mBank Trims Polish Rate-Hike Forecast to 50 Basis Points, Sees First Move in January

mBank economists now expect Poland’s central bank to raise interest rates by a total of 50 basis points, down from the 75 basis points they forecast in October. That would take the reference rate from 3.75% to 4.25%, with the first increase most likely in January 2027 and another possible in March.

By Adam Ujazdowski. English adaptation of the Polish article, originally published on 9 November 2026.

The revised forecast, published on 9 November, follows the Monetary Policy Council’s decision on 4 November to leave the reference rate at 3.75%. The council sets interest rates for Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP), Poland’s central bank.

Fuel and gas prices in focus before December meeting

Annual inflation fell to 3.5% in October from 4.1% in September, according to a flash estimate from Statistics Poland (GUS). That puts it at the upper edge of the tolerance band around the NBP’s 2.5% target. However, the central bank’s November projection puts average annual inflation in 2027 at 4.2% if interest rates remain unchanged, up from the 2.7% forecast in July.

At the press conference following the November meeting, NBP Governor Adam Glapiński said higher fuel prices were having only a limited effect on the prices of other goods and services. Ahead of the next meeting on 1–2 December, mBank economists are watching proposed measures to cushion gas prices and a possible extension of the government’s “Ceny Paliwa Niżej” programme to lower fuel prices. In its current form, the programme runs until the end of the year.

mBank considers a December rate increase less likely than a January move. An earlier increase remains possible, however, if inflation exceeds 3.5% or the data show a rise in core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices.

January outlook hinges on tariffs and council membership

According to mBank, Poland’s Energy Regulatory Office (URE) is due to decide on household electricity and gas tariffs after the December meeting. If prices rise more sharply than the NBP has assumed, inflation in 2027 could be well above 4%, even if fuel-price support is extended through March. That would make a January rate increase more likely.

Changes in the council’s membership could also affect the January vote. Poland’s president has appointed Ludwik Kotecki and Przemysław Litwiniuk to the NBP’s Management Board, while Marcin Zarzecki is due to take up his role on 2 January 2027. If their replacements on the Monetary Policy Council have not been appointed before its January meeting, the council could meet with fewer members.

mBank economists also consider a scenario in which rates do not rise at all. If safe, cheaper shipping through the Strait of Hormuz can be restored by January, pressure from fuel prices could ease. In that scenario, weaker economic conditions could shift the council’s attention towards rate cuts.

Sources: mBank’s analysis “NBP Rates: Walking a Fine Line”, dated 9 November 2026; NBP; Statistics Poland; Poland’s Ministry of Energy; and the Chancellery of the President of the Republic of Poland.