Brent Falls 7.6% on Iran Peace Hopes as Polish Manufacturing PMI Hits 50

Brent fell 7.6% as traders weighed the prospect of a peace deal with Iran. Poland’s manufacturing PMI reached 50, beating expectations of 49.4 and reaching its highest level since April 2025.

By Maciej Przygórzewski. The Polish original was published on 3 November 2026.

Markets were looking for a last-minute breakthrough before the US midterms. Expectations among analysts that a peace deal with Iran might be close contributed to a sharp fall in oil, while manufacturing surveys pointed to optimism across major Western economies.

Poland’s PMI reaches the neutral mark

Manufacturing purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) survey managers about business conditions. A reading of 50 marks the balance between positive and negative responses. Poland reached that level against expectations of 49.4, its best reading since April 2025 and the end of roughly 18 months below the threshold.

The eurozone came in above forecasts at 52.7, helped by a lower bar than a month earlier. The UK matched expectations at 52.8, with sentiment remaining upbeat despite the complications of the post-Brexit environment.

US surveys send mixed signals against forecasts

The US manufacturing PMI, released at 15:45 Polish time, came in at 54.9, well above the European readings but below the 56 expected. Fifteen minutes later, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index came in at 55.5, above the 54.6 forecast. The surveys use different panels of about 600 and 300 respondents respectively, so in some months one can signal improvement while the other points to deterioration.

Brent reaches its lowest level since 12 October

Traders priced in the possibility of a peace agreement in the war between Iran and the US and Israel. Brent had briefly topped $114 on Friday before falling below $104, its lowest since 12 October. Analysts saw the US midterms as a potential turning point. The polls suggested a decisive Democratic win, although it was unclear whether they underestimated Republicans, and some analysts had expected Trump to try to end another conflict before the vote.

The US calendar listed goods orders and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) at 16:00 Polish time. The US returned to standard time over the weekend, restoring the usual release times in Poland.