Poland’s 10-year government bond yield rose to 6.34% as stronger-than-expected US inflation strengthened expectations of a December Federal Reserve rate increase. Polish bonds ended the week lower despite an initial boost from falling oil prices and little reaction to S&P’s decision to cut Poland’s rating outlook to negative.
Market commentary by Emil Szweda, Chief Analyst at Michael / Ström Dom Maklerski, a Polish brokerage. Polish original published on 13 November 2026 at 19:51 UTC.
Featured photograph: Emil Szweda.
US inflation reverses the week’s early gains
Investors largely shrugged off S&P’s outlook decision. Poland’s domestic bond market is dominated by Polish banks, which are already well aware of the budget position and political conditions.
A brief fall in Brent crude below $90 a barrel initially raised hopes of a positive week for bonds. That respite did not last: US inflation came in above expectations, with prices rising 0.4% month on month and core prices increasing 0.3%.
Investors treated the release as effectively sealing the case for a December US rate rise, weighing on both Polish bonds and the zloty. If the Fed raises rates while Poland’s Monetary Policy Council (RPP) again refrains from doing so, investors would have less incentive to buy Polish debt. Escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz further damaged sentiment on Friday, leaving the week’s overall bond market performance negative.
Yields remain within established trading ranges
In a broader view, recent bond market movements can be interpreted as a return towards the upper boundary of earlier yield ranges that had lasted between two and three and a half years across different markets. Those boundaries were tested in recent days but held. Yields subsequently rose, meaning bond prices fell.
This does not necessarily mean the sell-off must continue. For now, the price action reinforces the importance of these psychological market levels. Another test of the old range boundary would require stronger investor participation and more powerful catalysts.
Poland’s 10-year yield has traded between 6.1% and 6.5% for more than two months, slightly above the approximate 4.9%–6.1% range that had held for almost four years. The absence of a much stronger rise after September’s break above that range is itself encouraging. Recent attempts to return to the former range failed, albeit in an unfavourable market environment.
The rise in Poland’s 10-year yield to 6.34%, and in the equivalent US Treasury yield to 5.15%, still represents movement within trading ranges established over recent weeks. Until yields set new highs, investors can remain relatively comfortable with current levels. Polish 10-year yields in particular offer a substantial margin over the 3.75% reference rate of Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP), Poland’s central bank, and inflation of 3.5%.
Corporate issuers prepare new offers and early redemptions
Activity in Poland’s corporate bond market was limited. Bondholders in Kemberton, a Ghelamco group company, agreed to cut the notice period for early redemption of its bonds listed on Catalyst, Poland’s bond trading market, from 30 days to one day. That is a clear indication that a redemption is being planned.
Echo announced plans for another bond issue but did not disclose its terms. Vindexus announced a PLN 50 million issue, while Anwim plans an early redemption that would end its presence on Catalyst.
7R reported a successful public offering, raising almost PLN 88 million against a planned range of PLN 75 million–125 million. Polska Grupa Farmaceutyczna (PGF) and Best introduced new bond series to trading.
Trading in PGF’s issue may be limited because it was taken up by just two investors. Best’s first trades were below par, reflecting the secondary market’s growing reluctance to accept further reductions in bond interest margins.
