The conflict in the Middle East and the risk of a sudden surge in oil prices have officially been incorporated into the Polish government’s macroeconomic forecast. The Ministry of Finance has published an explanation in response to the Fiscal Council’s opinion on the Multiannual Macroeconomic Assumptions for 2026–2030, in which it defends the more cautious forecast scenario adopted and announces that the forecast will be updated during work on the 2027 state budget.
Timeline
- by 30 April 2026statutory deadline for the Council of Ministers to adopt the Multiannual Macroeconomic Assumptions under Article 138(1a) of the Public Finance Act
- 11 May 2026the Fiscal Council submits its opinion on the Multiannual Macroeconomic Assumptions for 2026–2030 to the Minister of Finance
- 10 July 2026the Minister of Finance publishes an explanation in response to the Fiscal Council’s opinion under Article 5(1)(2) of the Fiscal Council Act
- work on the 2027 Budget Actplanned update of the macroeconomic forecast to incorporate data on the consequences of the conflict in the Middle East
The Multiannual Macroeconomic Assumptions are a document containing all macroeconomic indicators required under Article 142(1)(2) of the Public Finance Act for the budget year and the following three years. Specific fiscal decisions and measures, in accordance with Article 86(1)(2a) of the same act, are presented separately in subsequent draft budget acts. The document therefore merely initiates the process of preparing the 2027 budget. Measures concerning the years 2028–2030 are expected to be included in future draft budgets.
What the macroeconomic forecast must contain
In its explanation, the Ministry reiterates the full list of indicators required by law, all of which, according to the Ministry, are included in the Multiannual Macroeconomic Assumptions for 2026–2030:
- a forecast of GDP and its components, including net exports and domestic demand, covering private and public consumption and gross fixed capital formation
- the GDP deflator
- the annual average consumer price index
- the exchange rate
- average gross wages in the national economy
- employment and unemployment levels
- the current account balance
The document does not provide specific numerical values for these indicators. The Ministry of Finance’s explanation is procedural and legal in nature, confirming that the assumptions comply with statutory requirements rather than presenting the forecasts themselves.
Shock scenario: oil prices and the conflict in the Middle East
The key point of disagreement with the Fiscal Council concerns the treatment of risks associated with the conflict in the Middle East. Due to the exceptionally high level of uncertainty at the time the document was prepared, a shock scenario was added to the assumptions. It provides for a sharp increase in oil prices and, in line with the methodology used by international institutions, presents the potential impact of such an increase on the Polish economy. At the same time, the Ministry adopted a more cautious baseline forecast in order to reduce risks during the implementation of the Budget Act.
The Fiscal Council recommended that a scenario involving a stronger increase in oil prices caused by the war in the Middle East than the increase assumed in the shock scenario should be adopted as the baseline scenario. The Ministry of Finance responded that this recommendation may already be outdated and announced that the forecast would be updated as part of the work on the 2027 budget, using the available data on the conflict and its consequences for oil and gas prices.
Under Article 4(1) of Council Directive 2011/85/EU of 8 November 2011 on requirements for budgetary frameworks of the Member States, budgetary planning must be based on the most likely macrofiscal scenario or on a more cautious scenario. The Ministry refers to the latter option when explaining its approach.
Fiscal rules and the 55% debt-to-GDP threshold
The forecast included in the Multiannual Macroeconomic Assumptions provides for gradual fiscal consolidation in accordance with EU fiscal rules, the stabilising expenditure rule and domestic legislation governing the prudential procedure applicable when public debt reaches a high level. Corrective measures described in Article 86 of the Public Finance Act are implemented in the year following the year in which public debt is officially declared to have exceeded 55% of GDP. In particular, these measures include:
- preparing a balanced state budget or a budget ensuring a declining ratio of State Treasury debt to GDP
- freezing the salaries of employees in the state budget sector
- limiting the indexation of pensions and disability benefits so that it does not exceed the increase in consumer prices recorded in the previous budget year
The Ministry of Finance’s explanation does not specify whether the 55% debt-to-GDP threshold has been exceeded or is expected to be exceeded during the 2026–2030 forecast period. The document refers only to the statutory mechanism, rather than to a specific forecast for the level of public debt.
| Legal basis | Scope |
|---|---|
| Article 142(1)(2) of the Public Finance Act | List of macroeconomic indicators that must be included in the Multiannual Macroeconomic Assumptions |
| Article 86(1)(2a) of the Public Finance Act | Specific fiscal measures presented in draft budget acts |
| Article 138(1a) of the Public Finance Act | Deadline for the Council of Ministers to adopt the Multiannual Macroeconomic Assumptions: 30 April |
| Article 5(1)(2) of the Fiscal Council Act | Obligation of the Ministry of Finance to provide an explanation in response to the Fiscal Council’s opinion |
| Article 86 of the Public Finance Act | Prudential procedure and corrective measures following the breach of the 55% debt-to-GDP threshold |
| Article 4(1) of Council Directive 2011/85/EU | Requirement for budgetary planning to be based on the most likely or a more cautious macrofiscal scenario |
What happens next
The Ministry of Finance has announced that the macroeconomic forecast will be updated during work on the 2027 Budget Act, based on the data then available concerning the development of the conflict in the Middle East and its consequences for oil and gas prices. It is the draft 2027 Budget Act, rather than the Multiannual Macroeconomic Assumptions themselves, that will contain specific fiscal measures. The assumptions remain a framework document that opens the budget preparation process.
Source: Ministry of Finance, “Explanation by the Minister of Finance in Response to the Fiscal Council’s Opinion on the Multiannual Macroeconomic Assumptions for 2026–2030,” Warsaw, 10 July 2026. Original analysis based on the Ministry of Finance document.
