The number of mortgage applicants in March broke almost every record, including those seen during the Safe 2% Mortgage programme and the era of near-zero interest rates, reaching the highest level in 18 years. There is no doubt that since mid-2025 we had already been seeing rising demand from borrowers, both among those buying new homes, as confirmed by strong housing sales in March 2026, and among those refinancing older mortgages amid cheaper borrowing costs. Mortgage demand was also supported by the large supply offered by developers and their strong sales pressure, packaged in attractive pricing offers.
However, given the cost of mortgage borrowing in March compared with previous years, the actual affordability of homes on credit, and the absence of any meaningful government-driven demand stimulus, there is no fundamental justification for such a surge in demand. In our view, what we are seeing here is an acceleration of clients’ decisions to submit mortgage applications already in March, taking advantage of the last opportunity to secure the relatively low mortgage rates available at the beginning of the month. In early April, the average cost of fixed-rate mortgages, which dominate the Polish mortgage market, rose by at least 50 basis points. At the same time, concerns about further interest rate hikes also emerged, all in reaction to the inflation shock triggered by the conflict in the Persian Gulf.
This is most likely a repeat of what happened in April 2022, when, against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine and rising interest rates, 53,000 people submitted mortgage applications, more than in any month during the Safe 2% Mortgage period. The reason at that time was a change in the rules for calculating the interest rate risk buffer. Back then, just as now, mortgage advisers were actively urging clients to file their applications under the old conditions. The following months of 2022, however, were marked by a drought, because anyone who wanted to apply had already done so in April.
The conclusion is simple: the coming months of 2026 may no longer deliver such surprising demand figures. What happens next will depend largely on the outcome of negotiations during the two-week ceasefire in the Persian Gulf.
