Polish inflation holds steady. Suez Canal blockade fears loom


November turned out to be the first month since February when the pace of price increases did not slow down. On the other hand, gas, which is often used for heating in this part of the world, is becoming cheaper. There is chaos at the Suez Canal.

Inflation in Poland Did Not Fall After All

Final data on inflation in Poland shows that the annual rate is 6.6%. In theory, this is only a 0.1% upward correction. The problem is this correction results in no decrease in inflation. We have a retention of last month’s result. We’ll see how December is, but after sharp falls in September and October, many people believed in a much better result. On the other hand, the persistent inflation benefits the value of the Zloty. It pushes back the timing of interest rate cuts. If the lack of deflation resulted in interest rate cuts starting later in Poland than in the euro zone, we can expect peaks in the value of the Zloty against the euro.

Cheap Gas for the Holidays

The topic of gas prices often returns as a scare in the heating season. However, this year November ended with about a 10% discount on gas, and we are now crossing the 20% markdown. Analysts point to several independent factors as reasons for the decrease. On one hand, looking out the window, we see that it is quite warm for this time of year. Not as warm as last year’s New Year’s Eve, but warm. In addition, there are high inventory levels. Combined with lower consumption so far, this creates a great sense of security for surviving the winter. The price of 33 euros per megawatt-hour is the lowest level since early September, which doesn’t mean we should expect prices to continue falling at this rate.

Chaos at the Suez Canal

Israel’s military operation in the Gaza Strip is not being well received in the Arab world, to put it mildly. Yemeni militias decided to put pressure on world opinion by attacking ships traveling through the Suez Canal. In theory, these are only ships carrying goods to and from Israel. The result is that companies are declaring a halt to movement in that area. This is an important event because if there is a blockade of the canal, the losses will be huge. Around 10% of sea traffic in the world takes this route. We remember the effects of the canal blockade by the Evergreen ship. If the situation escalates, we can expect many problems, including rising oil prices.

Today in the macroeconomic data calendar, it’s worth paying attention to:

14:00 – Poland – core inflation.

Maciej Przygórzewski – chief analyst at InternetowyKantor.pl.