Industrial production in Poland accelerated markedly in June, with year-on-year growth of 7.6% representing one of the strongest readings in recent years. The manufacture of transport equipment stood out in particular, rising by 24.9% year on year, partly due to growing defence-related orders. These figures fit into a broader picture of the Polish economy: larger, more diversified and increasingly important to European supply chains.
Data: Statistics Poland industrial output figures (June 2026) and Colliers macroeconomic forecasts for 2026–2027 | Published: 20 July 2026
Poland is no longer a country that is merely catching up with the West. It is one of the European Union’s largest economies and a market whose importance increasingly extends beyond Central and Eastern Europe. The country is playing a growing role in European supply chains, energy security and the continent’s industrial resilience. Its strengths lie in the combination of robust domestic demand, low unemployment, increasing scale, a modernising export structure, rapidly developing cities and new growth drivers linked to defence, energy and industry.
The challenges are real, but the foundations of economic growth remain relatively strong. The coming years should therefore be viewed not only through the difficulties facing the Polish economy, but above all through its potential to strengthen its role in the European economy further.
From the periphery to the world’s top 20 economies
The scale of this change is significant. Within a single generation, Poland has moved from the position of a peripheral economy into the ranks of the world’s largest markets. In 1990, it was the world’s 37th-largest economy, smaller than Pakistan, Egypt or Thailand. By 2025, it had moved close to the top 20. According to the latest calculations by the International Monetary Fund, Poland ranks just below Switzerland in 21st place, while its nominal GDP has already exceeded USD 1 trillion.
More importantly, Poland’s growth has not been solely the result of a low starting point. Poland is among the region’s convergence leaders, and the gap in GDP per capita relative to Germany has narrowed significantly. Since joining the European Union, Poland has recorded the highest cumulative growth in real GDP per capita among the 38 OECD countries, outperforming Ireland, South Korea and every G7 economy. This is no longer merely a story of “catching up” – it represents a structural change in Poland’s position within Europe.
Poland’s GDP per capita gap relative to Germany (purchasing power parity)
Source: Colliers. Own calculations.
Growth forecast: 3.5% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027
The coming years should confirm the strength of this model. Colliers forecasts Polish GDP growth of 3.5% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027. This scenario is consistent with the broader consensus that Poland will remain one of the fastest-growing large economies in the EU. Growth is expected to be supported primarily by private consumption and investment, including projects financed with EU funds, particularly during the final stage of spending under the National Recovery Plan.
In practice, this means that in 2026–2027 the short-term investment boost will reinforce long-term trends: infrastructure modernisation, the energy transition, digitalisation, defence and the expansion of domestic industrial capacity.
Poland’s GDP growth forecast (Colliers)
Source: Colliers forecasts. Own calculations.
Labour market: unemployment at around 3%
One of the strengths of the Polish economy is its balanced structure. Growth is not based on a single sector, but on several durable foundations: a large domestic market, strong consumption, low unemployment, rising incomes, an inflow of foreign workers and the growing importance of investment.
Unemployment has fallen from more than 20% in the early 2000s to one of the lowest levels in the European Union. In 2026–2027, the unemployment rate measured according to Eurostat methodology is expected to remain at around 3%, while the decline in the domestic labour supply will be partly offset by foreign workers.
Poland is now the largest economy in Central and Eastern Europe, but its importance increasingly extends beyond regional comparisons.
This distinguishes Poland from many other economies in the region. Compared with Western Europe, Poland continues to benefit from convergence, relatively faster growth and greater scope for further modernisation. Compared with other CEE countries, it stands out for the scale of its market, greater economic diversification, a deeper industrial and logistics base and stronger investment liquidity.
Rating stability as an advantage
An important, though often overlooked, part of this story is Poland’s rating stability. Over the past decade, several developed economies – including the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Belgium – have faced rating pressure and credit-rating downgrades, mainly due to rising debt, high deficits or increasingly difficult fiscal conditions.
Meanwhile, despite the pandemic, the war beyond its eastern border, the energy shock and substantial fiscal needs, Poland has maintained a relatively stable rating profile. This is an important signal for investors: the Polish economy is not only growing rapidly, but also remains macroeconomically credible.
A new phase: defence, energy and industry
The next phase of Poland’s development will take place in a different environment from the previous three decades. Europe is redefining its priorities: after years of focusing on cost efficiency, security, supply-chain resilience, energy, defence and industrial policy are becoming increasingly important. This shift may work to Poland’s advantage, because many of its established strengths – location, industrial base, technical expertise, logistics and relatively competitive costs – are now becoming even more relevant.
Defence
Poland is naturally well positioned to benefit from these changes. Its location on NATO’s eastern flank, rising defence expenditure and military modernisation are increasing the country’s importance in Europe’s security architecture. Defence is not merely a fiscal cost, however: it may also become a driver of industry, infrastructure, logistics, electronics, dual-use technologies, counter-drone systems and advanced manufacturing.
Energy
For years, Poland was viewed mainly through the lens of its high dependence on coal, but it is now becoming one of Europe’s largest construction sites for new energy infrastructure. The country is expanding gas-fired capacity, renewable energy, offshore wind and energy storage, while preparing a nuclear power programme. In a world in which artificial intelligence, data centres and industrial electrification will increase demand for reliable power, the ability to expand the electricity system may become one of Poland’s key competitive advantages.
Industry and logistics
Poland fits well into the logic of European strategic autonomy. It has a large manufacturing base, competitive costs, well-developed industrial capabilities and proximity to Western European markets. The CEE region is becoming an increasingly important manufacturing and logistics base for Western Europe, benefiting from nearshoring, shorter supply chains and improved infrastructure. Within this framework, Poland stands out for the scale of its market, its stock of modern industrial and logistics space, demand from manufacturing and e-commerce, and its growing role as a pan-European distribution hub.
Poland is increasingly serving as Europe’s “safe manufacturing haven”. It is no longer merely a lower-cost location, but a market that combines scale, access to the EU single market, mature logistics, engineering expertise and a growing role in strategic supply chains.
Exports: from furniture to radar systems
The structure of Polish exports is also changing. Poland is gradually moving away from traditional specialisations such as furniture and household appliances towards more advanced categories, including aircraft engines, catalytic converters, biotechnology, radar and navigation systems, and defence products. This does not mean the transformation will be painless: losing some advantages in mature sectors is part of the price of technological advancement. It is, however, a natural stage in the development of an economy shifting from cost-based competition towards quality, specialisation and engineering expertise.
Six Polish cities among Europe’s fastest-growing urban economies
Poland’s transformation is also visible in its cities. Six Polish urban areas ranked among Europe’s 15 fastest-growing city economies between 2004 and 2025: Warsaw, Wrocław, the Tri-City, Kraków, Poznań and Łódź. This shows that Poland’s growth is not concentrated in a single metropolis. Instead, a polycentric development model has emerged, strengthening the labour market, business services, housing demand and the country’s investment attractiveness.
Challenges: public finances and demographics
Poland is not free from challenges. Demographics, the fiscal deficit, energy costs, access to grid capacity, a shallow capital market, lower patent activity and competitive pressure from China are genuine constraints. The general government deficit will remain high, although it is expected to decline gradually from 7.3% of GDP in 2025 to 6.5% in 2026 and 6.3% in 2027, while public debt is forecast to rise to 68.3% of GDP in 2027.
Poland’s general government deficit and public debt (% of GDP)
Source: Colliers forecasts. Own calculations.
This does not undermine the positive overall picture of the economy, but it shows that maintaining Poland’s advantages will require credible fiscal consolidation, better-quality public spending and greater mobilisation of private capital.
Demographics remain one of the most important long-term constraints. Poland has, however, demonstrated an ability to absorb labour migration on a scale that is rarely acknowledged in the European debate. The inflow of foreign workers helps to stabilise the labour market, although it cannot replace the need for greater automation, higher labour-force participation and investment in technical skills.
Conclusion
Poland is therefore entering 2026–2027 not as a peripheral, low-cost market, but as a large, diversified and increasingly strategic European economy. Its advantage lies in the combination of scale, resilient domestic demand, industrial capabilities, advanced logistics and a growing role in the areas that will define Europe’s future: security, energy, infrastructure, technology and supply-chain resilience. Poland’s established formula for growth has not become obsolete; rather, its substance is changing. The focus is shifting away from merely catching up with the West and towards using Poland’s own scale and location within a Europe that is redefining the sources of its strength.
Sources: Colliers report and Statistics Poland data. Own analysis based on Colliers materials.
