Strong demand growth, a record surge in mortgage interest, and a clear contrast between shrinking developer supply and a gradually recovering secondary market – this is how the beginning of the year can be summarized. According to Otodom experts, recent months have been marked by a market that is “revived, but not yet overheated,” with buyers navigating growing geopolitical uncertainty and diverging prices across cities.
Financing boom and geopolitical pressure
As noted by Waldemar Rogowski, Chief Analyst at BIK Group and Director of the Institute of Corporate Finance and Investment at SGH, the first quarter of 2026 brought exceptionally strong growth in the mortgage market. The scale is evident in the 144,000 individuals applying for housing loans during this period – up 47% compared to 2025 and as much as 83% compared to 2024.
According to estimates, around 70,000 mortgages were granted over the past three months, with a total value of PLN 31 billion. Notably, 56% of this amount was concentrated in the seven largest metropolitan areas.
This record demand, with an average requested loan amount reaching PLN 506,000, was driven primarily by continued interest rate cuts by the National Bank of Poland (down to 3.75% for the reference rate in March) and strong wage growth of 8–10% year-on-year. At the same time, geopolitical uncertainty related to the conflict in the Middle East and rising commodity prices accelerated purchasing decisions.
Concerns about higher inflation and the potential return of rate hikes also contributed to a high share of refinancing activity (around 30% by volume and 25% by value). Among newly issued mortgages, 45% financed purchases on the secondary market, while 40% went to newly built properties.
Fewer new residential projects
On the supply side, sentiment among developers was markedly different. According to Otodom data, developers remained cautious in the first quarter. Only 8,800 units were launched for sale across the seven largest markets – the lowest quarterly result in three years, down 23% quarter-on-quarter and 29% year-on-year.
The sharpest declines were recorded in Wrocław and Katowice (-48% and -44% respectively), followed by Łódź (-35%) and Poznań (-33%). In Warsaw, new supply dropped by 24%, while Kraków saw a 19% decline. The smallest reduction was observed in the Tricity area (-11%).
At the same time, sales remained relatively strong. Around 12,700 units were sold in Q1 2026 – 6% fewer than in Q4 2025 (preliminary data), but 31% higher year-on-year. As demand exceeded new supply for the second consecutive quarter, total developer inventory declined for the first time in nine quarters, reaching 58,900 units at the end of March – down 5% compared to the end of 2025.
“Surprisingly strong March sales were not enough to match the excellent results of Q1 2025, but they did shift sentiment on both sides of the developer market. Combined with declining supply, this has made outlooks for the housing market in major Polish cities more optimistic than a quarter ago,” said Katarzyna Kuniewicz, Head of Market Research at Otodom.
Secondary market regains momentum
The situation in the secondary housing market has evolved differently. This segment entered a phase of moderate recovery, with supply gradually increasing. By the end of March, the number of active listings across the seven largest markets reached 41,600 – up 3% compared to January.
The strongest growth in listings was recorded in Tricity and Poznań (+6%), followed by Warsaw (+4%). Supply grew more slowly in Łódź and Wrocław (+3%), and in Kraków (+2%). Katowice was the only city to record a slight decline (-1%).
Demand varied significantly across regions. Poznań (+16% year-on-year) and Wrocław (+11%) led in buyer interest, while Kraków and Katowice saw declines in inquiries (-5% and -4% respectively).
“The increased activity in this segment is also driven by concerns about the future. According to a March 2026 Otodom and Kantar survey, as many as 59% of respondents expect further price increases, rising to 62% among the most active buyers. Combined with worsening macroeconomic indicators, such as rising CPI inflation and WIBOR 6M rates, this has encouraged buyers to close transactions more quickly,” explained Paweł Jarząbek, Market Research and Analysis Manager at Otodom.
Price divergence
A comparison of both markets reveals clear differences in price dynamics. According to Otodom, average prices of new developer units increased by 1.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q1. On an annual basis, prices rose by 6.4% – nearly twice the current inflation rate. Tricity led the growth, with primary market prices jumping by as much as 18% year-on-year.
Meanwhile, prices on the secondary market remained stable throughout the quarter, with an average annual increase of around 2% – below inflation. This translates into real price stabilization, or even a slight correction. Exceptions include Tricity (+5.2% year-on-year) and Poznań (+4.9%), while Wrocław recorded only a marginal increase (+0.3%), and Łódź and Katowice saw near-zero growth.
What about Q2?
Despite geopolitical turbulence, the outlook for the coming months remains positive. The upward trend is expected to continue in Q2 2026. As Waldemar Rogowski emphasizes, key factors supporting borrowing capacity – favorable cost of money (stable interest rates) and real income growth – should continue to sustain high buyer activity.
Mortgage availability remains strong, which is likely to support optimistic sentiment among both buyers and sellers in both the primary and secondary housing markets.
