The first quarter of 2025 confirmed that Poland’s industrial market doesn’t need record-breaking figures to demonstrate resilience. Gross take-up reached 1.1 million sq m (+16% YoY), with tenants increasingly opting to renew leases. In comparison, developers scale back speculative construction (new supply at 680,000 sq m, -20% YoY), focusing instead on quality and user-specific solutions. Following a slowdown, investors are gradually re-entering the market, with Q1 investment volume in the warehouse and logistics sector totalling EUR 202 million (+47% YoY). AXI IMMO, the largest Polish advisory firm on the commercial real estate market, presents its latest market report, “Polish Industrial and Logistics Market Q1 2025.“
Lease renewals drive 56% of total take-up
Between January and March 2025, over 1.1 million sq m of logistics and industrial space was leased across Poland. The volume of lease renewals surged by 73% YoY – the highest rate in market history – and accounted for 56% of all leasing activity. Meanwhile, net take-up (new leases and expansions only) amounted to 485,000 sq m, reflecting a 19% decline year-over-year. The Mazowieckie (267,000 sq m), Śląskie (228,000 sq m), and Łódzkie (152,000 sq m) regions saw the highest leasing volumes. Among the largest transactions were a 67,800 sq m lease by a 3PL company at 7R Park Gdańsk III, a 50,300 sq m renewal by a major retailer at P3 Łódź II, and a 38,400 sq m renewal by an e-commerce company at Accolade Funds Park Szczecin I. Asking rents in Q1 2025 ranged from EUR3.60 to EUR5.50 per sq m/month for big-box space in non-urban logistics hubs, with effective rates averaging 20–25% below headline rents.
Anna Głowacz, Head of Industrial & Logistics, AXI IMMO, explained: “The reversal of the previously dominant trend—where new leases led market activity—clearly illustrates a shift in operational strategy among tenants. Companies are more cautious. They’re not withdrawing from the market but are less inclined to relocate. In today’s environment, where uncertainty around costs, workforce availability, and supply chain efficiency is a factor, extending leases in proven locations has become a pragmatic, risk-averse choice.”
Supply: Developers are more selective
Poland’s total warehouse stock surpassed 35.3 million sq m at the end of Q1 2025 (+8% YoY), placing the country among Europe’s top logistics markets. Developers delivered 680,000 sq m of new space during the quarter (–20% YoY). The highest new supply was delivered in the Dolnośląskie region (319,000 sq m), followed by Śląskie (118,000 sq m) and Wielkopolskie (60,000 sq m). 1.4 million sq m is currently under construction – down 41% year-over-year. Most of this pipeline is concentrated in the Mazowieckie (368,000 sq m), Śląskie (270,000 sq m), and Łódzkie (253,000 sq m) regions. This restrained development approach had a modest effect on vacancy rates, which stood at 8.5% at the end of March (+30 bps YoY). The highest vacancy levels were recorded in Lubuskie (22.9%), Świętokrzyskie (17.2%), Dolnośląskie (11.6%), and Łódzkie (9.9%).
Investors cautiously returning to the market
Q1 2025 saw a clear rebound in investment activity. Transaction volume in the industrial sector reached EUR 202 million, up 47% year-over-year, accounting for roughly one-third of all commercial real estate deals. Investors again view industrial and logistics assets as stable and yielding predictable returns. Single-asset transactions dominated the market, but portfolio deals are expected to increase later in the year. Major Q1 2025 deals included the acquisition of Panattoni Park Tricity South II by Clarion, Prologis’s acquisition of P3 Park Grodzisk, and the sale of Panattoni Park Tricity East V to South Africa’s Fortress REIT.
Grzegorz Chmielak, Head of Capital Markets, AXI IMMO, commented: “We’re seeing continued momentum behind asset acquisitions between developers. This has become a more efficient path to portfolio expansion than launching new developments from the ground up. This strategy reflects operational pragmatism in a market with longer decision-making processes and limited financing activity. Western European and CEE investors remain active, while Asian capital continues to monitor the market, waiting to assess resilience against broader macroeconomic fluctuations.”
Renata Osiecka, Managing Partner, AXI IMMO, concluded: “Poland’s industrial market remains fundamentally stable and resilient, although tenant behaviour has become more measured. In an environment shaped by macroeconomic uncertainty, especially concerning tariffs, production costs, and global trade shifts, many occupiers opt to extend leases rather than pursue expansion. It reflects a growing need for operational predictability and flexibility. In response, developers are limiting new construction starts while raising delivered space’s technical and environmental standards. We’re observing a market that isn’t slowing down—but is becoming increasingly selective, strategic, and focused on long-term value creation.”
