WEATHER: The world is potentially facing one of the most powerful El Niño weather events in history. The impacts would be numerous, global, and an additional burden on top of existing climate change trends. This would drive further agricultural and energy commodity disruption, support extreme weather stocks, and is already being blamed for everything from Panama Canal trade restrictions to a busier-than-hoped Atlantic hurricane season. The El Niño is forecast to last into next year, with a typical November-January winter peak, and a 2/3 chance it develops into a historically ‘strong’ event. These are rare (see chart), seen only four times before in the last 75 years. The most recent was in 2015, the hottest year on record, and with widespread weather disruption.
DROUGHT: El Niño is being blamed for contributing to Panama’s second worst ever drought. This has already restricted shipping passage through its 80km canal connecting the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, which is a key artery and cost-saver for the 90% of global trade moved by sea. These canal restrictions are delaying cargoes and boosting shipping rates. Shanghai – New York container freight rates are up 40% from their recent June lows, to $3,500/40ft. Last year 14,000 ships, carrying 290 million tonnes of cargo, transited the canal, paying $3 billion in tolls.
HURRICANES: El Niño unpredictability is also impacting the Atlantic hurricane season. This annual threat to US gasoline, LNG, and insurance markets typically sees less activity in an El Niño year, but it’s not playing out that way. The US Climate Prediction Center just doubled the chance of an above-average hurricane season to 60%, with 2-5 major hurricanes expected. The ‘season’ runs for six months to November 30th and is now entering its traditional two-month peak.
Ben Laidler, eToro’s Global Market Strategist
