In the opening quarter of 2026, Poland recorded a year-on-year decline in the number of insolvent companies for the first time since the pre-pandemic period. According to a report by Coface, 1,288 companies in Poland declared insolvency during that period. This was 10.1% fewer than in the corresponding period of the previous year.
Experts warn, however, that this may only be the result of temporary stabilisation. In the coming months, financial pressure may return due to the impact of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, including tensions in the Middle East and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. What caused the change in insolvency dynamics, and what can be expected in the next quarters of the Polish economy?
Although the beginning of 2026 brought an improvement in the condition of companies, forecasts for the Polish economy remain far from unequivocally optimistic. In the first quarter, businesses benefited from stronger demand, improved liquidity and slower wage cost growth, which translated into temporary relief for the corporate sector. At the same time, the increase in economic activity was largely supported by anticipatory measures. In response to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, companies increased production, while consumers brought forward purchases amid concerns over possible supply disruptions and rising fuel prices.
Macroeconomic factors are gaining importance
In recent years, the number of insolvent companies in Poland has been strongly influenced by the growing share of restructuring proceedings, which businesses have increasingly used to save their operations rather than close them down. Today, however, the growth rate of such proceedings is beginning to slow. If this trend continues in the coming quarters, the situation of companies will increasingly be shaped not by changes in restructuring practices, but by factors such as inflation, interest rates and commodity prices, as well as geopolitical issues, including the situation in the Middle East.
“The effects of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz may be felt not only by oil and gas markets, but also by many other sectors dependent on access to, among other things, fertilisers, aluminium or sulphur,” says Dr Mateusz Dadej, Chief Economist of Coface in Poland and the Central and Eastern Europe region.
“It should be emphasised, however, that in the first quarter of 2026 the consequences of this blockade for the Polish economy were rather limited and even, paradoxically, led to a short-term boost in economic activity. Producers, fearing possible problems with the availability of materials, increased production in advance, which translated into a significant rise in industrial production in March, by as much as 9.4% year on year. Households, in turn, fearing potential increases in fuel prices, accelerated purchases, lifting the March retail sales reading to 8.7% year on year,” the expert explains.
Although at first glance these figures may suggest the strength of the economy, in reality they reflect growing concerns among companies and consumers.
Insolvencies in construction continue to rise
Services remain the sector in which the largest number of companies experienced liquidity problems, with 379 enterprises, representing 29% of all insolvencies. However, construction was the only major sector to record a further increase in the number of insolvencies, up 13.1% year on year.
According to Coface experts, since 2022, when monetary policy tightening began, construction has been systematically increasing its share in total insolvencies. In 2026, 259 companies from this sector faced financial liquidity problems, accounting for around 20% of all insolvencies.
The largest decline in the number of insolvent companies, reaching 36% year on year, was observed in transport. It should be noted, however, that the ongoing fuel shock may mean that the improvement in this sector is only temporary. A similar situation applies to agriculture. Although insolvencies in this sector fell by 25% in the first quarter, economists expect agriculture to come under significant pressure in the coming months due to a sharp increase in fertiliser prices.
“The energy shock related to higher oil prices is already contributing to a deterioration in consumer sentiment and is limiting economic activity. Households are also expected to reduce consumption in response to rising inflation or slower wage growth, which will result in a decline in real incomes,” says Paweł Tobis, Vice-President of the Management Board for Operations and Risk Assessment at Coface.
“There is also a risk of renewed monetary policy tightening. These factors will first affect construction and energy-intensive industry, sectors that already lead insolvency statistics, although the role of industry in economic growth is increasingly declining in favour of services. However, trade and some service activities will also be affected,” he adds.
Relief today, pressure tomorrow: forecasts for the rest of 2026
The year 2026 will be a test of resilience for Polish companies. Although many businesses currently maintain good liquidity, high interest rates and cost pressure will gradually limit their ability to cope with crises. Coface experts therefore expect insolvencies to rise in the coming months. The situation in the Middle East will be an important factor.
“Although it is not known how long the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will last, one thing is absolutely certain: every additional day increases the scale of negative economic consequences,” says Dr Mateusz Dadej.
“The raw materials to which access has been restricted are crucial for the functioning of many sectors of the economy. Energy, petroleum products, fertilisers and aluminium form the foundation of numerous industries, which means that increases in their prices will inevitably affect companies’ cost structures, gradually increasing cost pressure across the economy. From the perspective of households, rising fuel prices, partly cushioned by interventions, mean the need to limit spending on other goods and services, many of which are produced by the domestic economy. For these reasons, Coface currently expects slower economic growth than last year. According to our forecasts, it will amount to 3.5%,” he adds.
The corporate sector currently maintains a historically high level of liquidity, which may allow companies to withstand difficult market conditions for a relatively long period. For this reason, experts expect a gradual increase in the number of insolvencies to begin only in the later quarters of 2026, when Polish companies start to lose their liquidity buffer.
