Sales Pace Change Index fell to -0.09, dropping below zero for the first time since November 2024.
Developers are becoming less likely to expect further sales growth and more likely to anticipate a decline. At the same time, optimism about price increases has fallen sharply — although price stability remains the dominant scenario for now.
“Sentiment among developers is deteriorating quickly. Expectations that sales will continue to grow have disappeared. That is the key difference. For several months, the industry had hoped that interest-rate cuts would stimulate demand and improve buyers’ creditworthiness. Today, it is clear that without such an impulse, the market has stalled. Buyers have not disappeared, but they are no longer in a hurry. They have choice — and plenty of it — because supply is growing. They compare offers, review financing options and negotiate. Developers can see this, and the number of pessimists is rising,” says Robert Chojnacki, founder and vice-president of Tabelaofert.
Fewer Optimists, More Caution
The biggest shift is not that developers are now widely predicting falling sales. The key issue is how rapidly the group of companies expecting further acceleration in the market has shrunk.
As recently as February, nearly 58% of surveyed developers expected sales to increase. By June, that share had fallen to around 18%.
At the same time, the number of companies expecting weaker results is rising. At the beginning of the year, only a few percent of respondents expected sales to deteriorate. In May, the figure rose to 17.2%, and in June it approached 27%.
The market has therefore moved away from expectations of improvement and towards the more difficult task of defending the current sales pace. This is not because demand has disappeared, but mainly because it is now spread across a growing number of sales offices and projects. Stability remains the most common response, but it is increasingly clear that developers are preparing for a more challenging holiday season.
“This is a moment of sobering up after a highly optimistic start to the year. In February, most developers expected sales to keep growing; today, only one in five companies still points to that scenario. It does not mean that buyers have left the market. It means that the market is beginning to ruthlessly verify the quality of each offer. Good projects will defend their sales performance, while weaker ones will have to compete much more aggressively on price,” adds Robert Chojnacki.
Sales Are Weakening, but Prices Have Not Cracked — Yet
The decline in sentiment is also visible in price expectations. The Apartment Price Change Index stood at 0.03 in June. This was significantly lower than in May, when it was 0.14, and well below its annual peak of 0.22 recorded in March.
This suggests that developers have almost stopped expecting price growth, although they are not yet forecasting broad declines.
However, this is not a sign that the market is moving towards widespread price cuts. In June, 84.0% of surveyed companies expected to maintain their current price lists. Price increases were expected by 9.3% of developers, while 6.3% anticipated price reductions.
“Weaker sales do not automatically mean cheaper apartments. Developers can see that the market is becoming more difficult, but most still want to defend their price lists. The price lists, though not necessarily the final transaction prices. This does not mean that buyers have no room for negotiation. Sales pressure is likely to show up not through straightforward cuts in catalogue prices, but through discounts, promotions, parking spaces, payment schedules or individual negotiations,” comments Katarzyna Tworska, managing director of Rednet24, a company specialising in apartment sales for developers.
Two Indices, Two Sharp Declines
This creates an important contrast with sales sentiment. The Sales Pace Change Index has fallen below zero, while the Apartment Price Change Index, despite a record decline, has remained slightly positive.
Developers see that sales may become more difficult, and they are increasingly open to the possibility of price reductions.
“Demand is weakening, and so are expectations of price growth. But the market is not homogeneous, and the situation will increasingly depend on the specific city, project and structure of the offer. In some developments, pressure for discounts may rise, while in others developers will continue to defend their listed prices,” says Ewa Palus, chief analyst at Tabelaofert.
Without a Credit Impulse, a Recovery Will Be Difficult
One reason for weaker sentiment is the lack of a clear financing-related stimulus. At the beginning of the year, the market expected further interest-rate cuts that could improve buyers’ borrowing capacity. That scenario is now less certain, meaning that some buyers may postpone their purchasing decisions for longer.
Another factor is persistently high supply. At the current pace, by the summer of next year every second apartment in developers’ offer could be a completed unit ready for handover.
Seasonality is also affecting developers’ caution. July and August are typically weaker months for apartment sales. With such a wide range of available properties, buyers know that they do not need to make an immediate decision, which may further lengthen the sales process.
“With supply at such high levels, the housing market now needs a genuine stimulus that translates into buyers’ borrowing capacity. Without cheaper financing, sales will become more demanding and customer decision-making will take longer. This means that the coming months will not be a period of easy demand, but a test for developers: those with well-matched offers will defend their sales, while those relying solely on improving sentiment will face a more difficult environment,” concludes Robert Chojnacki, founder and vice-president of Tabelaofert.
