The latest NBP projection puts GDP growth at 3.7% in 2026 and significantly revises the inflation path upwards, to 2.9% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027, compared with 2.3% and 2.4%, respectively, in the March projection. Growth is expected to be driven by stronger investment supported by National Recovery Plan funds, although the central bank assesses the risks to inflation in 2028 as tilted to the upside.
NBP forecasts GDP growth of 3.7% in 2026, slightly below the March projection of 3.9%, followed by a marked slowdown to 2.8% in 2027 and a recovery to 3.0% in 2028. Growth reached 3.6% in 2025, while current data for the second quarter of 2026, including industrial output, retail sales and the wage bill, point to an acceleration in GDP growth to 3.8% year on year after a decline to 3.5% in the first quarter. Domestic demand remains the main driver of growth, supported by stronger investment, although net exports are expected to make a negative contribution to GDP growth through most of the projection horizon.
Among the factors expected to constrain growth later in the projection horizon, NBP points to lower absorption of EU funds after the 2026 peak, an elevated household saving rate, rising expenditure related to the energy transition and weak external demand. For the euro area, NBP cut its 2026 growth forecast to 0.5% from 1.1% in March, while the forecast for Germany was lowered to 0.7% from 1.0%.
CPI inflation is projected at 2.9% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027, a significant upward revision from the March projection of 2.3% and 2.4%, respectively. The change primarily reflects higher import prices, including fuel, transport services and recreational services, as well as stronger demand pressure, reflected in a temporarily positive output gap in 2026. Core inflation is expected to reach 3.1% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027 before falling to 2.4% in 2028, as cost pressures linked to developments in global commodity markets begin to fade.
| Indicator | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP (year on year, %) — July 2026 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 3.0 |
| GDP (year on year, %) — March 2026 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 |
| CPI (year on year, %) — July 2026 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.2 |
| CPI (year on year, %) — March 2026 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.3 |
| Wages (year on year, %) | — | 8.7 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 5.5 |
| Gross fixed capital formation (year on year, %) | — | 4.4 | 7.1 | 1.6 | 2.7 |
| Current account balance (% of GDP) | — | -0.9 | -0.9 | -1.1 | -0.6 |
The central bank estimates that the probability of inflation remaining within the target tolerance band of 1.5–3.5% is 79% in 2026, falling to 40% in 2027 and 33% in 2028. This points to growing uncertainty over the durability of inflation’s return to target as the projection horizon extends. NBP explicitly identifies upside risks to CPI inflation in 2028, while the balance of risks around the GDP path is broadly symmetrical.
| Year | Central CPI path | 50% interval (lower bound) | 50% interval (upper bound) | Probability of remaining within the 1.5–3.5% band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 79% |
| 2027 | 2.7% | 1.5% | 4.0% | 40% |
| 2028 | 2.2% | 0.8% | 3.9% | 33% |
The unemployment rate is expected to remain stable throughout the projection horizon at around 3.0–3.2%. At the same time, wage growth is slowing markedly, from 8.7% in 2025 to 6.4% in 2026, 5.8% in 2027 and 5.5% in 2028. This is expected to contribute directly to slower household consumption growth compared with 2025. NBP also notes a continued decline in payroll employment in the enterprise sector, down 0.8% year on year in May 2026 according to the Labour Force Survey, while the Broad Labour Underutilisation Index rose to 5.1%, well above the unemployment rate of 3.2%. This signals a hidden reserve of labour despite formally low unemployment.
Gross fixed capital formation is expected to accelerate from 4.4% in 2025 to 7.1% in 2026, before slowing sharply to 1.6% in 2027 and recovering to 2.7% in 2028. The main factor behind the 2026 acceleration is a strong increase in the inflow of EU funds under the National Recovery Plan. Nearly two-thirds of the plan’s funding remains to be used in 2026 and 2027, while data for the first months of the year point to faster disbursement. Poland nevertheless remains below the EU average in its use of Recovery and Resilience Facility grants in 2020–2025, leaving room for further acceleration.
Poland strengthened its position in the EU market in 2025, becoming the third-largest supplier of goods to euro area markets, behind China and the United States but ahead of Czechia, the United Kingdom and Switzerland. Poland’s share of euro area imports also continued to rise compared with 2024. Since 2020, the volume of Polish goods exports has grown significantly faster than the EU and German averages, making Poland one of the region’s leaders in the post-pandemic export recovery. Between January 2025 and March 2026, the categories making the strongest contribution to export growth included clothing and accessories, meat and meat products, and computers and office machinery, while Germany, Czechia and Sweden were the largest growth markets.
Business perspective: the upward revision to the inflation path for 2026–2027, from 2.3% to 2.9% and from 2.4% to 2.7%, respectively, combined with the assumption of unchanged NBP interest rates, implies a longer period of elevated financing costs and price pressure for businesses than expected in March. Companies may therefore need to revise their budget assumptions for 2026–2027 accordingly.
At the same time, the marked acceleration in investment in 2026, to 7.1%, supported by National Recovery Plan funds, creates opportunities for companies in construction, technology and public-sector services, provided that the government maintains the announced pace of EU fund disbursement, which has so far remained below the EU average.
- NBP forecasts GDP growth of 3.7% in 2026, down from 3.9% in March, and has also lowered its 2027 forecast to 2.8%. At the same time, it has sharply revised the inflation path upwards, to 2.9% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027, compared with 2.3% and 2.4%, respectively, in March.
- The probability of inflation remaining within the target tolerance band falls from 79% in 2026 to 33% in 2028, with NBP identifying upside risks to inflation in 2028.
- Wage growth is slowing markedly, from 8.7% in 2025 to 5.5% in 2028, which is expected to limit the pace of private consumption growth in the coming years.
- Investment is expected to accelerate to 7.1% in 2026 thanks to National Recovery Plan funds, around two-thirds of which remain to be used, before slowing sharply to 1.6% in 2027.
- In 2025, Poland was the third-largest supplier of goods to euro area markets, increasing its market share compared with 2024.
- Despite persistently low unemployment of around 3.1%, the Broad Labour Underutilisation Index has risen to 5.1%, while payroll employment in the enterprise sector continues to decline.
- The main risks to the projection include further developments in the Middle East conflict and their impact on commodity prices, EU decisions on industrial and trade policy, the implementation of ETS2 in 2028 and future fiscal policy amid a high budget deficit.
