Poland’s June PENGAB index rose to 37.7 points, driven mainly by a clear improvement in assessments of demand for consumer and mortgage loans. At the same time, bankers are becoming increasingly cautious about the outlook for the economy, businesses and households, with forecasts for corporate investment financing looking particularly weak.
Banking sector sentiment improves, but expectations deteriorate
The June PENGAB index increased to 37.7 points, supported by a sharp improvement in current assessments of the consumer and mortgage lending markets. At the same time, bankers’ six-month forecasts for the national economy, businesses and households worsened again, creating a growing divide between a stronger present and an uncertain future.
June 2026 · Based on the Banking Monitor survey by the Polish Bank Association and Minds & Roses
| Indicator | Reading | Monthly change |
|---|---|---|
| PENGAB index – banking sentiment | 37.7 | +3.1 pts |
| Current assessments indicator | 37.3 | +9.0 pts |
| Forecast indicator | 38.0 | −2.8 pts |
| Six-month outlook for the national economy | −8 | −18 pts year on year |
The monthly business sentiment survey conducted among bank branches as part of the Banking Monitor measures sentiment through the balance of responses, calculated as the difference between the share of positive and negative assessments. The June reading points to a gradual rebuilding of a more stable trend, but its structure is clearly split: the rise in the overall index was driven by improved current assessments, while expectations for the next six months weakened.
Current assessments: sharp rebound in household lending
The strongest signal in June was a marked improvement in assessments of customer activity in the household lending market. The balance of assessments for consumer loans rose by 26 points month on month to 46, while the balance for mortgage loans increased by 27 points to 42.
These were significant increases, consistent with an environment of lower interest rates, which reduce borrowing costs and stimulate demand for credit.
On the deposit side, the strongest increase was recorded in the balance of assessments for corporate current deposits, which rose by 45 points. This usually reflects the accumulation of liquidity in business accounts.
At the other end of the spectrum were corporate term deposits, which fell by 22 points, and business investment loans, which declined by 9 points. These segments are most closely linked to companies’ growth and investment decisions.
Forecasts: households improve, businesses deteriorate
The picture for expectations is far less clear. In six-month forecasts, improvements were recorded for consumer loans, where the balance reached 63 points after increasing by 18 points month on month, and for long-term deposits held by individual customers, where the balance rose by 21 points to 21.
The direction for businesses was the opposite and clearly negative. The forecast for corporate investment loans fell by 21 points month on month to 24, and by as much as 53 points year on year. Forecasts for working-capital loans declined by 20 points to 40, while expectations for long-term corporate deposits fell by 27 points to minus 17.
This divergence captures the essence of the June reading. Bankers expect further improvement in the retail segment, including household borrowing and savings, but are losing confidence in demand for corporate financing, especially investment lending. The year-on-year collapse in investment loan forecasts, down 53 points, is among the steepest declines across the survey.
Macroeconomic outlook: six-month expectations weaken further
The most concerning element of the June survey is the deterioration in six-month macroeconomic forecasts across all three areas analysed. The outlook for the national economy is rated the lowest, with a balance of minus 8 points, down 8 points month on month and 18 points year on year.
The forecast for businesses stands at minus 1 point, but is 25 points lower than a year earlier. The outlook for households is also negative, at minus 2 points, following a 12-point decline year on year.
| Six-month outlook | Balance | Monthly change | Annual change |
|---|---|---|---|
| National economy | −8 | −8 | −18 |
| Households | −2 | −4 | −12 |
| Businesses | −1 | −1 | −25 |
Interest rates, inflation and exchange rates
The backdrop to the recovery in lending is the interest-rate cutting cycle. The balance of assessments of changes in loan interest rates remains negative, ranging from minus 8 to minus 12 points across individual segments. This confirms that banks are continuing to reduce the cost of financing.
The impact of this can also be seen in responses to an additional survey question. In June, 44% of respondents observed increased interest in variable-rate mortgages, although 48% expressed the opposite view.
Bankers expect inflation between December 2025 and December 2026 to remain close to 4.9%. In exchange-rate forecasts for the end of the following month, stability remains the dominant expectation: the US dollar is projected at around PLN 3.69, the euro at PLN 4.27 and the Swiss franc at PLN 4.62.
A banking market moving at two speeds
The June PENGAB reading paints a picture of a market moving at two speeds. Lower interest rates are reviving retail lending, both consumer and mortgage credit, but they are not translating into optimism about corporate financing or the broader economic outlook over the next six months.
Key conclusions
- The rise in the index was driven by current assessments. PENGAB increased to 37.7 points mainly because of the sharp rise in the current assessments indicator, up 9.0 points, while the forecast indicator fell by 2.8 points.
- Retail lending is recovering as interest rates decline. Current assessments of consumer loans rose by 26 points and mortgage loans by 27 points, confirming the impact of cheaper financing on demand.
- Business financing is weakening. Forecasts for corporate investment loans fell by 21 points month on month and 53 points year on year, while working-capital loan forecasts dropped by 20 points. Bankers do not see a strong investment impulse from businesses.
- Macroeconomic pessimism is deepening. Six-month forecasts for the national economy, businesses and households all declined, signalling growing uncertainty about the coming half-year.
- The environment supports households, not investment. Lower rates, stable exchange rates and expected inflation near 4.9% support mortgage lending, but are not rebuilding companies’ appetite for development financing.
For financial-sector executives, the key question is whether the divergence between recovering retail activity and weakening corporate expectations will prove lasting. If macroeconomic pessimism begins to translate into real business decisions, the recovery in household lending may not be enough to sustain momentum across the broader banking market in the second half of the year.
