Poland’s industrial output rose 4.1% year on year in May 2026, confirming that the sector remains on a growth path. The picture was less convincing month on month, however, with unadjusted production down 0.8% from April as weakness in automotive, furniture and other consumer-facing industries offset solid gains in intermediate, energy-related and investment goods.
Macro brief · Statistics Poland (GUS) · May 2026
Industrial output up 4.1% year on year in May, but momentum cooled against April
Poland’s sold industrial production was 4.1% higher than a year earlier in May 2026, close to the 4.0% gain of a year before. Against April, however, output slipped 0.8% — the first sign this year that the spring rebound is losing pace.
Industry stayed on a growth path in May, extending a streak that has held through most of the first half of the year. The annual gain of 4.1% in constant prices nearly matched the 4.0% reported for May 2025, while the cumulative result for the first five months reached 3.1% — double the 1.6% recorded a year earlier. The seasonally adjusted figures are slightly firmer: 4.4% above the same month of 2025 and 1.4% above April.
The soft spot was the monthly comparison. Unadjusted output fell 0.8% against April; weaker months tend to follow strong ones, and April had already cooled from a very strong March. Stripping out calendar and seasonal effects reverses that picture, leaving output 1.4% higher than the previous month.
Where the growth came from
Among the main industrial groupings, the strongest annual increase came from intermediate goods, up 7.5%, followed by energy-related goods at 4.8% and investment goods at 4.4%. Non-durable consumer goods edged up 0.5%. The exception was durable consumer goods, down 4.6% — a category that includes furniture and household equipment, where demand has stayed weak.
By section, mining and quarrying recorded the sharpest annual jump, up 32.6%, helped by a low base and stronger coal output. Power generation and supply rose 13.7% year on year and water supply and waste management 11.9%. Manufacturing, which accounts for roughly 86% of total industrial output, grew a more modest 2.5%.
| Section | vs May 2025 | vs April 2026 | Index (2021=100) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industry, total | +4.1% | −0.8% | 114.6 |
| Mining & quarrying | +32.6% | +9.9% | 131.0 |
| Manufacturing | +2.5% | −0.9% | 114.9 |
| Electricity, gas & steam supply | +13.7% | −7.6% | 100.4 |
| Water supply, sewage & waste | +11.9% | −0.3% | 131.3 |
Winners and losers across 34 divisions
Output rose year on year in 23 of the 34 industrial divisions. The standout was other transport equipment, up 60.5% — a volatile category that swings with large orders for rolling stock, ships and aircraft parts. Waste management and materials recovery climbed 14.8%, other non-metallic mineral products 12.2%, and both beverages and paper rose 11.8%. Machinery and equipment added 5.7% and computers, electronics and optical products 5.3%.
On the other side, production fell in 11 divisions. Textiles dropped 10.8%, furniture 7.1% and motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 4.4%. Apparel and tobacco saw the steepest declines among smaller divisions.
| Division | vs May 2025 | vs April 2026 | Share of industry |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other transport equipment | +60.5% | +41.0% | 2.8% |
| Waste management & materials recovery | +14.8% | −1.3% | 1.9% |
| Other non-metallic mineral products | +12.2% | +4.9% | 4.3% |
| Beverages | +11.8% | +9.0% | 1.3% |
| Paper & paper products | +11.8% | +6.0% | 2.9% |
| Machinery & equipment | +5.7% | +1.1% | 3.2% |
| Computers, electronics & optical | +5.3% | −2.7% | 2.5% |
| Metals | +4.6% | −2.0% | 3.3% |
| Rubber & plastics | +4.2% | −3.6% | 5.9% |
| Food products | +0.8% | −1.1% | 16.9% |
| Motor vehicles, trailers & semi-trailers | −4.4% | −3.3% | 9.5% |
| Furniture | −7.1% | −7.0% | 2.1% |
| Textiles | −10.8% | −3.6% | 0.6% |
| Apparel | −20.3% | −12.7% | 0.3% |
What it means for business
May confirms that Polish industry remains in expansion, but the engine is shifting. Growth is now led by intermediate and energy-related goods rather than consumer demand, pointing to a recovery driven by the supply chain and production inputs more than by household spending.
- Investment signal holding. Investment goods up 4.4% and machinery up 5.7% suggest companies are still committing capital — constructive for suppliers of equipment and industrial components.
- Consumer durables remain the weak link. A 4.6% drop in durable consumer goods, with furniture down 7.1%, shows interest-rate-sensitive demand has yet to recover.
- Automotive softening. Motor vehicles fell 4.4% year on year and 3.3% on the month — worth watching given the sector’s 9.5% weight in total output.
- Momentum is cooling. The 0.8% monthly decline does not break the trend, but it tempers expectations that the strong first-quarter pace will simply continue into the summer.
Source: own analysis based on data from Statistics Poland (GUS), “Sold industrial production in May 2026”, 19 June 2026. Preliminary data; constant prices; firms employing 10 or more people. Section and division names abbreviated per PKD 2007.
