In June 2026, the regional business confidence indicator, R-BCI, improved year on year in most of the analysed sections and voivodeships — most clearly in construction, where an improvement was recorded in 14 out of 16 voivodeships, and in accommodation and food service activities, where improvement was recorded in 13 voivodeships. Despite growing optimism, employment costs remain the most frequently cited barrier to business activity across all analysed industries, while companies currently base wage decisions primarily on their own financial situation.
Business sentiment in June 2026: entrepreneurs’ confidence is improving, but employment costs continue to hold companies back
General picture: sentiment is improving, but remains uneven
Since the beginning of 2026, the R-BCI indicator in most analysed areas of the economy has been stronger than a year earlier. In June, compared with the same month of 2025, improvement was recorded most often in construction, in 14 voivodeships; accommodation and food service activities, in 13; information and communication as well as transportation and storage, in 11 each; and manufacturing and wholesale trade, in 9 each. In retail trade, improvement was recorded in half of the voivodeships. In the short term, compared with May, the largest number of positive changes was seen in information and communication as well as accommodation and food service activities.
Which industries are the most optimistic today
In June 2026, business sentiment remained optimistic primarily in accommodation and food service activities, where positive R-BCI values were recorded in 15 out of 16 voivodeships, with a record level of 38.1 in Podkarpackie. Sentiment was also strong in information and communication, with 13 voivodeships in positive territory and Podlaskie leading with a reading of 26.8, as well as in wholesale trade, with 12 voivodeships and Pomorskie leading at 9.0. The opposite situation prevails in manufacturing, where the indicator was positive in only three voivodeships — Mazowieckie, Podkarpackie and Małopolskie — and in retail trade, where it was positive in only four voivodeships.
Construction: strongest year-on-year improvement
Among all sections, construction recorded the most widespread improvement compared with June 2025. R-BCI increased in 14 voivodeships, with the strongest growth in Warmińsko-Mazurskie, up 21.6 points, Lubuskie, up 18.1 points, and Lubelskie, up 13.4 points. In June 2026 itself, the most optimistic sentiment was recorded in Podlaskie, with an R-BCI of 10.9, Pomorskie, at 5.6, and Dolnośląskie, at 5.4. Despite the improvement, construction companies continued to report declines in construction and assembly output and in the number of orders, although assessments of companies’ financial situation improved year on year in most regions.
Barriers: employment costs still in first place
Across all seven analysed sections, employment costs remain the most frequently cited barrier to business activity. Their importance varies by region. In June 2026, the highest share of firms identifying this barrier was recorded in transportation and storage in Opolskie voivodeship, at 95.4%, and in accommodation and food service activities in Wielkopolskie, at 94.3%. In many regions, however, the importance of this barrier declined year on year — for example, in construction in Podkarpackie it fell by 11.6 percentage points. The second most frequently cited barrier remains uncertainty about the general economic situation, particularly acute in wholesale trade and transportation.
Wages: what determines pay rises
In an in-depth survey, Statistics Poland asked entrepreneurs what, in their view, would have the greatest impact on employee wage levels over the next three months. Across all seven sections and in most voivodeships, the most frequently selected answer was the company’s financial situation. In manufacturing and wholesale trade, this factor was indicated in June as the most important in 100% of the surveyed voivodeships, and its importance also increased there year on year. The second most important factor remains maintaining the real value of wages, followed by maintaining competitive pay levels, which was indicated much less often than the first two factors.
| Section | Maximum share indicating “company financial situation” | Voivodeship |
|---|---|---|
| Information and communication | 100.0% | Podlaskie |
| Transportation and storage | 95.6% | Opolskie |
| Wholesale trade | 86.3% | Opolskie |
| Accommodation and food service | 83.2% | Lubelskie |
| Manufacturing | 80.7% | Podlaskie |
| Retail trade | 76.5% | Podlaskie |
| Construction | 73.4% | Śląskie |
Improving business sentiment and the growing role of the company’s financial situation in pay decisions go hand in hand. Entrepreneurs are increasingly raising wages when their own financial results allow it, rather than because of labour market pressure or the need to match competitors. This suggests a more defensive than expansionary approach to wage policy.
- Business sentiment is improving fastest in construction and accommodation with food service activities — sectors where companies may currently show a greater willingness to invest and hire.
- Manufacturing and retail trade remain the most pessimistic sectors. R-BCI was negative there in the clear majority of voivodeships, despite the general improvement seen since the beginning of the year.
- Employment costs are the common denominator of problems across the economy. Even in sections where sentiment is improving, they remain the main barrier to growth.
- Companies’ pay decisions are now driven mainly by their own financial condition rather than by the desire to maintain competitive wages — a signal that wage pressure in the labour market is weakening.
- Regional differences are significant, ranging from extremely negative assessments in some voivodeships, such as retail trade in Opolskie with an R-BCI of -16.7, to record-high optimism elsewhere, such as accommodation in Podkarpackie at 38.1. Regional expansion policies should take these differences into account.
Source: Statistics Poland data, Business Tendency Survey. Voivodeship Report, June 2026. Own compilation based on Statistics Poland data.
