mBank economists see a 25-basis-point increase at Poland’s November rate meeting as more likely than a hold. In a Polish Press Agency survey, 18 of 19 economists expect rates to stay unchanged.
By the CEO Magazine editorial team. The Polish original was published on 3 November 2026.
mBank economists say October’s fall in inflation to 3.5% does not remove the risk that higher energy and fuel costs will feed into prices for other goods and services. A 25-basis-point increase would take the reference rate of Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP), Poland’s central bank, from 3.75% to 4%. The Monetary Policy Council will announce its decision on 4 November.
Inflation eased while service prices continued to rise quickly
According to a flash estimate from Statistics Poland, annual inflation fell to 3.5% in October from 4.1% in September. Prices fell 0.4% from the previous month. Annual inflation was at the upper edge of the tolerance band around the central bank’s 2.5% target.
mBank attributes much of the slowdown to measures that cushioned fuel prices. Its economists estimate that core inflation excluding food and energy slowed to around 3%, with detailed data due in mid-November. They also point to faster increases in service prices and persistently strong producer price growth.
The bank says data available before the meeting are consistent with third-quarter GDP growth of 3.5–4% year on year. It expects growth to slow over the coming quarters as some investments financed by Poland’s National Recovery and Resilience Plan wind down.
Why mBank sees a cost in waiting
Global prices for crude oil and petroleum products have risen since the council’s previous meeting. mBank also sees a risk that food and energy prices will rise faster in 2027. The bank says futures prices pointed to a possible increase of as much as 10–20% in electricity and gas prices. The impact on household bills will depend on decisions by Poland’s Energy Regulatory Office and the extent of government support.
mBank argues that waiting for clear evidence that businesses are passing higher costs on to customers could delay the council’s response until price increases are already widespread. Interest rates affect the economy with a lag. An earlier rise could curb demand and make it harder for businesses to raise prices in 2027, but it would also increase financing costs as investment is already expected to weaken.
Central bank forecast will indicate when inflation could return to target
mBank economists doubt the November forecast will show inflation clearly returning to around 2.5% in 2028. They acknowledge that the council could tolerate elevated inflation for longer and wait for evidence that higher energy and fuel costs are affecting other prices. In that scenario, an increase could be delayed until early 2027 or might never materialise.
