In Q1 2026, the Warsaw office market increasingly confirms the thesis of its ongoing polarisation. Differences between central and non-central zones are evident both in terms of the quality of supply and availability of office space, as well as developer activity. In practice, this means the market currently operates in two parallel realities governed by different supply and demand dynamics, according to a report published by the Research and Analysis Department of AXI IMMO, Poland’s largest advisory firm in the commercial real estate market, entitled “Office Market in Warsaw in Q1 2026.”
Vacancy rates: clear disparity between central and non-central locations
One of the most visible signs of polarisation is the availability of office space. At the end of Q1 2026, the average vacancy rate in Warsaw stood at 9.5%; however, this figure masks significant differences between individual city zones.
Emilia Trofimiuk, Research Manager, Research and Analysis Department, AXI IMMO, comments: “In central zones, the vacancy rate stood at 6.5%, while in non-central locations it reached 12.2%, representing a gap of nearly 6 percentage points. The highest levels of vacant space were recorded in Służewiec district (18.7%), the Żwirki i Wigury corridor (15.4%), and along the Al. Jerozolimskie corridor (12.0%)”.
In central locations, the market is facing a limited selection of offices, especially in the segment of large, contiguous floorplates. Low availability of space in the city centre translates into increased competition among tenants and upward pressure on rents in the most attractive projects.
Developer activity concentrated in the city centre
Market polarisation is also reflected in the structure of new supply and investment activity undertaken by developers. At the end of Q1 2026, approximately 120,000 sq m of office space was under construction in Warsaw, of which over 110,000 sq m was located in central zones, while only around 4,000 sq m was in non-central areas. In practice, this indicates an almost complete concentration of new supply in the city centre. At the same time, 120,000 sq m under construction represents a 46% year-on-year decrease in development activity.
Emilia Trofimiuk, AXI IMMO, explains: “There are no new developments in non-central zones, which confirms developers’ selective approach and the concentration of capital in locations with the highest take-up potential and prestige”.
This part of the city hosts the largest and most advanced office projects, such as AFI Tower (approx. 50,000 sq m), developed by AFI Europe as part of the Towarowa 22 complex in Wola district, scheduled for completion in 2028, Skyliner II by Karimpol near Rondo Daszyńskiego, as well as Upper One by Strabag Real Estate on Al. Jana Pawła II.
Emilia Trofimiuk, AXI IMMO, summarises: “These developments are characterised by their large scale, high standard, and concentration in the most prestigious locations, responding to demand from tenants seeking modern, representative office space. The situation outside the city centre is very different, where investment activity is clearly limited and focuses mainly on smaller projects, such as Puławska 533, as well as the repositioning of older office complexes in areas such as Służewiec district or the Al. Jerozolimskie corridor. As a result, the structure of ongoing investments confirms the emergence of a ‘two-speed’ market model, in which the city centre attracts capital and new developments, while non-central zones remain areas of limited development activity and increasing price competition”.
Two markets in one city
A comparison of data on vacancy rates, rental levels, and the activity of developers and tenants leads to the conclusion that the Warsaw office market is increasingly operating as a two-speed market. In the city centre, the segment of modern, prestigious developments is strengthening, characterised by limited availability of space for lease and rising rental levels. Outside the centre, higher vacancy rates prevail, where competition is more strongly based on pricing and flexible lease terms.
The ongoing polarisation means that both tenants and building owners must adapt their strategies to the realities of specific zones. Differences between central and non-central locations are no longer merely a matter of address – they increasingly determine the operating model of entire segments of the Warsaw office market.
