The first quarter of 2026 brought a positive surprise for Poland’s industrial and logistics real estate market. Strong tenant activity translated into clear absorption of available space and a decline in the vacancy rate. This marks a departure from the seasonal pattern seen in previous years, when the beginning of the year usually brought an increase in vacant warehouse space.
According to Colliers’ report Market Insights: Warehouse Market Q1 2026, Poland’s total industrial and logistics stock reached nearly 37 million sq m. Around 650,000 sq m of new space was delivered in the first quarter alone. Although new supply remained relatively high, the market showed that it was able to absorb it effectively.
Developers are expected to deliver between 1.5 million and 2.0 million sq m of new space in 2026. However, Colliers experts note that the pace of new development remains closely linked to actual demand. This points to a more cautious and selective approach among developers than in previous phases of rapid market expansion.
A strong impulse came from tenant activity. Gross take-up in Q1 2026 reached around 1.6 million sq m, an increase of more than 40% year on year. Net demand rose even more clearly, growing by around 75% year on year and reaching the highest first-quarter level since 2022.
Importantly, new leases and expansions accounted for 54% of total activity. This means that the market was driven primarily by real occupier demand, rather than by renegotiations, which had played a larger role in recent quarters.
“The first quarter of 2026 showed a clear return of real tenant demand. High absorption allowed the market to effectively absorb a relatively large part of existing supply, which translated into a decline in vacancies — a phenomenon rarely observed at the beginning of the year,” said Antoni Szwech, Senior Analyst at Colliers.
At the same time, the market is going through a phase of rental stabilisation. Rents remain broadly unchanged compared with the previous year. Local adjustments are visible in selected locations, mainly as a result of the balance between project quality, space availability and cost pressure on developers.
“Poland’s industrial and logistics market has entered a mature phase, in which its attractiveness is determined by stable fundamentals and predictability. For tenants, this means greater certainty in planning today — both in terms of costs and the availability of modern space in key locations. At the same time, growing interest from international trading platforms expanding their operations in Poland confirms the country’s role as a safe and competitive hub for European supply chains,” said Maciej Chmielewski, Senior Partner and Head of Industrial and Logistics at Colliers.
At the end of March 2026, nearly 1.5 million sq m of industrial and logistics space was under construction. This represented an increase of 6% year on year, but a decline of 18% quarter on quarter. According to Colliers, this quarterly decrease is typical for the first months of the year, when a large volume of completed projects is delivered to the market.
Despite some schedule shifts caused by weather conditions, the volume of newly started construction projects increased by around 15% year on year, reaching 350,000 sq m. Developers, however, remain selective. The share of speculative space under construction has stayed below 40% for several months.
At the same time, the share of projects secured by lease agreements has increased to around 63%. This is the highest level since the second quarter of 2021 and indicates a more demand-driven development model.
“Developers’ selectivity is a sign of market maturity. Projects are increasingly responding to specific tenant needs, which reduces the risk of oversupply and supports vacancy stabilisation,” added Antoni Szwech.
After a longer period in which the vacancy rate remained stable at 7–8%, the market recorded a downward trend. At the end of Q1 2026, the vacancy rate stood at 7.2%, down by 0.2 percentage points quarter on quarter and by as much as 1.3 percentage points year on year.
This is particularly important because since 2023, the first quarter had usually brought an increase in vacancies. In 2026, this pattern was broken thanks to high absorption of existing warehouse stock.
Lower Silesia stood out against the national market. Although the region’s vacancy rate remains slightly above the national average, at nearly 8%, it fell by as much as 2.8 percentage points quarter on quarter. The region also recorded the highest net demand in Poland, at nearly 230,000 sq m.
Net demand in Lower Silesia accounted for around 90% of gross take-up, showing that tenant activity in the region was driven mainly by new leases and expansions. Given the current level of enquiries, Colliers expects the absorption trend to continue in the coming months.
