Poland Recorded a PLN 31 Billion Trade Deficit in 2025

Poland’s foreign trade closed 2025 with a merchandise deficit of PLN 31.0 billion, according to final data from Statistics Poland (GUS), published on July 30, 2026. Exports reached PLN 1,563.6 billion, while imports came in at PLN 1,594.5 billion. Year on year, exports grew 2.6%, but imports accelerated considerably faster, up 4.8%. It is this gap in growth rates, rather than the overall trade volume, that drove the return of a deficit after a period of near-balanced trade.

A swing of more than PLN 33 billion – and a currency effect

The shift in the balance is larger than the export-import growth gap alone would suggest. Based on the year-on-year indices GUS provides, Poland ran a small surplus of roughly PLN 2.5 billion in 2024 – directionally consistent with the surpluses reported directly in foreign currencies (USD 0.7 billion and EUR 0.5 billion). A deficit of PLN 31.0 billion in 2025 therefore represents a balance deterioration of around PLN 33.5 billion within a single year.

It’s worth noting the divergence in export growth across currencies: 2.6% in zloty, but 8.2% in dollars and 4.4% in euro. This reflects zloty appreciation: converting the PLN and USD figures implies the average settlement rate for exports fell from roughly 3.98 PLN/USD in 2024 to about 3.77 PLN/USD in 2025 – an appreciation of around 5.2%. Against the euro, appreciation was far milder, from about 4.32 to 4.24 PLN/EUR, or roughly 1.7%. In other words, part of the apparent “slowdown” in zloty-denominated export and import growth is a statistical effect of a stronger domestic currency, not weaker trade volumes.

Developed economies gain share, Central-Eastern Europe loses ground

The geographic structure of trade continues shifting toward developed economies. Their share of exports rose to 87.2% (from 86.5% a year earlier), with the European Union’s share up to 75.0% (from 74.2%). On the import side, the share of developed economies edged down slightly to 64.6% (from 64.9%), and the EU’s to 52.8% (from 53.0%) – which, combined with faster overall import growth, means imports from developing countries grew fastest of all.

The sharpest contraction was in the share of Central-Eastern European countries (Belarus, Moldova, Russia, and Ukraine): down to 4.8% of exports (from 5.3%) and 1.7% of imports (from 2.1%) – the only country group where both exports and imports fell in nominal zloty terms year on year (down 7.7% and 13.2% respectively).

In value terms, the surplus with developed economies reached PLN 334.0 billion (including PLN 330.7 billion with the EU), and PLN 47.0 billion with Central-Eastern Europe. The overall deficit stems almost entirely from trade with developing countries, where the shortfall reached PLN 411.9 billion – nearly 13 times the size of the total trade deficit.

Germany remains the undisputed leader, China is the fastest-growing partner

Germany remains by far Poland’s largest trading partner, though its share is edging down slightly: to 27.0% of exports (from 27.2%) and 19.1% of imports by country of origin (from 19.2%). The surplus with Germany came to PLN 117.1 billion, slightly below the PLN 120.8 billion recorded a year earlier.

Among the top ten trading partners, export declines were recorded only to the United Kingdom (down 0.6%) and the United States (down 2.0%). On the import side, only shipments from South Korea (down 1.0%) and the United States (down 0.9%) fell – imports from all other major partners grew.

Imports from China grew fastest of all – up 11.8% to PLN 246.5 billion, lifting China’s share of imports by country of origin to 15.5% (from 14.5% a year earlier) and cementing its position as Poland’s second-largest supplier. The top ten partners together accounted for 66.1% of total exports (66.4% in 2024) and 61.6% of total imports (61.2%) – partner concentration therefore remains high and stable.

The logistics-hub effect: where goods “arrive from” versus where they’re made

GUS reports imports on two bases: by country of origin (where the goods were manufactured) and by country of dispatch (the country from which they physically entered Poland). The gap between the two reveals how much merchandise – especially from China – reaches Poland via Western European logistics hubs. Germany’s share of imports by country of dispatch is 25.6%, or 6.5 percentage points higher than by country of origin (19.1%). A similar, smaller effect shows up for the Netherlands (+2.9 points), Belgium (+1.9 points), and Czechia (+1.1 points).

China is the mirror image of this pattern: its share of imports by country of dispatch is just 9.4%, or 6.1 percentage points below its share by country of origin (15.5%) – the gap reflects the fact that a large share of Chinese goods reach Poland after being transshipped through Western European ports and distribution centers rather than arriving directly. A smaller but still notable gap applies to the United States (−1.3 points).

Product mix: machinery still dominates, fuels lose ground sharply

By SITC classification, machinery and transport equipment remains the largest category in both exports (37.1%) and imports (35.7%). This category grew 2.0% y/y in exports and 5.6% in imports. The second-largest export category is manufactured goods classified chiefly by material (16.0% share), followed by miscellaneous manufactured articles (17.9% share, up 4.9%).

The steepest decline was in mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials – down 17.0% in exports and 11.5% in imports, cutting their share to 2.1% and 6.4% of trade respectively. Exports of animal and vegetable oils, fats and waxes also fell (down 8.5%), as did inedible raw materials excluding fuels (down 4.6%). On the import side, almost every other category grew – mineral fuels were the sole category to decline.

Total trade turnover by country group (PLN bn, 2025)

Source: GUS (Statistics Poland). Original analysis based on GUS data.