Over the past two decades, the average offer price per square meter of housing in Warsaw has risen from PLN 5,873 to PLN 18,055.84 on the primary market — an increase of 207%. On the secondary market, prices climbed from PLN 7,179 to PLN 18,919.02, up 164%. Warsaw’s boom-bust cycle ran on a slightly different timeline than in other Polish cities, with prices continuing to rise for a year or two after the 2008 financial crisis before a long, shallow correction set in.
Two decades of Warsaw’s housing market
NBP’s BaRN data makes it possible to track housing price changes in Warsaw from Q3 2006 through Q1 2026 — a span of almost 20 years. Over that period, the average offer price per square meter on the primary market rose from PLN 5,873 to PLN 18,055.84, an increase of 207%. On the secondary market, prices rose from PLN 7,179 to PLN 18,919.02, up 164%. That works out to an average annual growth rate of roughly 5.9% on the primary market and 5.1% on the secondary market over the full period.
A later peak, a longer correction
The first phase, spanning 2006–2009, was a sustained credit-fueled boom. Primary-market prices rose from PLN 5,873 in Q3 2006 to a peak of PLN 9,992.96 in Q3 2009 — notably, the peak came almost two years after the onset of the global financial crisis, reflecting Warsaw’s relative resilience as Poland’s capital and largest labour market. The secondary market peaked slightly earlier, in Q4 2008, at PLN 10,196.
The correction that followed was long but comparatively shallow. Primary-market prices declined gradually until Q4 2016, bottoming out at PLN 7,638.06 — a decline of 23.6% from the 2009 peak, spread over seven years. The secondary market’s trough came earlier, in Q3 2013, at PLN 8,544.23, a milder 16.2% decline from its 2008 peak.
Recovery began in earnest around 2017–2018 and accelerated steadily through the pandemic years, as low interest rates and strong demand for rental investment property pushed prices higher without the sharp swings seen in the previous decade.
The final leg of the run-up followed the mid-2023 launch of the government’s “Bezpieczny Kredyt 2%” mortgage subsidy program. The average primary-market offer price rose from PLN 13,301.62 in Q1 2023 to PLN 16,189.65 a year later — up 21.7%. On the secondary market, the increase over the same period was 27.0%, reaching PLN 17,560.14. Since 2024, growth has continued at a more moderate pace, with prices reaching PLN 18,055.84 on the primary market and PLN 18,919.02 on the secondary market in Q1 2026 — comfortably the highest level of any city in the BaRN dataset.
BaRN data covers offer and transaction prices for multi-family housing units sold, and includes VAT. The survey runs on a quarterly cycle: Q1 covers December–February, Q2 covers March–May, Q3 covers June–August, and Q4 covers September–November. The database has been maintained by the National Bank of Poland since Q3 2006.
Key moments by the numbers
| Period | Primary market, offer (PLN/m²) | Secondary market, offer (PLN/m²) | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2006 | 5,873.00 | 7,179.00 | Start of the BaRN database |
| 2008 / 2009 (peak) | 9,992.96 | 10,196.00 | Peak of the boom (primary Q3 2009, secondary Q4 2008) |
| 2013 / 2016 (trough) | 7,638.06 | 8,544.23 | Bottom of the correction (primary Q4 2016, secondary Q3 2013) |
| Q1 2019 | 9,426.99 | 10,287.43 | Pre-pandemic price level |
| Q1 2023 | 13,301.62 | 13,829.75 | Before the “Bezpieczny Kredyt 2%” program |
| Q1 2026 | 18,055.84 | 18,919.02 | Current level |
Data source: National Bank of Poland (NBP), BaRN residential property price database, Q3 2006 – Q1 2026. Own compilation based on NBP data.
