In the first quarter of 2026, the Polish economy generated PLN 949.8 billion in GDP at current prices — 6.4% more than a year earlier. The deficit of the general government sector narrowed year on year, but for the whole of 2025 it reached a record 7.3% of GDP. Companies are increasing profits faster than investment, while households are gradually rebuilding their savings rate after years of high inflation.
GDP in Q1 2026 up 6.4% y/y in nominal terms, public-sector deficit lower than a year earlier
GDP and national income: where part of the product disappears
In 2025, the Polish economy generated PLN 3,912.7 billion in GDP at current prices — 6.6% more than in 2024. Gross national income, however, which is GDP adjusted for the balance of property and labour income flowing abroad, amounted to PLN 3,769.9 billion. The difference of PLN 142.7 billion, or 3.6% of GDP, shows the scale of funds that flow out of Poland each year in the form of profits, dividends and interest paid to foreign owners of capital invested in the country. Gross savings of the whole economy reached PLN 676.7 billion, or 18.0% of gross disposable income. In 2025 as a whole, the economy remained a net borrower of capital from abroad, with net lending/net borrowing at PLN -18.8 billion, although in Q1 2026 the balance turned positive at PLN +2.4 billion, compared with PLN +1.2 billion a year earlier.
Institutional-sector balances: who lends and who borrows
Sector accounts show a clear and persistent division of roles in the Polish economy. The general government sector is the only permanent net borrower. Its deficit increased from PLN 17.0 billion in 2019, or 0.7% of GDP, to PLN 284.0 billion in 2025, or 7.3% of GDP. In relation to GDP, this represents a tenfold increase and exceeds even the peak recorded in the pandemic year of 2020, when the deficit stood at 6.9% of GDP. At the same time, non-financial corporations and financial institutions remain stable net lenders to the rest of the economy, while the household balance is the most volatile. It was clearly negative in 2021-2023, during the inflation peak, before rebounding to PLN +87.7 billion in 2024 and PLN +101.5 billion in 2025.
Non-financial corporations: profits are growing faster than investment
The gross operating surplus of the non-financial corporate sector, an approximate measure of profit before interest, tax and depreciation, amounted to PLN 179.8 billion in Q1 2026 — 9.0% more than a year earlier. Gross fixed capital formation grew more slowly, by 7.7% y/y, to PLN 64.5 billion. In the whole of 2025, the operating surplus reached PLN 788.1 billion, while investment amounted to PLN 316.1 billion. The sector remained a net lender at PLN 147.4 billion, generating more funds than it spent on investment and other expenditure.
Households: the savings rate is returning to normal
The household savings rate, defined as the ratio of gross savings to gross disposable income, was just 4.8% in 2023 — the lowest level in the analysed period and a result of real incomes being eroded by high inflation. In 2024 it rose to 8.9%, and in 2025 to 9.2%. The indicator follows a strong quarterly seasonal pattern: it is usually lowest at the beginning of the year and highest in the fourth quarter. In Q1 2026, it stood at 0.7% — higher than -0.2% a year earlier, but still typically low for the first quarter.
Summary: Q1 2025 compared with Q1 2026
| Indicator | Q1 2025 | Q1 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP (PLN bn, current prices) | 892.2 | 949.8 | +6.4% |
| General government balance (PLN bn) | -19.0 | -15.5 | +PLN 3.5 bn |
| Corporate operating surplus (PLN bn) | 165.0 | 179.8 | +9.0% |
| Corporate investment (PLN bn) | 59.9 | 64.5 | +7.7% |
| Household savings rate | -0.2% | 0.7% | +0.9 pp |
| Overall economy balance with the rest of the world (PLN bn) | +1.2 | +2.4 | +PLN 1.2 bn |
Since 2019, the general government deficit as a share of GDP has increased almost tenfold, from 0.7% to 7.3%, even though companies and households remain net savers. Today, it is the public sector — not the behaviour of firms or consumers — that is the main source of the Polish economy’s need for external financing.
- GDP in Q1 2026 increased by 6.4% y/y in nominal terms. The data are expressed at current prices, so they do not reflect real volume growth, only the value measured in zloty.
- The public-sector deficit narrowed year on year in Q1 2026, but for 2025 as a whole it reached 7.3% of GDP — the highest level in the analysed period and even higher than in pandemic-hit 2020.
- Non-financial corporations are increasing their operating surplus faster than investment, with growth of 9.0% compared with 7.7% y/y — a sign of capital accumulation worth watching in the context of future investment decisions.
- The household savings rate stabilised in 2025 at 9.2%, almost twice as high as in 2023. Consumers are rebuilding financial buffers after the period of high inflation.
- The gap between GDP and gross national income, equal to 3.6% of GDP in 2025, shows the scale of returns on foreign capital flowing out of Poland — an important context when assessing the ownership structure of the domestic economy.
Source: Statistics Poland data, non-financial accounts by institutional sector. Own compilation based on Statistics Poland data.
