Consumer sentiment in Poland improved in May 2026, according to the latest flash estimate published by Statistics Poland (GUS). Both key indicators — the current consumer confidence indicator and the leading consumer confidence indicator — increased compared with April, suggesting a recovery in household sentiment after the spring weakening.
The current consumer confidence indicator (BWUK), which reflects present trends in individual consumption, rose by 2.8 points month on month and reached −11.3. Although the indicator remains below zero, meaning that pessimistic assessments still outweigh optimistic ones, the result marks a clear improvement compared with April and is also 3.2 points higher than in May 2025.
The leading consumer confidence indicator (WWUK), which measures expectations for the coming months, also improved. In May 2026, it stood at −8.5, up by 2.7 points from April. All four components of the indicator increased at the same time, which points to a broader improvement in expectations among Polish households.
Households see better prospects, but caution remains
The strongest improvement in the current confidence indicator was recorded in the assessment of the country’s economic situation over the past 12 months, which increased by 4.9 points. Households also became more positive about their own financial situation over the next 12 months, with this component rising by 4.7 points.
The only component that deteriorated slightly was the assessment of the current ability to make major purchases, which fell by 0.4 points. This suggests that although consumers are beginning to feel more optimistic about the outlook, they remain cautious when it comes to spending decisions.
In May 2026, the components of the current consumer confidence indicator were as follows:
- household financial situation over the past 12 months: −5.7
- household financial situation over the next 12 months: −3.0
- country’s economic situation over the past 12 months: −23.5
- country’s economic situation over the next 12 months: −20.9
- current ability to make major purchases: −3.6
Expectations also improve
The leading consumer confidence indicator reflects expected trends in private consumption. It is based on assessments of the household’s future financial situation, the country’s future economic situation, expected unemployment levels and the ability to save money.
In May 2026, all four components improved. The household financial outlook rose by 4.7 points, expectations regarding the country’s economic situation increased by 2.9 points, the unemployment component improved by 1.8 points, and the assessment of the ability to save rose by 1.6 points.
One notable feature of the data is the persistently positive reading for the ability to save. In May, this component stood at +14.8, making it the only element of the leading indicator that has remained clearly above zero for several months. This may indicate both stronger household incomes and a cautious attitude toward future uncertainty.
The war in Ukraine remains a factor, but its perceived impact is easing
The GUS survey once again included additional questions on the impact of the war in Ukraine on consumer sentiment. The May results suggest a gradual normalization in the way this risk factor is perceived.
In May 2026, 13.7% of respondents said the situation in Ukraine had a significant impact on their answers, while 39.3% described the impact as moderate. At the same time, 47.0% said it had no impact.
The share of respondents who considered the war a major threat to the Polish economy fell to 22.3%, down from 24.8% in March. The perceived threat to respondents’ personal financial situation also declined. Among working respondents, more than half did not report concerns about losing their job.
Consumer sentiment remains below pre-pandemic levels
A longer-term comparison shows how deeply consumer confidence deteriorated in 2022 following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the surge in inflation. The annual average current consumer confidence indicator fell to −39.8 in 2022.
Since then, sentiment has gradually improved. The May 2026 reading of −11.3 is far better than the crisis levels recorded in 2022, although it remains below the pre-pandemic highs. In 2019, the annual average BWUK stood at +7.7, while the leading indicator reached +4.0.
This means that Polish consumer sentiment is recovering, but has not yet returned to the strong optimism seen before the pandemic and the inflation shock.
Key conclusions
The May data confirm that consumer sentiment in Poland is entering a phase of recovery after the weakening observed in April. The improvement is visible in both current assessments and expectations for the coming months.
The main conclusions are:
- The current consumer confidence indicator rose to −11.3, improving by 2.8 points month on month.
- The leading consumer confidence indicator increased to −8.5, up by 2.7 points from April.
- All four components of the leading indicator improved, indicating a broad-based recovery in expectations.
- The ability to save remains the strongest component, with a positive reading of +14.8.
- Concerns related to the war in Ukraine are gradually easing, although they remain present in consumer assessments.
- Despite the improvement, both indicators remain negative, meaning that pessimism still outweighs optimism.
For businesses and investors, the data suggest that Polish households are slowly regaining confidence in their financial outlook. This could support consumer spending in the coming quarters, especially if wage growth, inflation and labour market conditions remain favourable.
At the same time, the recovery remains fragile. Consumers are still cautious, particularly in their assessment of the country’s economic situation and their willingness to make major purchases. The direction of sentiment in the second half of 2026 will likely depend on inflation trends, real income growth and stability in the labour market.
