Poland’s economy maintained solid growth momentum at the beginning of 2026. According to preliminary data from Statistics Poland, non-seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 3.5% year on year in the first quarter, slightly above the earlier flash estimate. Growth was still driven mainly by domestic demand and consumption, but the data also point to weaker investment dynamics and continued pressure in the construction sector.
Poland’s GDP grew by 3.5% in Q1 2026. Consumption still supports the economy, while investment momentum weakens
The preliminary estimate from Statistics Poland confirms that the Polish economy maintained solid growth at the beginning of 2026. The structure of the data shows, however, that domestic demand and consumption remained the main drivers, while investment growth was much weaker than at the end of 2025.
The economy is still growing, but the structure of growth is less clear-cut
Statistics Poland’s data point to continued positive growth in the Polish economy, while also showing a shift in the composition of GDP. In the first quarter of 2026, the main driver of growth was domestic demand, which increased by 3.7% year on year in real terms. This remains a solid result, although it is lower than the 4.6% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Total consumption rose by 3.9% year on year. Household consumption increased by 3.3%, while public consumption rose by 6.0%. This means that private consumption continues to be one of the key pillars of growth, although it is no longer accelerating as strongly as in some previous quarters.
Investment was the weaker part of the report. Gross fixed capital formation increased by 2.4% year on year, compared with 6.6% in the fourth quarter of 2025. The investment rate, defined as the ratio of gross fixed capital formation to GDP at current prices, fell to 12.9% from 13.2% a year earlier.
Annual GDP growth: quarterly trend
In annual terms, non-seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 3.5%, which was slightly higher than in the first quarter of 2025, when growth reached 3.2%. In previous quarters, the economy expanded within a range of 3.3% to 4.1% year on year. The strongest reading in the period shown came in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Seasonally adjusted data show a similar picture. GDP calculated using this methodology was 3.5% higher year on year in the first quarter of 2026. Quarter on quarter, GDP increased by 0.6%, which was lower than in the previous three quarters of 2025 but still positive.
What drove GDP growth? Domestic demand added 3.5 percentage points
In terms of contribution to GDP growth, domestic demand remained the most important component. Its contribution to economic growth amounted to 3.5 percentage points. Total consumption added 3.2 percentage points, of which 2.0 percentage points came from household consumption and 1.2 percentage points from public consumption.
The contribution of gross accumulation was positive but limited, at 0.3 percentage point. The same contribution came from investment demand. Changes in inventories were neutral, as was net export. In practice, this means that foreign trade neither supported nor reduced GDP growth in the first quarter of 2026.
| Category | Y/y change | Contribution to GDP | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross domestic product | +3.5% | +3.5 pp | Real GDP growth in Q1 2026. |
| Domestic demand | +3.7% | +3.5 pp | The main driver of economic growth. |
| Total consumption | +3.9% | +3.2 pp | The largest positive contribution on the demand side. |
| Household consumption | +3.3% | +2.0 pp | Private consumption continued to support growth. |
| Public consumption | +6.0% | +1.2 pp | Higher growth than in private consumption. |
| Gross accumulation | +2.7% | +0.3 pp | Positive but limited contribution to GDP. |
| Gross fixed capital formation | +2.4% | +0.3 pp | Clear slowdown compared with Q4 2025. |
| Net export | — | 0.0 pp | Neutral impact on GDP growth. |
Sectors of the economy: trade and industry above average, construction under pressure
Gross value added in the national economy increased by 3.3% year on year in the first quarter of 2026. Faster-than-average growth was recorded in trade and repair of motor vehicles, industry, and the broad public-sector category covering public administration, defence, education, health care and social work.
The weakest figures were recorded in construction and financial and insurance activities. Gross value added in construction fell by 4.5% year on year, while financial and insurance activities declined by 3.4%. This indicates that GDP growth was not evenly distributed across the main sectors of the economy.
| Sector / category | Y/y change | Q/q change, seasonally adjusted | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross value added, total | +3.3% | +0.6% | The economy maintained positive momentum. |
| Industry | +4.1% | –2.0% | Good annual result, but weak quarterly reading. |
| Construction | –4.5% | –2.1% | The weakest part of the sectoral data. |
| Trade and repair of motor vehicles | +4.7% | –0.2% | Strong annual growth, slight quarterly decline. |
| Transport and storage | +3.0% | +0.7% | Moderate positive result. |
| Public administration, education, health care and social work | +4.5% | +1.0% | One of the stronger components of growth. |
| Financial and insurance activities | –3.4% | –0.6% | The sector reduced the overall gross value added result. |
| Other market services | +4.0% | not shown in short table | Positive contribution from services. |
Quarter-on-quarter growth was positive but moderate
After seasonal adjustment, GDP increased by 0.6% compared with the fourth quarter of 2025. This means that the economy continued to grow, although at a slower pace than in several earlier quarters. Gross value added also increased by 0.6% quarter on quarter.
Demand-side quarterly data are mixed. Domestic demand rose by 0.1%, total consumption by 0.3%, and household consumption by 0.2%. Gross accumulation increased by 1.2%, while gross fixed capital formation rose by 0.3%. This confirms that investment did not collapse, but its current pace remains limited.
What do these figures mean for companies and the market?
From a business perspective, the GDP data can be read as moderately positive. The economy is growing at a pace above 3% year on year, and domestic demand remains positive. For consumer-facing companies, stable household consumption is important, although the lack of clear acceleration may limit the scope for rapid sales growth.
The investment side suggests more caution. The weaker growth of gross fixed capital formation may mean that some companies are still postponing development decisions or implementing them on a smaller scale. In this environment, financing costs, regulatory predictability and the pace of public and EU-funded investment remain particularly important.
For economic policy, the data are mixed. On the one hand, GDP growth remains solid. On the other hand, the composition of growth points to a strong role for consumption and a weaker investment impulse. If investment does not accelerate in the coming quarters, maintaining a higher growth rate may require continued support from services, industry and stable domestic demand.
Key figures from Statistics Poland’s report
| Indicator | Q1 2026 | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| GDP, not seasonally adjusted | +3.5% y/y | Main GDP growth measure in the Statistics Poland release. |
| GDP, seasonally adjusted | +0.6% q/q | Positive growth compared with Q4 2025. |
| Domestic demand | +3.7% y/y | The main driver of GDP growth. |
| Household consumption | +3.3% y/y | Stable support from consumers. |
| Public consumption | +6.0% y/y | Strong growth in the public component. |
| Gross fixed capital formation | +2.4% y/y | Clearly slower than in Q4 2025. |
| Investment rate | 12.9% | Lower than 13.2% a year earlier. |
| Net export | 0.0 pp | Neutral impact on GDP growth. |
