The average price per square metre has recently started to mislead more than inform. The average is highly sensitive to the structure of the offer and can be relatively easily pushed up by expensive units. Experts from RynekPierwotny.pl point out that the median is a much better measure of the “typical” apartment price.
“Changes in the average price per square metre depend mainly on shifts in the price structure of the offer. When a large pool of apartments significantly more expensive than the market average enters the market, the indicator rises,” explains Marek Wielgo, an expert at RynekPierwotny.pl.
An average that scares more than actual prices
On paper, the situation looks rather alarming. According to BIG DATA from RynekPierwotny.pl, in April the average price per square metre of new apartments in Warsaw reached PLN 20,000. But when one looks inside this figure, the picture of the market becomes less dramatic. The median — the price exactly in the middle of the range — was PLN 17,600. That is a difference of as much as 13%.
A similar mechanism can also be seen in other major cities. In Kraków, the average price is PLN 17,100 per sqm, while the median is PLN 16,000. In Wrocław, the figures are PLN 15,300 and PLN 14,300, respectively, and in Poznań PLN 14,300 and PLN 13,200.
Another pattern is also visible: the more top-end apartments there are in a given market, the wider the gap between the average and the median. It is no coincidence that Warsaw leads in this respect. This is a market where prices of the most expensive apartments now reach more than PLN 80,000 per sqm.
At the other end of the scale is Łódź. There, the difference between the average and the median is symbolic, while the most expensive apartments cost around PLN 36,000 per sqm. The luxury segment exists, but it does not have the same statistical impact as in the capital.
This clearly shows that the larger the share of premium apartments, the more the average and the median diverge — and the more carefully headline figures should be interpreted.
The luxury tail pulls the average upwards
This discrepancy does not come from nowhere. The beginning of the year brought a real wave of top-priced developments in Warsaw. In January, apartments in Liberty Tower entered the market with prices reaching PLN 45,000 per sqm. Just a month later, even more expensive projects appeared. In the Murano development by Profbud, prices reached PLN 54,000 per sqm, while in a luxury project in Wola, developed by Monting Development, prices of the most expensive apartments reached as much as PLN 80,400 per sqm.
This is, of course, the margin of the market. But it is a margin capable of setting the statistics. In practice, the average price is often driven up by very expensive premium apartments that appear in developers’ offers. The average therefore does not mean that all apartments are becoming more expensive. It simply indicates that the mix is changing — and the larger the premium segment, the higher the result.
What the average shows when broken down by segment
This phenomenon becomes clear when the average is calculated separately for individual market segments. In that case, even this measure provides a better picture of the market. In the popular segment, professionally referred to as economy and economy plus, the average price of apartments on offer has remained at around PLN 17,000 per sqm for two years, showing no increase. This is also the segment with the richest offer and the one most often chosen by consumers.
The situation is different in the upper-end segment, which RynekPierwotny.pl experts divide into upper-middle and premium. The former includes projects for wealthy buyers, often investors, in very good locations, with prices exceeding PLN 25,000 per sqm. The latter are top-tier projects, of which only a handful exist. They are uncompromising in terms of location, architecture, large apartment sizes and luxury. They are chosen by the wealthiest Poles and foreign buyers, with prices starting at PLN 50,000 per sqm and often reaching PLN 60,000 or more.
“Average prices of upper-end apartments in Warsaw have risen by 37% over the past two years, from an average of PLN 31,000 per sqm to PLN 42,000. This is the result of several top-tier projects such as Szara 10A, Rozbrat 44, Chłodna 35 and Villa Bogoria, where the average apartment costs from PLN 6 million upwards. This is an offer for the most uncompromising, but also the wealthiest clients. It used to be a rarity on the capital’s market; today, we are seeing a real wave of such projects. It is not height or a central location that determines their positioning. It is the unique, undisturbed and intimate vibe of the entire project, which can convince not only a Polish multimillionaire, but also a buyer from London, Berlin or Paris,” explains Jan Dziekoński, Chief Economist at RynekPierwotny.pl.
When “normal” apartments return to the market
This year, the average price per square metre in Warsaw has already increased by around 8%. The pace of price growth in the first months of 2026 was higher than in the previous two years. At first glance, it might have seemed that the market was accelerating and moving to a new price level.
But this is only part of the truth. In May, the situation began to reverse. A large number of more moderately priced apartments entered the Warsaw market. More than 100 units in the Głębocka Vita development and over 700 apartments in the next stages of Bulwary Praskie are examples of supply that does not belong to the premium segment.
The result? The average price per square metre, instead of continuing to rise, may fall slightly to around PLN 19,900. Not because developers have started cutting prices, but because the structure of the offer has changed.
The median is a calmer and more reliable reference point
The problem with the average is that it puts completely different worlds into one basket: luxury apartments and homes often bought with a mortgage. The result is a figure that looks impressive, but does not always accurately describe reality.
RynekPierwotny.pl experts stress that the median works differently. It cuts off extremes and shows the core of the market — the point where supply meets the real purchasing power of buyers. And this core, as the data shows, is much less overheated than the headlines suggest.
“The average price per square metre is a useful indicator, but mainly for observing trends and changes in the developers’ offer. However, if we want to answer the question of how much an apartment really costs for the average buyer, it is better to look at the median. It shows the market not as it appears in statistics, but as it actually is,” comments Marek Wielgo.
