Brent Rebounds $6 After Iran Attacks as Dollar Strengthens and UK GDP Beats Forecasts

Brent crude has risen about $6 a barrel since dropping below $90 on Tuesday, as renewed attacks by Iran revive concerns about the Middle East conflict. The dollar is strengthening, UK growth has exceeded expectations, and Romania has kept interest rates at 6.5% despite rising inflation.

Market commentary by Maciej Przygórzewski, Chief Analyst at InternetowyKantor.pl. Polish original published on 13 November 2026 at 11:51 UTC.

Renewed attacks reverse oil’s decline

At the start of the week, a ceasefire followed by a gradual peace process was the prevailing expectation for the Middle East. Serious threats were exchanged midweek, and hostilities resumed on Thursday.

Iran attacked maritime targets, damaging at least two tankers. An early-warning radar in Bahrain was also attacked, while reports suggested the conflict could extend beyond the region, including possible strikes on US bases in Europe.

The US president said on Thursday that he had won the war. On Friday, reports emerged that a peace agreement was therefore considered unnecessary.

Markets have responded sharply. Brent was below $90 a barrel as recently as Tuesday, but the latest developments have halted the decline and lifted prices by $6 since then.

The dollar has also strengthened further against the euro, reaching its strongest level since the first half of 2025. That rise has come despite higher-than-expected US inflation.

UK annual GDP growth reaches 2.1%, above the 1.9% forecast

UK data released on Friday morning showed industrial production and manufacturing output performing slightly better than expected. The main focus for markets, however, was GDP, which grew 2.1% year on year in September against analysts’ forecast of 1.9%.

That was a positive surprise, although 2.1% growth still falls short of Britain’s ambitions. It nevertheless compares favourably with the euro area’s 1.3%, while the UK trade balance was weaker than expected.

Romania holds rates as inflation rises to 6.9%

The National Bank of Romania left interest rates unchanged at 6.5% on Thursday. August marked a year since the country’s VAT increase, and many analysts had expected inflation to return to more normal levels during 2026 as that jump dropped out of the annual comparison.

Inflation did fall to 6.2% in August, offering some encouragement. It then rose to 6.6% in September and 6.9% in October.

Romania may therefore have to raise rates, even though they are already by far the highest in the European Union. The currency showed no reaction; the leu’s exchange rate against the euro is administratively managed.

The commentary’s calendar for Friday, 13 November, lists no major macroeconomic releases.