At its July meeting, the Monetary Policy Council left interest rates unchanged. The reference rate of the National Bank of Poland has remained at 3.75 percent since March 2026, and the decision was in line with market expectations, coming as no surprise to investors.
The latest inflation data, however, were of much greater significance. Both the May and June consumer inflation readings positively surprised the market. In June, inflation stood at 2.5 percent year on year, reaching the NBP’s inflation target and coming in below market forecasts of 2.7 percent. In May, the CPI stood at 3.1 percent, while the consensus had pointed to 3.7 percent.
It was precisely these better-than-expected inflation figures that led to a revision of expectations regarding the future path of interest rates. Currently, both economists and representatives of the Monetary Policy Council, including the NBP governor, indicate that the most likely scenario is for interest rates to remain at their current level in the coming quarters. This means that the market expects monetary policy to stabilise, which supports greater predictability of investment conditions.
However, one factor that could change this scenario in the near term is the geopolitical situation. A further escalation of the Iran–US conflict is increasing uncertainty in financial markets, primarily through the risk of further rises in energy prices. If tensions persist, they could once again trigger inflationary pressure and influence expectations regarding the future path of interest rates.
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