Statistics Poland flash release · 15 May 2026
Inflation in Poland — April 2026
Service prices are rising more than twice as fast as goods prices. Butter is down by 22.5%, while berries are up by 29.5%.
General picture
Inflation accelerated, but remains within the MPC target range
In April 2026, the consumer price index (CPI) stood at 3.2% year on year, accelerating from 3.0% recorded in March. The reading is in line with Statistics Poland’s earlier flash estimate and is located in the upper half of the tolerance band around the Monetary Policy Council’s inflation target of 2.5% ±1 percentage point.
Compared with the previous month, prices rose by 0.6% — a stronger move than in March (+0.3%), although still below the sharp increases seen at the beginning of the year (+1.1% in March, +0.7% in January). Service prices are rising at +5.2% y/y, while goods prices are up by only +2.4% — services have been a persistent inflation driver for many quarters.
COICOP categories
Education and alcohol–tobacco lead price increases, while clothing and household equipment are cheaper
Out of the thirteen main COICOP 2018 categories, as many as eleven recorded year-on-year price increases. The strongest growth was seen in education (+6.0% y/y), alcoholic beverages and tobacco (+6.7%), and health (+5.0%). The only group showing a clear deflationary signal is clothing and footwear (–2.8% y/y), reflecting global price trends in the apparel sector and the strong zloty against the currencies of Asian producers.
| Category | Weight % | Apr 2026 / Apr 2025 | Apr 2026 / Dec 2025 | Apr 2026 / Mar 2026 | Jan–Apr 2026 / Jan–Apr 2025 | Impact on CPI (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total (CPI) | 100.0 | 103.2 | 102.7 | 100.6 | 102.6 | — |
| Food and non-alcoholic beverages | 25.91 | 101.9 | 102.3 | 100.6 | 102.2 | 0.15 |
| Alcoholic beverages and tobacco | 4.81 | 106.7 | 103.4 | 100.6 | 106.8 | 0.03 |
| Clothing and footwear | 3.75 | 97.2 | 100.4 | 102.5 | 97.0 | 0.09* |
| Housing, energy and water | 20.35 | 104.8 | 102.9 | 100.6 | 104.3 | 0.12 |
| Furnishings and household equipment | 5.18 | 99.2 | 100.3 | 100.4 | 98.7 | 0.02 |
| Health | 6.20 | 105.0 | 102.7 | 100.6 | 104.9 | 0.04 |
| Transport | 10.18 | 103.5 | 105.3 | 100.0 | 98.7 | 0.00 |
| Information and communication | 5.02 | 104.7 | 103.2 | 100.8 | 103.9 | 0.04 |
| Recreation, sport and culture | 6.37 | 104.6 | 104.3 | 100.9 | 104.1 | 0.06 |
| Education | 1.03 | 106.0 | 100.5 | 100.1 | 106.1 | 0.00 |
| Restaurants and accommodation services | 5.55 | 104.4 | 101.5 | 100.6 | 104.7 | 0.03 |
| Insurance and financial services | 1.24 | 98.9 | 97.7 | 100.4 | 99.8 | 0.00 |
| Personal care and other goods and services | 4.41 | 101.7 | 102.1 | 100.3 | 101.6 | 0.01 |
* The impact of clothing on the overall index was –0.11 pp y/y, lowering the index, but +0.09 pp m/m due to the seasonal spring increase. The table presents the m/m impact.
Month-on-month inflation drivers
What pushed prices up the most in April compared with March?
Looking at month-on-month changes, the strongest positive contribution to CPI growth in April came from passenger transport services (+0.10 pp), reflecting seasonal increases in ticket and travel prices. Next came water supply and municipal services (+0.07 pp), clothing prices (+0.06 pp, seasonal spring collections), and vegetables (+0.05 pp). The only clear deflationary factor was fuels and lubricants for private transport (–0.10 pp), reflecting seasonal and global corrections in oil prices.
Food in detail
Butter is cheaper, while berries and eggs are sharply more expensive
Food as a whole rose by 1.7% y/y when looking at food alone, excluding beverages. Within this category, however, there are deep disparities. Berries became as much as 29.5% more expensive year on year — an effect of both a low base from last year and difficult agrometeorological conditions. Exceptionally strong deflation was recorded for butter (–22.5%) and potatoes (–25.4%), which had been much more expensive a year earlier. Beef and veal rose by 16.1% y/y — a signal of pressure from livestock farming costs and limited supply.
| Product | Y/y change |
|---|---|
| Fresh berries | +29.5% |
| Margarine | +7.0% |
| Eggs | +6.4% |
| Beef and veal | +16.1% |
| Smoked and salted fish | +11.8% |
| Cauliflower and broccoli | +26.5% |
| Other fresh fruit | +14.0% |
| Dairy desserts and drinks | +5.4% |
| Product | Y/y change |
|---|---|
| Potatoes | –25.4% |
| Butter and dairy fats | –22.5% |
| Cabbage | –8.1% |
| Vegetable oils other than olive oil | –12.0% |
| Plant-based milk | –4.9% |
| Pork | –6.0% |
| Beetroot | –11.7% |
| Pasta and noodles | –1.0% |
Inflation basket 2026
COICOP 2018 weighting system — what carries the greatest weight?
The largest weight in the CPI basket is assigned to food and non-alcoholic beverages (25.91%), followed by housing costs (energy, water, rent — 20.35%). Together, these two categories account for nearly half of the basket. The relatively low weight of education (1.03%) explains why its strong increase (+6.0% y/y) has a negligible impact on the overall index.
CPI vs HICP
Polish inflation in the European context
The HICP index, the harmonised index of consumer prices used for European comparisons, stood at 3.2% in March 2026 — the same as CPI. For most of 2024, HICP was higher than domestic CPI, but since late 2025 both measures have converged to similar levels. The methodological difference between CPI and HICP results mainly from the different treatment of housing costs and different category weights.
Analytical conclusions
Three key observations from Statistics Poland’s data
1. Services inflation remains the main challenge. Service prices rising by 5.2% y/y are growing almost twice as fast as goods prices (+2.4%). As long as the labour market remains tight and wages continue to rise at more than 7–8% y/y, services will exert persistent inflationary pressure. This is a structural phenomenon on which NBP interest-rate policy has limited influence in the short term.
2. Seasonality and base effects strongly shape annual data. The contrast between berries (+29.5%) and butter (–22.5%) or potatoes (–25.4%) shows how strongly annual data reflect prices from a year earlier rather than current fundamentals. Analysts should therefore follow indicators adjusted for base effects.
3. The MPC inflation target has been met, but without a large safety margin. CPI at 3.2% remains within the permitted range of 1.5%–3.5%, but in its upper part. Further acceleration — for example due to a sharp rise in energy prices or a marked weakening of the zloty — could push inflation outside the band and change the MPC’s narrative on interest rates.
