The first quarter of 2026 confirmed continued strong activity in Poland’s mortgage market, but it also brought new challenges affecting household financial decisions. Despite stable interest rates from the National Bank of Poland, tensions in the Middle East pushed up the cost of long-term financing and negatively affected creditworthiness.
This has not discouraged buyers, however. Poles continue to pursue housing needs and refinance previously taken loans.
BIK data confirm the positive market trend, with consecutive months bringing record volumes of mortgage loan enquiries. Refinancing accounts for a significant part of this growth, showing that consumers remain active while seeking to optimise financing costs amid rising market volatility.
Fixed or variable rate? The dilemma returns
The biggest surprise of the quarter was the change in the cost structure of mortgages. Although the Monetary Policy Council cut interest rates to 3.75%, commercial banks raised interest rates on fixed-rate loans in response to geopolitical risk in the Middle East.
At present, the average interest rate with a 20% down payment stands at 6.21% for fixed-rate loans and 5.61% for variable-rate loans. In practice, for a mortgage on an apartment worth PLN 800,000, the variable-rate instalment is around PLN 245 lower than the fixed-rate one.
“We are entering a period in which the mortgage market can no longer be assessed solely through domestic macroeconomic indicators. For the first time in several years, clients face a real dilemma: choosing between a theoretically safer but more expensive fixed rate and a cheaper variable rate, which carries risk amid global instability,” said Andrzej Łukaszewski, co-author of the Metrohouse and Credipass Barometer.
Creditworthiness under pressure
Rising mortgage costs have already affected creditworthiness. According to the Barometer, the average creditworthiness of a family of four, assuming monthly income of PLN 12,000, stood at PLN 782,000. This was broadly comparable to the previous quarter.
However, creditworthiness declined among couples and informal partners. Their average borrowing capacity fell to PLN 840,000 in Q1 2026 from PLN 906,000 in the previous quarter. Singles also saw a decline: in Q1 2026, they could obtain around PLN 521,000, compared with PLN 571,000 in Q4 2025.
New apartments are becoming more expensive
The decline in creditworthiness coincided with rising average asking prices for apartments offered by developers.
“New apartments in leading urban markets became more expensive in asking-price terms, most notably in Warsaw and Gdańsk. This was influenced not only by demand, but also by the price level of newly introduced offers,” said Andrzej Prajsnar, expert at RynekPierwotny.pl.
The change in Warsaw’s average price per square metre is particularly striking. In Q1 2026, new apartments in the capital rose by 6.6%, while the whole of 2025 had brought an increase of 4.4%. One reason was the introduction of very expensive apartments priced above PLN 24,000–25,000 per sq m, which pushed Warsaw’s average asking price close to the symbolic level of PLN 20,000 per sq m.
RynekPierwotny.pl experts note that apartments priced above PLN 20,000 per sq m also increased their share of supply at the beginning of the year in Kraków, Poznań and Gdańsk. These three markets also recorded clear quarterly increases in average developer prices, in contrast to Wrocław and especially Łódź, where prices remained stable.
Secondary market becomes more fragmented
The secondary housing market is becoming increasingly fragmented. Data from Poland’s largest cities no longer support a single diagnosis for the entire country.
While Gdańsk maintained upward momentum, gaining more than 5% quarter-on-quarter, other major cities, including Warsaw and Kraków, recorded clear price corrections. In Warsaw, the average transaction price reached PLN 15,397 per sq m, suggesting that the market may be approaching the financial limit of average buyers.
As a result, the time needed to find a buyer is increasing. The average listing exposure time in Warsaw now exceeds four months, forcing sellers to show greater flexibility in negotiations.
In Q1 2026, buyers were primarily looking for functionality. Two- and three-room apartments of up to 65 sq m attracted the strongest interest. In Warsaw, the PLN 1 million threshold became increasingly visible. This amount is no longer reserved only for the premium segment, but is becoming the price of a standard family apartment.
Forecasts for the coming months suggest a sideways trend, with possible increases in locations offering the best infrastructure.
“We are dealing with a market of conscious buyers who, before making a decision, carefully analyse not only the price per square metre, but also long-term maintenance costs and the potential for property value growth over time,” said Marcin Jańczuk from Metrohouse, co-author of the Metrohouse and Credipass Barometer.
