The dollar weakened at the start of the week as the euro rose nearly 0.5% towards $1.12 and WTI crude fell below $90 a barrel. Stronger-than-expected US jobs data failed to support the currency as falling oil prices and a rebound in equities encouraged investors to take on more risk.
Market commentary by Krzysztof Pawlak, currency analyst at Walutomat.pl. The Polish original was published on 9 November 2026.
Stronger US jobs data fail to lift the dollar
The rise in EUR/USD is somewhat surprising given that the latest US labour-market figures would normally favour the dollar. Non-farm payrolls increased by 165,000, well above the 65,000 forecast, while unemployment fell to 4.1%.
Annual growth in hourly earnings also exceeded expectations in October, reaching 3.1% against a forecast of 2.9%. The figures pushed the probability of a US interest-rate increase at the December meeting to 80%.
Yet the dollar is losing ground. In Pawlak’s assessment, falling oil prices have increased risk appetite, while a recovery in stock markets has reduced demand for the US currency as a safe haven, at least for now.
US consumer price index (CPI) data due on Tuesday could change the picture. The consensus forecast is for a smaller month-on-month increase than in the previous month. Such a reading could reduce the probability of a December rate rise and prolong the dollar’s weakness.
WTI drops below $90 as hopes of de-escalation grow
Oil prices are extending a decline that began last week. Investors increasingly expect that the United States will refrain from another attack on targets in Iran and that the conflict can be resolved diplomatically.
Donald Trump has softened his previously aggressive rhetoric, saying in his latest interview that a new offensive was “highly unlikely”. Pawlak cautions that markets have once again become heavily committed to a de-escalation scenario: a single serious incident in the region could reverse sentiment.
WTI crude is down more than 3%, taking the price below $90 a barrel. That offers some relief from inflationary pressure. The analyst nevertheless urges caution over the US president’s next moves: the softer tone following the election defeat may be temporary, rather than evidence of a lasting change in his approach to Iran.
China’s producer prices rise faster than consumer prices
Chinese producer price data show how expensive oil is affecting manufacturers. The producer price index (PPI) rose 5.7% year on year in October, above analysts’ forecast of 5.3%, marking the fastest increase in four years. Higher energy commodity prices, particularly oil and gas, were the main driver.
Consumer inflation figures released the same day painted a different picture. China’s CPI rose just 0.7% year on year in October, below the expected 0.8%.
Companies are therefore facing rising costs without a corresponding pass-through to consumers. Pawlak argues that this may, for example, indicate weak domestic demand.
Exports remain a pillar of the Chinese economy. They surged 36.3% in September, far exceeding the 25.5% forecast and recording their strongest growth in more than seven months. China has also benefited from the artificial intelligence boom, with high-tech products driving exports.
