Interest rates in Poland have remained unchanged. As forecasted in the last NBP conference, they are likely to stay in “stand-by” mode until the next inflation projection (in March next year).
Global uncertainty, as well as local (political and fiscal), is still “in force” and has not decreased since the last meeting. The outlook for winding down of protective measures by the future government remains an open question, including the return of VAT on food or the “realization” of energy prices in the middle of next year.
NBP also notes a decrease in raw material prices, a rebuilding of the supply chain, and a global economic slowdown. Among local deflationary factors, NBP emphasizes the strengthening of the zloty, which is consistent with the fundamentals of the Polish economy.
In an environment of accelerating economy due to private consumption, solid investment activity and uncertainty regarding fiscal and regulatory issues, the Monetary Policy Council (RPP) will likely proceed with greater caution when assessing inflation prospects in Poland. Therefore, it is also cautious regarding potential interest rate cuts in the coming year.
Szymon Gil, Securities Broker, Michael / Ström Brokerage House
