Warsaw entered the second quarter of 2026 with a mixed economic picture. The city remained one of Poland’s strongest business centres, with rising wages, a growing number of registered companies and higher retail and wholesale sales than a year earlier. At the same time, the labour market showed signs of cooling: average employment in the enterprise sector declined year on year, registered unemployment increased, and the number of people per job offer rose.
The data from the Statistical Office in Warsaw suggest that the capital is not facing a broad economic downturn, but rather a more uneven phase of the cycle. Consumption and business activity remain relatively solid, industry is still expanding, while construction and parts of the housing market are clearly weaker than in 2025.
Labour market: employment falls while unemployment rises
Average employment in Warsaw’s enterprise sector stood at 1.1101 million people in April 2026. This was 0.06% lower than in March and 0.5% lower than in April 2025. In absolute terms, employment was down by around 5,100 jobs year on year.
The decline was not evenly distributed across sectors. Compared with April 2025, employment fell most visibly in accommodation and food services, real estate services, transport and storage, administrative and support activities, and trade. At the same time, employment increased in construction and professional, scientific and technical activities, while information and communication and industry recorded slight gains.
This indicates that Warsaw’s labour market is still relatively strong, but the balance of demand is changing. Sectors linked to business services and higher-value activities remain more resilient, while trade, hospitality and support services are under more pressure.
Registered unemployment also increased. At the end of April 2026, Warsaw had 22,304 registered unemployed people, up 4.8% month on month and 10.6% year on year. The registered unemployment rate remained low by national standards, at 1.6%, but it was slightly higher than a year earlier, when it stood at 1.5%.
The number of job offers submitted to labour offices reached 1,476 in April. At the end of the month, there were 19 registered unemployed people per one job offer, compared with 17 a month earlier. This is still better than the Mazowieckie regional average of 27 people per offer, but the change confirms that the market has become less favourable for jobseekers.
Wages: still rising, but April brought a monthly correction
Average gross monthly wages in Warsaw’s enterprise sector reached PLN 11,786.67 in April 2026. This was 6.0% higher than a year earlier, but 5.0% lower than in March.
The monthly decline likely reflects the fading of March bonus effects in some sectors. Wage decreases compared with March were recorded in real estate services, professional, scientific and technical activities, accommodation and food services, information and communication, industry, trade, and administrative support services. By contrast, wages increased strongly in construction and moderately in transport and storage.
The wage hierarchy remains clear. In April 2026, wages in information and communication were 41.9% above the city’s enterprise-sector average. Professional, scientific and technical activities were almost 30% above average, while construction was 18.5% above average. At the other end of the scale, accommodation and food services were 34.7% below average, and administrative and support services were 32.5% below average.
This reinforces Warsaw’s dual labour-market structure. The city continues to reward knowledge-intensive and technology-oriented work, but lower-paid service sectors remain far below the capital’s average wage level.
Construction: the weakest part of the picture
Construction was one of the clearest weak spots in April. Sold production of construction amounted to PLN 5.512 billion at current prices, down 4.1% from March and 16.2% year on year.
In January–April 2026, sold construction production reached PLN 20.816 billion, which was 11.1% lower than in the same period of 2025. Construction and assembly production also declined year on year. In April it stood at PLN 1.339 billion, down 7.0% from April 2025, despite a 7.4% monthly increase.
The data suggest that the construction sector is experiencing a demand and investment slowdown rather than a complete collapse. Building construction itself increased slightly year on year, but specialist construction works and civil engineering recorded declines. Labour productivity in construction also weakened, falling 17.7% year on year in April.
For Warsaw, this matters beyond the construction sector itself. Weaker construction activity can affect housing supply, infrastructure delivery, subcontractors, materials suppliers and parts of the local labour market.
Retail and wholesale trade: consumption remains supportive
Retail sales in Warsaw were 2.9% higher year on year in April 2026, although they fell 0.4% compared with March. For the first four months of the year, retail sales were 5.0% higher than in the same period of 2025.
The annual increase was driven mainly by fuel sales, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics and orthopaedic equipment, as well as some non-specialised retail categories. At the same time, sales fell year on year in food, beverages and tobacco, motor vehicles, clothing and footwear, furniture, electronics and household appliances.
This structure suggests that nominal retail growth is not uniformly strong. Part of the increase may be linked to prices or specific categories, while discretionary consumer spending appears more selective.
Wholesale trade looked stronger on an annual basis. Wholesale sales in trade enterprises were 10.3% higher year on year, while wholesale enterprises recorded a 17.2% annual increase. However, both categories fell sharply compared with March, which points to monthly volatility rather than a simple upward trend.
Industry: modest April growth, stronger year-to-date performance
Industrial sold production in Warsaw reached PLN 15.504 billion in April 2026 at current prices. In constant prices, it was 1.7% higher than in April 2025. Manufacturing output rose by 1.2% year on year.
The year-to-date picture was stronger. In January–April 2026, sold industrial production amounted to PLN 64.489 billion, up 6.3% year on year in constant prices. Manufacturing increased by 6.7% over the same period.
The strongest growth was recorded in several manufacturing branches, including textiles, beverages, furniture, computers and electronic products, machinery and equipment, metals, food products and pharmaceuticals. Declines were seen in wood products, coke and refined petroleum products, electrical equipment, clothing, non-metallic mineral products and paper products.
This shows that Warsaw’s industrial base, although less dominant than services in the city’s economic structure, remains an important source of growth. However, the April reading was weaker than the cumulative January–April result, suggesting some moderation after a stronger start to the year.
Housing market: more completions in April, but fewer since January
Warsaw recorded 1,175 dwellings completed in April 2026, 7.2% more than a year earlier. At first glance, this looks positive. However, the cumulative data tell a different story.
In January–April 2026, 3,795 dwellings were completed in Warsaw, which was 28.5% fewer than in the same period of 2025. The decline was concentrated mainly in dwellings built for sale or rent, where completions fell by 31.0%.
The number of dwellings whose construction began also fell sharply. In January–April 2026, construction started on 3,586 dwellings, down 28.8% year on year. At the same time, permits and construction notifications were almost unchanged, at 3,802 dwellings, or 0.1% more than a year earlier.
This is an important distinction. Developers and investors still have a pipeline of formally approved projects, but fewer projects are being started and fewer units are being completed. This may reflect weaker sales expectations, financing conditions, construction costs or strategic delays in launching new investments.
Business activity: Warsaw keeps attracting companies
At the end of April 2026, 605,987 entities were registered in Warsaw in the REGON register. This represented 55.1% of all registered entities in Mazowieckie province. The number increased by 1,539 month on month and by 21,485 year on year, or 3.7%.
The city had 198,490 commercial companies, up 4.1% year on year, and 332,534 sole proprietors, up 3.8% year on year. The largest shares of registered entities were in professional, scientific and technical activities, trade and vehicle repair, and information and communication.
The strongest annual increases in the number of entities were recorded in administrative and support services, energy supply, health and social work, education, construction, information and communication, and accommodation and food services. Trade was one of the few sectors where the number of entities declined year on year.
In April, 3,524 new entities were registered, while 1,921 were removed from the register. The net balance remained positive, although new registrations were lower than in March. This suggests that Warsaw remains a major centre of entrepreneurship, but business formation is not immune to short-term fluctuations.
Comparative perspective: Warsaw remains strong, but not immune
Compared with other large Polish cities, Warsaw still stands out for the scale of its labour market and wage levels. Its enterprise-sector employment of 1.110 million was by far the highest among the cities listed in the report. The average gross wage of PLN 11,786.67 was also among the highest.
At the same time, Warsaw’s registered unemployment rate of 1.6% was very low, but not unique. Some other large cities also recorded low unemployment. The difference is that Warsaw combines low unemployment with very high employment, high wages and a large business base.
The weakness lies mostly in construction and housing starts. While the capital remains economically strong, the decline in construction activity and lower cumulative housing completions suggest a cooling investment cycle. For a city with strong demographic and business demand, this may become a supply-side problem if the trend continues.
