Poland’s economy entered the summer with business sentiment broadly stable but increasingly cautious. Statistics Poland’s June survey shows that companies are still assessing current conditions relatively calmly, yet expectations for the next three months have weakened across much of the economy. Financial services remain the strongest sector, while accommodation and food services are benefiting from seasonal demand. Manufacturing, however, continues to lag behind, and employers are taking a more restrained approach to hiring, investment and wage decisions.
June business sentiment: companies grow more cautious about the second half of the year
Poland’s June business confidence survey points to an economy that remains broadly stable, but where corporate expectations are clearly weakening. Assessments of current conditions are steady across most sectors, while outlooks for the next three months have deteriorated more visibly. Companies are not yet signalling a sharp slowdown, but they are becoming more cautious about investment, hiring and costs.
Statistics Poland’s monthly business confidence survey does not point to a single, clear direction for the economy. Sentiment weakened most noticeably in financial and insurance activities, while accommodation and food services posted the strongest improvement. Most other industries remain close to neutral territory or continue to report moderately negative assessments, creating a picture of an economy in a cautious wait-and-see mode.
Finance remains the leader, while manufacturing stays the weakest link
The gap between sectors remains substantial. The highest overall business climate indicator was recorded in financial and insurance activities, at plus 24.4 points. Accommodation and food services followed closely, with a reading of plus 19.7 points.
At the other end of the scale was manufacturing, where the indicator fell to minus 6.0 points. It is also worth noting that even the financial sector, despite its clearly positive result, remains below its long-term average of plus 25.4 points. This suggests that the strong optimism seen in the sector is gradually losing momentum.
Four of the eight sectors surveyed recorded indicators below zero: manufacturing, retail trade, construction, and transportation and warehousing. Wholesale trade remained positive, but only marginally. This pattern does not yet suggest a broad collapse in business sentiment, but it does show a lack of a strong catalyst capable of driving a wider recovery.
Hospitality gains ground as finance and retail lose momentum
Monthly changes in the indicator divided the sectors quite clearly. Accommodation and food services recorded the strongest improvement, with the index rising by 5.0 points. The increase may be linked to the start of the holiday season and improving demand expectations for the coming months.
Information and communication, construction, and transportation and warehousing also posted gains. By contrast, sentiment deteriorated in financial and insurance activities, manufacturing, and retail trade. The steepest monthly decline was recorded in finance, where the indicator fell by 2.2 points.
Eight sectors, four reference points
| Sector | Year ago | May 2026 | June 2026 | Long-term avg. | m/m change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financial and insurance activities | 25.3 | 26.6 | 24.4 | 25.4 | −2.2 |
| Accommodation and food services | 17.3 | 14.7 | 19.7 | −0.4 | +5.0 |
| Information and communication | 9.2 | 8.1 | 10.2 | 17.2 | +2.1 |
| Wholesale trade | −0.5 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 2.4 | −1.4 |
| Transportation and warehousing | −0.8 | −1.1 | −0.6 | −0.9 | +0.5 |
| Construction | −4.7 | −1.3 | −0.7 | −3.6 | +0.6 |
| Retail trade | −0.9 | 0.0 | −1.6 | −4.1 | −1.6 |
| Manufacturing | −7.7 | −4.1 | −6.0 | 0.4 | −1.9 |
Compared with June last year, the most visible improvement can be seen in construction, manufacturing, and finance and insurance. In construction, the indicator rose from minus 4.7 to minus 0.7 points and now stands clearly above its long-term average. This suggests that, despite still-negative assessments, the sector’s situation is better than it was a year ago.
Sector divergence has been visible for months
A broader view of the data suggests that the June reading is not a one-off fluctuation. Financial and insurance activities continue to maintain a relatively high level of confidence, although a gradual cooling has been visible in recent months. Accommodation and food services are rebuilding momentum after a weaker autumn and winter period.
Manufacturing, meanwhile, remains under pressure and, despite a temporary improvement at the start of the year, continues to stay below zero. Construction is improving, but has not yet regained a sustained edge on the optimistic side. The differences between sectors are now greater than they were several months ago, making it harder to form a single diagnosis for the entire economy.
Companies view the present more favourably than the future
The most important signal from the June survey is not limited to the level of the overall indicators. More significant is the widening gap between companies’ assessment of current conditions and their expectations for the next three months. In most sectors, the diagnostic component remains broadly stable, while the forward-looking component has weakened more clearly.
This means that businesses do not yet see a sharp deterioration in operating conditions, but they are looking at the near future with greater reserve. Such a pattern often accompanies periods in which companies become less willing to take risks, postpone investment decisions and plan spending more cautiously.
The clearest contrast can be seen in financial and insurance activities. The current assessment reached a very high plus 46.2 points, while expectations for the coming months fell to plus 2.5 points. A similar, though less pronounced, pattern can also be observed in manufacturing and retail trade.
Accommodation and food services are the exception. In this sector, expectations for the next three months reached plus 28.8 points and clearly exceeded the assessment of current conditions. This shows that businesses are counting on a seasonal rise in demand and stronger results during the holiday period.
Hiring plans remain stable, while pay decisions depend on company finances
Questions relating to the labour market confirm that businesses are currently pursuing a cautious strategy. Over the next three months, the overwhelming majority of companies plan to keep employment at current levels. This is particularly true for workers who are relatively easy to replace.
The largest share of businesses considering headcount reductions can be found in manufacturing and wholesale trade. At the same time, accommodation and food services show the strongest willingness to increase staffing levels. The seasonal nature of activity is likely to be an important factor in this case.
The survey also highlights a shift in the factors shaping wage policy. Across all sectors analysed, the most frequently cited influence on pay decisions in the coming months is the financial condition of the company. Between 61% and 66% of respondents identified it as a significant factor.
Inflationary pressure remains important, but it is cited less often than a company’s own financial position. This suggests that businesses are becoming less likely to treat pay rises as an automatic response to higher prices. Profitability, order volumes and the ability to pass costs on to customers are playing an increasingly important role.
Key takeaway for managers: the economy is not signalling a sharp deterioration, but weaker expectations combined with stable assessments of current conditions are a clear sign of caution. Companies are not yet cutting costs on a broad scale, but they are increasingly delaying growth decisions, planning recruitment more carefully and linking pay policy to their own financial performance.
What the June survey shows
Key conclusions
- Expectations are weakening faster than current assessments. Businesses do not yet see a major deterioration in operating conditions, but they are becoming more cautious about the next quarter.
- Finance remains in the lead, but is losing momentum. The financial sector still records the highest business climate reading, although it has fallen below its long-term average and expectations have weakened markedly.
- Accommodation and food services are the bright spot. The sector posted the strongest month-on-month improvement and expects further support from seasonal demand.
- Manufacturing remains the weak link. The sector’s indicator deteriorated again and remains clearly below its long-term average.
- The labour market is largely frozen. Most companies plan to keep employment unchanged, while pay decisions are increasingly determined by company finances rather than inflation alone.
In the coming months, the key question will be whether weaker business expectations translate into real cuts in investment, hiring and spending. For now, the data point more to caution than to a clear deterioration in economic conditions. Summer readings will show whether seasonal demand can improve sentiment beyond tourism- and hospitality-related services.
Data for June 2026, non-seasonally adjusted unless stated otherwise. Source: Statistics Poland (GUS), “Business Tendency Survey – June 2026”, Enterprise Department. Own calculations based on GUS data. The survey is co-financed by the European Union.
