IPOPEMA Securities has valued Medicalgorithmics shares at PLN 36, combining the group’s existing ECG diagnostics operation with the potential commercialisation of VCAST. The new technology accounts for most of the estimated equity value and remains subject to substantial clinical and regulatory uncertainty.
VCAST makes up the bulk of the valuation
IPOPEMA valued the core ECG business at an enterprise value of PLN 110.6 million. The VCAST project was valued at PLN 250 million after adjusting for the probability of success. After debt and other adjustments, the estimated equity value came to PLN 338 million.
The analysts applied a risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) framework to VCAST. Their scenario assumes registration in 2027, the beginning of sales in 2028 and eventual annual peak sales of USD 62.5 million. They assign a 75% probability of success to each of the clinical and regulatory stages, implying an aggregate probability of around 56%. VCAST contributes PLN 23.90 a share, approximately 74% of the projected equity value.
Medicalgorithmics financial forecasts
| PLN million | 2025 | 2026F | 2027F | 2028F | 2029F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 31.0 | 45.9 | 52.0 | 59.6 | 66.9 |
| EBITDA | −5.1 | 7.1 | 10.5 | 14.9 | 19.8 |
| Net profit | −11.7 | −3.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 2.4 |
IPOPEMA forecasts an improvement in EBITDA margin to 29.5% by 2029. The estimates assume an expanding scale of diagnostic services and a gradual return to net profitability.
Preliminary Q3 sales increase
Medicalgorithmics reported preliminary Q3 2026 revenue of PLN 10.9 million, up 52% year on year. US sales rose 102% to PLN 4.4 million. IPOPEMA projects Q3 adjusted EBITDA of around PLN 1.6 million, EBIT around PLN 0.1 million and a net loss of PLN 3.5 million, including effects from a one-off debt-conversion provision.
Commercialisation is not assured
Clinical trial setbacks, delays in regulatory clearance, reimbursement arrangements, competition, foreign exchange and partner dependence could materially change the estimate. Approval of a medical technology does not guarantee adoption or sales at the scale included in the model.
Source: IPOPEMA Securities research, WSE Analytical Coverage Support Programme. Forecasts and valuation are analyst scenarios, not reported future results. Original Polish article.
