Agricultural purchase prices in Poland fell by 16.2% year on year in May 2026, marking a sharp reversal from the inflationary peak seen a year earlier. The steepest declines affected pig livestock, milk and oats, while modest monthly increases in wheat, rye and maize suggest that parts of the grain market may be starting to stabilise.
Agricultural purchase prices plunge 16.2%. A deep decline follows the inflation peak
In May 2026, purchase prices of key agricultural products were 16.2% lower than a year earlier and 0.9% below their April level. One year after agricultural inflation reached its peak, the market has entered a period of deep deflation, with the sharpest declines recorded in pig livestock, milk and oats.
The latest purchase-price data from Statistics Poland show the agricultural market completing a full price cycle. Following deep deflation at the beginning of 2024, a sharp rebound and an inflationary peak in spring 2025, when prices were rising at an annual pace of up to 15%, the market has once again moved into negative territory. In May 2026, the annual rate reached minus 16.2%, close to the trough recorded two years ago.
A full cycle: from deflation through the peak and back to deflation
The annual change in purchase prices traces an almost symmetrical arc. As recently as May 2025, prices were 15% higher than a year earlier; twelve months later, they are 16.2% lower. This sharp reversal is largely the result of a high comparison base, as current declines are measured against last year’s peak.
On a monthly basis, the picture is less dramatic. After a series of declines at the turn of the year, with the sharpest fall in January at minus 4.5%, the pace of deflation slowed. Prices even rose slightly in March and April before declining again by 0.9% in May. This suggests that the most acute phase of the correction may already have passed, although the annual rate remains strongly negative because of the base effect.
Products: pork, milk and oats see the sharpest declines
The scale of the declines varies significantly across products. On an annual basis, pig livestock prices fell the most, down 23.5%, followed closely by oats, down 23.4%, and cow’s milk, down 20.0%. Among cereals, the declines were more moderate: wheat prices fell by 12.3%, rye by 13.2%, while maize recorded the mildest decrease, at 6.4%.
On a monthly basis, trends are more mixed. Bread grains became more expensive, including wheat, up 2.1%, rye, up 2.5%, and maize, up 4.9%, alongside poultry livestock, up 2.3%. At the same time, barley, potatoes, beef cattle and pig livestock became cheaper, highlighting a widening divergence between the cereals market and the meat market.
| Product | Purchase price | Change m/m | Change y/y |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat (PLN/dt) | 78.70 | +2.1% | −12.3% |
| Rye (PLN/dt) | 63.60 | +2.5% | −13.2% |
| Barley (PLN/dt) | 73.43 | −4.7% | −12.0% |
| Triticale (PLN/dt) | 70.91 | +2.0% | −15.1% |
| Oats (PLN/dt) | 55.13 | +0.3% | −23.4% |
| Maize (PLN/dt) | 83.27 | +4.9% | −6.4% |
| Potatoes (PLN/dt) | 116.90 | −2.8% | −9.5% |
| Beef cattle (PLN/kg) | 14.04 | −5.9% | −6.9% |
| Pig livestock (PLN/kg) | 5.49 | −6.7% | −23.5% |
| Poultry livestock (PLN/kg) | 5.85 | +2.3% | −9.3% |
| Milk (PLN/hl) | 180.42 | −1.2% | −20.0% |
Milk: regional differences in purchase prices
The deepest annual price declines affected the milk market, which also continues to show clear regional disparities. The highest purchase prices were recorded in the Podlaskie region, at PLN 195.5 per hectolitre, Poland’s main dairy-producing area, as well as in the Podkarpackie and Lubelskie regions. The lowest prices were paid in the Łódzkie region, at PLN 167.4 per hectolitre, and in Pomorskie.
Market takeaway: the 16.2% decline in agricultural purchase prices is primarily the result of a high comparison base following last year’s peak. For farmers, particularly those in the pig and dairy sectors, this means a clear deterioration in profitability compared with the record year of 2025, even though retail food prices respond with a delay.
What this means
Key takeaways
- A full price-cycle reversal. The annual rate moved from +15% in May 2025 to −16.2% in May 2026, largely due to the high comparison base.
- Meat and milk are falling the fastest. Pig livestock, down 23.5%, oats, down 23.4%, and milk, down 20.0%, are leading the declines, with livestock producers facing the greatest pressure.
- Bread grains are stabilising. Wheat and rye rose month on month, suggesting that the cereals market may be closer to its trough than the meat market.
- The monthly pace is slowing. Following sharp declines at the turn of the year, month-on-month changes are now limited, indicating that the most severe phase of the correction has probably passed.
- The dairy sector remains under pressure, with regional differences. Despite a 20% annual decline, milk purchase prices differ by almost PLN 30 per hectolitre between regions.
For processors and retailers, lower agricultural raw-material prices mean lower procurement costs, which may gradually ease pressure on food prices. For farmers, the key question will be whether the stabilisation of monthly changes translates into an end to annual declines in the second half of the year. This will determine the profitability of the next season, particularly in animal production.
Data for May 2026. Purchase prices excluding VAT for key agricultural products include wheat and rye grain, slaughter livestock including beef cattle, pigs and poultry, as well as cow’s milk. The data are calculated on the basis of transactions carried out by legal persons and organisational units, excluding natural persons. Source: Statistics Poland, “Agricultural Product Prices in May 2026”, Prices and Services Department. Own analysis based on Statistics Poland data.
