Morningstar DBRS lowered Poland’s long-term local- and foreign-currency sovereign ratings from A to A (low) on 6 November, citing deteriorating public finances. It changed the trend on those ratings from negative to stable.

Photo: Oleg Zarevennyi / Unsplash

By Adam Ujazdowski. Adapted from the Polish original, published on 7 November 2026.

Short-term ratings remained at R-1 (low), with a stable trend. The agency said revenue growth had failed to cover increases in public spending, social transfers, defence expenditure and interest costs.

Debt rises as deficits remain high

International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts cited in the report put Poland’s general government deficit at 7.2% of GDP in 2026 and 7% in 2027. Gross debt is projected to rise from 66.6% of GDP to 73.7% in 2028. DBRS does not expect a significant fiscal improvement before the 2027 parliamentary election.

Economic outlook supports the rating

The agency remains positive about Poland’s economic prospects, although it cites a forecast slowdown in GDP growth from 3.4% in 2026 to 2.5% in 2027. Domestic demand and membership of the European Union and NATO remain sources of support. High energy prices pose a risk.

A sustained reduction in the debt-to-GDP ratio, or reforms strengthening institutions and the economy’s potential, could support an upgrade. A further downgrade remains possible if the debt burden increases significantly or institutional quality deteriorates.

On the same day, S&P lowered Poland’s long-term local-currency rating from A to A− and changed the outlook on both long-term ratings to negative. It kept the foreign-currency rating at A−.

Sources: Morningstar DBRS, “Morningstar DBRS Downgrades Republic of Poland to A (low), Trend Changed to Stable”, 6 November 2026; Polish Ministry of Finance statement on S&P’s decision, 6 November 2026.