Poland’s latest preliminary GDP reading for the first quarter of 2026 came in below market expectations, pointing to a weaker start to the year than investors had anticipated. According to Statistics Poland’s flash estimate, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 0.5% quarter on quarter in Q1 2026. In annual terms, seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 3.4%.
The quarterly figure was lower than the previous reading of 1.1% and slightly below market expectations of 0.6%. The annual seasonally adjusted reading also disappointed, slowing from 4.1% previously and missing the expected 3.7%. The data suggest that the Polish economy is still expanding, but its growth momentum weakened at the beginning of 2026.
The weaker GDP figure may become an important argument in the domestic monetary policy debate. Slower economic growth could support the Monetary Policy Council’s cautious “wait and see” approach, especially at a time when potential interest rate hikes are being discussed.
Higher interest rates would increase the cost of financing for households and companies. In an environment of softer growth, such a move could place additional pressure on investment, consumption and overall economic activity.
“Slower GDP growth will certainly be a factor that may support the Monetary Policy Council’s ‘wait and see’ rhetoric, as the interest rate hikes under consideration would have a further negative impact on economic development in Poland,” said Piotr Bawolski, CFA, Director for Strategic Clients at Michael / Ström Dom Maklerski.
The preliminary nature of the data is also important. Statistics Poland noted that the flash estimate may still be revised in line with the regular revision policy for quarterly national accounts. The first regular estimate of GDP for Q1 2026 is scheduled for publication on June 1, 2026.
