The share of employees in Poland expecting a pay rise is falling, while more workers now assume their wages will remain unchanged, according to the “Labour Market Barometer 2026” by Gi Group Holding. Employers, meanwhile, are maintaining a cautious approach to pay policy. For the next quarter, 52.4% of companies plan to keep salaries at their current level, 29.4% intend to raise them, and 3.5% are considering wage cuts.
Although wage expectations remain relatively high, they have been weakening for several years. According to the report, 53.4% of employees expect a pay increase in the coming months. This is 2.6 percentage points less than a year ago, 6.2 percentage points less than two years ago and 8.1 percentage points less than three years ago. At the same time, the share of employees expecting no change in their pay has risen to around 35%, compared with about 33% last year, 30.7% in 2024 and 26.2% in 2023.
Pay rise expectations are highest among employees aged 45–54, where 60.9% expect higher salaries. Managers and senior specialists are also relatively optimistic, with 59% of respondents in both groups expecting increases. Employees in transport and logistics, as well as trade, also stand out, with 59.8% and 56.3% respectively expecting pay growth. Women are more likely than men to expect a raise — nearly 60% compared with 47.5% of men.
The report also shows that expectations differ depending on income level. The strongest pay rise expectations are seen among employees earning between PLN 5,000 and PLN 9,999 net per month, where 56–57% expect an increase. By contrast, the lowest expectations are recorded among workers aged 55 and over, lower-level employees and those earning more than PLN 10,000 net per month.
Employees are also becoming more moderate in terms of the size of expected pay increases. This year, 37.5% of respondents expect a rise of between 11% and 20%, compared with 44% last year. At the same time, more employees now expect increases of up to 10% — around 30% of respondents, compared with 26% in 2025. Higher increases are expected mainly by employees aged 18–24, workers in transport and logistics, and people earning more than PLN 10,000 net per month.
“Wage expectations are clearly being gradually toned down, which may result from the scale of previous increases, as well as from employees taking a more realistic view of market conditions and recognising the impact of economic uncertainty on companies’ situation. The differences in expectations depending on industry, age or gender show the complexity of the current labour market. The attitude of women is particularly noteworthy, as they are more likely than men to expect pay rises, which may be linked to EU regulations aimed at reducing the gender pay gap,” said Anna Wesołowska, Managing Director at Gi Group.
Medium and large companies more likely to plan pay increases
Employers’ declarations regarding pay plans for the next quarter are broadly similar to last year’s. More than half of companies, 52.4%, plan to maintain wages at their current level. A further 29.4% intend to introduce pay rises, compared with 28.2% in 2025. The share of companies considering wage cuts has decreased slightly, from 4.5% last year to 3.5%.
According to the “Labour Market Barometer 2026”, medium-sized and large companies are the most likely to plan salary increases. In both groups, 31.2% of employers declare such plans, a clear increase compared with last year, when around a quarter of companies of this size intended to raise wages. The situation is different among small firms, where the share of employers planning pay rises has fallen by 7 percentage points, from nearly 33% to just under 26%.
Sectoral differences are also visible. In 2026, pay rise plans are most often declared by companies in the public sector and in transport and logistics, with 31.8% of employers in both areas planning increases. This marks a significant change from 2025, when these sectors were among the most cautious and only 24% of companies in them planned pay rises. In trade, however, the share of employers planning wage increases has fallen sharply to 20.5%, compared with nearly 33% a year earlier.
“The data on companies’ pay plans for the next quarter show that employers continue to take a cautious approach to remuneration policy. However, it is worth noting the differences depending on company size. In medium-sized and large enterprises, the share of organisations planning pay increases has risen clearly, while in small companies it has fallen significantly,” said Agnieszka Żak, Key Account Director at Gi Group.
Minimum wage and inflation remain key drivers
As in the previous year, the main reason for increasing wages remains the rise in the minimum wage, cited by 68.3% of employers, compared with 64.5% last year. Inflation is the second most important factor, mentioned by 42.3% of companies, an increase of 4.2 percentage points year on year.
However, the report points to a growing role of employers’ willingness to recognise and reward employees. This year, 39.2% of companies cited appreciation of staff as a reason for raising pay, compared with 30.2% last year. The change is particularly visible in large organisations, where 46% of employers mentioned this motive — 23 percentage points more than a year earlier.
This factor has also gained importance in trade and industry. In trade, 55% of companies cited employee appreciation as a reason for pay increases, an increase of 20 percentage points year on year. In industry, the figure reached 43%, up 14 percentage points from last year.
More than 28% of companies also raise wages in order to reduce employee turnover, compared with 26.4% last year. This motive is more often indicated by smaller companies and has gained particular importance in services, where it was cited by 38% of firms, up 7 percentage points year on year. By contrast, it has become less common in industry, falling to 20% from 32% last year.
Almost one in five companies, 19.4%, say they are increasing wages to align them with market levels. This is more often the case among medium-sized and large organisations, as well as companies in the services sector.
“This year’s survey results show that although external factors such as the minimum wage and inflation still have the strongest impact on pay rise decisions, motivations related to appreciating employees and counteracting turnover are becoming increasingly important. This is an important change, showing not only an understanding of employees’ expectations, but also of what motivates them. For employees, financial issues remain the most important factor when making career decisions,” said Ewa Michalska, Operations Director at Grafton Recruitment.
Wage growth has slowed
The report also indicates a slowdown in wage growth dynamics. Both companies and employees confirm that salaries have continued to rise, but at a slower pace and on a more limited scale than in previous years.
In the last quarter, 31% of companies increased wages, compared with 31.8% a year earlier. A further 55.9% kept pay unchanged, almost the same as last year’s 56.3%. Meanwhile, 5.3% of firms reduced wages, compared with 5.1% in the previous year.
Employees’ responses show a somewhat different perspective. The share of workers who said their pay had increased fell by 4.5 percentage points, from 38.9% to 34.6%. Most of these increases were no higher than 10%, a category that accounted for 62.1% of pay rises, compared with 57.9% last year. At the same time, the share of employees whose wages remained unchanged rose by more than 5 percentage points, from 47.6% to 52.8%. A further 13.5% reported a decrease in pay, compared with 12.6% last year.
The youngest employees, aged 18–24, were the most likely to report wage growth in the last quarter, with 44% saying their pay had increased. The lowest shares were recorded among employees aged 45–54 and 55–67, at 23.6% and 25.6% respectively. Pay rises were also more common among junior specialists, while lower-level employees and senior specialists reported increases less frequently.
By sector, pay increases were most often reported in transport and logistics, where 41.4% of employees said their wages had risen, and in trade, at 39.3%. Increases were less frequent in services and the public sector, where employees more often reported no change in pay.
Regionally, the highest share of employees reporting wage growth was recorded in the Mazowieckie province, at nearly 38%. The lowest share was reported in Pomorskie, Kujawsko-Pomorskie and Warmińsko-Mazurskie, at around 31%.
The “Labour Market Barometer 2026” is the 20th edition of the report prepared by Gi Group Holding since 2014. It is based on research conducted by SW Research. The employer survey was carried out using the CATI method between 25 February and 9 March 2026, while the employee survey was conducted using the CAWI method between 23 February and 3 March 2026. The report’s partners are the Federation of Polish Entrepreneurs, the Polish HR Forum and the Lewiatan Confederation.
